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He made a giant ruckus complete with mysterious tweets with hashes of secret documents to claim that Japan was going to have mass casualties from their ostensib
by panarky 5y ago
He made a giant ruckus complete with mysterious tweets with hashes of secret documents to claim that Japan was going to have mass casualties from their ostensibly botched covid response.
It's okay to make a giant ruckus about something important that you believe nobody is paying attention to.
And it's okay to be wrong about that.
But it would be nice to see him publicly reckon with how he got it so wrong, and how he's altered how he reasons about the world to avoid getting it that wrong again.
- aikinai 5y agoI was thinking about the exact same thing. I lost most respect for him in that fiasco. He even said he'd stake his reputation on it, so I guess it's appropriate.
- dogecoinbase 5y agoWe should take the man at his word: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241553311024603140 https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241553311024603140 > I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems.
- aikinai 5y agoYes, that was the wording! I couldn’t find the Tweet so I forgot exactly how he phrased it. And yes, that’s exactly what I did.
- panarky 5y agoUntil he publicly reckons with how he got it so wrong, and what he's changed about his reasoning process as a result, we should degrade our estimate of his ability to think through complex problems.
- tomnipotent 5y agoWhy does he owe you something? Should he similarly find every other topic he's been wrong about and make sure to offer apologies and postmortems on his failures? The dude works at Stripe, not someplace influencing government or health policies.
- panarky 5y agoHe doesn't owe me anything. I'm just following his advice and reducing my confidence in his ability to reason about how the world works.
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- tomnipotent 5y agoHe didn't punch a toddler in the face. He was wrong about something in some tweets that probably reached an audience smaller than a mediocre college football game, I don't see how that obligates him to apologize or otherwise prostrate himself.
- nawgz 5y ago> He didn't punch a toddler in the face. If your defense of someone has to start with such a hilarious strawman, it might be an indicator you're defending something not worth your time.
- tomnipotent 5y agoSays the group arguing about someone being wrong on the internet about nothing of importance. https://xkcd.com/386/ https://xkcd.com/386/
- nawgz 5y agoThis discussion itself is of nothing important. However, that doesn't preclude it from being a place where moral relativity exists and can be debated. I am not sure I understand your assumption that the importance of a claim or discussion is related to whether it can be morally judged.
- tomnipotent 5y agoDoesn't mean there's value to it. This is a perfect example of manufactured moral outrage, justified post-hoc. The onus is on the outrage to justify it, not on the accused to defend against it. In this context, someone was expecting another person to exhibit a particular response to earn redemption based on an absolutely benign incident. At a certain point, the yelling just becomes tedious and unproductive regardless of the philosophical value of debate and discussion. "I'm outraged because someone was wrong and no one was hurt and no harm was done" is just hubris.
- solveit 5y agoPatio11 on this: https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/ https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/
- panarky 5y agoAlmost 11,000 words later and his assessment is: "The core result was correct." "This prediction was correct." "I doubt every claim is exactly correct." He refused to even acknowledge how wrong he was, much less grapple with how his methods of research and reasoning got it so wrong.
- tshaddox 5y agoI’ve scanned that 5 mile long article and can’t find any description of what their predictions where other than “it’s going to be worse than what people are saying in March 2020.” What am I missing?
- ohmanjjj 5y agoI am willing to bet Patrick sleeps while wearing a Covid mask.
- barry-cotter 5y agoI kind of doubt it. His entire family got covid already.
- anonymoushn 5y agoHis family got Omicron at the same time that ~everyone with kids in Japan got Omicron. This is consistent with a hefty level of caution.
- jjeaff 5y agoFrom the article linked below, he seems to think that he was largely correct. Is that not the case?