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> It's hard to fathom any rational justification for this. It can only be because they think that it's essential to strike now; they think that if they leave i
by denton-scratch 5y ago
> It's hard to fathom any rational justification for this.
It can only be because they think that it's essential to strike now; they think that if they leave it, terminal decline is inevitable.
This is a military operation that's been planned for years; by 'now', I mean 'this decade'. I imagine they saw the European gas crisis as an opportunity, and one that would slip away quickly if they didn't seize it. That's why it's happened this spring.
That long column: that's mostly logistics for the planned long siege of Kiev. I think those guys have barely begun.
- trashtester 5y agoHmm, I think another reason for this to happen now, is that the border between Belorussia and the Ukraine is covered by the Pripet Marches, that are neary impassible by heavy equipment when not frozen. Without access that way, Russia would have to fight their way from the east, and forced to cross the Dneipr river, which forms a very significant obstacle. This could delay an invasion by a month or more.
- denton-scratch 5y agoYes; there seems to be a Russian column abandoned near the Belarus border, due to getting bogged down in mud, i.e. it's not actually frozen (a couple of days ago it was reported that Kiev was warmer than Manchester, England).