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Russia will first tease and provoke with some nuke in the ocean, then someone's territorial waters, then somewhere in Ukraine, then in some small NATO country l

Russia will first tease and provoke with some nuke in the ocean, then someone's territorial waters, then somewhere in Ukraine, then in some small NATO country like Baltics. Their fucked up bully goal is to be attacked so they can retaliate with full force. They'll go one provoking everyone, but when first soldier will be killed by a NATO soldier (which might not even be factual) it's suddenly a drama and oh no poor Russia is invaded by fascists.

Ourgon 5y ago
Why would Putin - not Russia - be out for nuclear annihilation? What can be gained by provoking such a conflict? Other than some version of apres moi, le deluge I don't see any upside for any country initiating a large-scale nuclear conflict. No, I don't think this is a believable scenario. That does not mean an escalation can not occur, but I think it is far more likely to be initiated by the use of low-yield 'tactical' nuclear weapons with the intent of forcing a surrender. Once that threshold has been crossed the risk of a nuclear exchange rapidly increases, especially when it becomes clear that the radius of destruction from such an attack is rather limited compared to the doom scenarios which have been painted over the decades. This is not a good thing since it makes it more likely for "rational" minds to consider retaliating in a similar fashion.
- dzhiurgis 5y ago
  He's not out for annihilation, he's out there to push limits. The moment he'll be slapped for it he'll cry like a little bitch he is.
- majewsky 5y ago
  Several of my personal friends are wondering if Putin has a cancer diagnosis or such that the world does not know about, and now he's scrambling to secure his legacy. I'm trying to imagine if he would be the person to go "the world has never appreciated me, so if I go out, may as well take the world with me". But in now writing that out, I realize that's literally the villain's motivation in the movie Tenet, so probably a bit too one-dimensional of a motivation (although that character is coincidentally a Russian oligarch).

Ourgon 5y ago

Why would Putin - not Russia - be out for nuclear annihilation? What can be gained by provoking such a conflict? Other than some version of apres moi, le deluge I don't see any upside for any country initiating a large-scale nuclear conflict. No, I don't think this is a believable scenario. That does not mean an escalation can not occur, but I think it is far more likely to be initiated by the use of low-yield 'tactical' nuclear weapons with the intent of forcing a surrender. Once that threshold has been crossed the risk of a nuclear exchange rapidly increases, especially when it becomes clear that the radius of destruction from such an attack is rather limited compared to the doom scenarios which have been painted over the decades. This is not a good thing since it makes it more likely for "rational" minds to consider retaliating in a similar fashion.

dzhiurgis 5y ago
He's not out for annihilation, he's out there to push limits. The moment he'll be slapped for it he'll cry like a little bitch he is.
majewsky 5y ago
Several of my personal friends are wondering if Putin has a cancer diagnosis or such that the world does not know about, and now he's scrambling to secure his legacy. I'm trying to imagine if he would be the person to go "the world has never appreciated me, so if I go out, may as well take the world with me". But in now writing that out, I realize that's literally the villain's motivation in the movie Tenet, so probably a bit too one-dimensional of a motivation (although that character is coincidentally a Russian oligarch).