Yes, that appears to be the growing consensus among experts. But the reason for the "confusion" (the "stumped" in the title) is that Russia has not historicall

Yes, that appears to be the growing consensus among experts. But the reason for the "confusion" (the "stumped" in the title) is that Russia has not historically operated this way under Putin (though it did operate this way under his predecessor). Basically, nothing is happening the way it has happened before (under Putin), and this appears to be a "new normal" (under Putin).