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> It seems like Putin went on tilt. It's hard to fathom any rational justification for this. At least destabilizing Ukraine is necessary to prevent near-term,

> It seems like Putin went on tilt. It's hard to fathom any rational justification for this. At least destabilizing Ukraine is necessary to prevent near-term, rapid decline for the Russian Federation. Ukraine's energy production potential and proximity to Europe make them a likely serious competitor, at a time when renewables are already putting pressure on petrostates like Russia. Russia made Ukrainian resources in the East difficult to exploit with their fomenting or fabricating a persistent rebellion out that way, and seized most of Ukraine's substantial resources in the Black Sea when they took Crimea outright—but Crimea's dependent on Ukrainian fresh water, which has quite literally dried up for obvious reasons, and Russia's having a hell of a time (that is, spending huge amounts of money to limited effect) supporting Crimea without holding some of the mainland. This is part of a series of actions aimed at creating short- and mid-term economic stability for Russia, while also improving their strategic situation. I would guess that an acceptable, if not perfect, outcome for them would be bringing the Eastern ~1/3 to 1/2 of Ukraine under Russian control, and it looks like they may yet manage to play their hand to effect such a partition, despite their bizarrely-inept invasion. It does appear that they've blundered, overall, and not just though military fuck-ups—the sanctions are likely causing a ton of pain, NATO and the EU are more united against them than they've been in a long time and are re-arming (as in Germany), and they managed to bump energy independence way up the priority list for the EU. However, there are good reasons for them to (have tried to) do what they're doing.

trashtester 5y ago
I suppose this was a huge miscalculation. As far as I can see, the effect will be as follows: - EU countries are re-arming (Germany in particular). If they go through with that, they will be able to surpass Russia in terms of conventional force strength in a few years, even without US support. - The EU will remove their dependency on Russian oil&gas, removing Russian leverage and profits at the same time. - Even if Russia is able to gain military control of the Ukrain, it will take decades of suppression for them to derive any net economic benefit. And by doing this, they will continously remind the world that they are the "bad guys", ensuring continues isolation.
antisthenes 5y ago
> This is part of a series of actions aimed at creating short- and mid-term economic stability for Russia, while also improving their strategic situation I don't know if you're fully aware of what effect the sanctions are having or going to have on Russia, but anything resembling economic stability is absolutely NOT it. Russia will face a humanitarian crisis, perhaps almost as severe as Ukraine itself, especially in its poorer regions, with anything resembling a tech industry evaporating nearly overnight, and massive unemployment following. These effects will not dissipate in the short or mid-term. At least I don't see them being resolved unless they massively pivot to selling petro-chemicals to China instead.

trashtester 5y ago

I suppose this was a huge miscalculation. As far as I can see, the effect will be as follows: - EU countries are re-arming (Germany in particular). If they go through with that, they will be able to surpass Russia in terms of conventional force strength in a few years, even without US support. - The EU will remove their dependency on Russian oil&gas, removing Russian leverage and profits at the same time. - Even if Russia is able to gain military control of the Ukrain, it will take decades of suppression for them to derive any net economic benefit. And by doing this, they will continously remind the world that they are the "bad guys", ensuring continues isolation.

antisthenes 5y ago

> This is part of a series of actions aimed at creating short- and mid-term economic stability for Russia, while also improving their strategic situation I don't know if you're fully aware of what effect the sanctions are having or going to have on Russia, but anything resembling economic stability is absolutely NOT it. Russia will face a humanitarian crisis, perhaps almost as severe as Ukraine itself, especially in its poorer regions, with anything resembling a tech industry evaporating nearly overnight, and massive unemployment following. These effects will not dissipate in the short or mid-term. At least I don't see them being resolved unless they massively pivot to selling petro-chemicals to China instead.