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The major risk with a Russian conflict is almost any invasion would put NATO troops near the Chinese border. This act would probably draw China into the war. T
by ashwagary 5y ago
The major risk with a Russian conflict is almost any invasion would put NATO troops near the Chinese border.
This act would probably draw China into the war. This is similar to what happened in Korea when American ground troops under MacArthur got too close to the Chinese eastern border.
- acdha 5y agoIt seems unlikely that China’s borders would be relevant in any scenario they wouldn’t support (basically only preemptive attacks on nuclear facilities). They have different leaders now and far more reason to be confident both that NATO has no interest in a war or chance of winning one. It’s also hard to see much interest in a land war on that side of Russia. A nuclear exchange isn’t going to last very long and given Russia’s increasing dependency on China I’d bet on them being more supportive of an effort to oust Putin in favor of someone better for business before it hits that point.
- ashwagary 5y agoI disagree. The freedom of navigation exercises held around China are always denounced by the current leadership. Any "freedom of navigation" during an active conflict with an ally would understandably be considered a potential declaration of war. They may consider the risk too high not to respond, similar to the Korean war. The main difference is they now have a modern military and dont have to rely on rural untrained farmers to win their battles.
- acdha 5y agoWhat scenario do you think is likely where NATO forces would be anywhere near China’s borders?
- ashwagary 5y agoRussia is a massive country with military installations across the whole subcontinent. I expect the defensive and offensive systems on the eastern side would be potential targets in any serious engagement.
- acdha 5y agoYes, but again how likely is a land war to come into the picture? If they're going after, say, airbases they're not doing that with a march from the border.
- Ourgon 5y agoOne of them would be where NATO and Russia end up in a conflict which causes China to decide Siberia needs to be "protected". There are some 35 million Russians living in a region covering 140% of that of China which houses 1.4 billion people. Rich in minerals, forests, water and many other resources it is only a matter of time before a conflict around this region arises.