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I also think this is the most viable offramp. Everyone gets to plausibly claim victory, if not total victory. Russia keeps the money pit dear to the hearts of

I also think this is the most viable offramp. Everyone gets to plausibly claim victory, if not total victory. Russia keeps the money pit dear to the hearts of many Russians and doesn't become a Chinese vassal state. Ukraine ends the bloodshed and saves their sovereignty for the cost of what they have already lost. There will be sticking points, for sure, notably around Putin himself, reparations, and yes, the status of DPR and LPR, but I hold out hope that they don't forestall a potential deal.

denton-scratch 5y ago
Sorry, but I don't think there's an offramp. I can't see the Russian leadership backing down from their stated goals. That means they have to subdue Ukraine, and probably Finland, Estonia and Poland too. If they don't win in at least Ukraine, then they have lost badly, and their economy is destroyed. I don't think they'll settle now for a piece of Crimea or a piece of Donbas. The entire story is that the whole of Ukraine is a bogus state.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > Finland, Estonia and Poland That would be a hell of an escalation. Emphasis on hell. Estonia and Poland are NATO members, which means WW3. And attacking Finland, though not yet a NATO member, would probably invite the largest response from Europe in memory. World war indeed.
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    > which means WW3. Customarily, it's been called a "World War" when both sides have participants from multiple nations. As far as I'm aware, Russia's only ally would be Belarus, which looks to me like a Russian province in all but name. "WWIII" is a term that also refers to Global Thermonuclear War; if that's what you meant, then I apologise for being pedantic. [Edit] No attack on Poland or the Baltic states is possible without first subduing Ukraine; so I don't think that's at all imminent. But I wouldn't be surprised if Russia pops a tactical nuke or two in Ukraine, then all bets will be off.

denton-scratch 5y ago

Sorry, but I don't think there's an offramp. I can't see the Russian leadership backing down from their stated goals. That means they have to subdue Ukraine, and probably Finland, Estonia and Poland too. If they don't win in at least Ukraine, then they have lost badly, and their economy is destroyed. I don't think they'll settle now for a piece of Crimea or a piece of Donbas. The entire story is that the whole of Ukraine is a bogus state.

rootusrootus 5y ago
> Finland, Estonia and Poland That would be a hell of an escalation. Emphasis on hell. Estonia and Poland are NATO members, which means WW3. And attacking Finland, though not yet a NATO member, would probably invite the largest response from Europe in memory. World war indeed.
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  > which means WW3. Customarily, it's been called a "World War" when both sides have participants from multiple nations. As far as I'm aware, Russia's only ally would be Belarus, which looks to me like a Russian province in all but name. "WWIII" is a term that also refers to Global Thermonuclear War; if that's what you meant, then I apologise for being pedantic. [Edit] No attack on Poland or the Baltic states is possible without first subduing Ukraine; so I don't think that's at all imminent. But I wouldn't be surprised if Russia pops a tactical nuke or two in Ukraine, then all bets will be off.