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> why Russia is going with this strategy Because this isn't the intended strategy, but rather then resultant strategy. Modern Russia seems to suffer from the
by ethbr0 5y ago
> why Russia is going with this strategy
Because this isn't the intended strategy, but rather then resultant strategy.
Modern Russia seems to suffer from the same weaknesses as the USSR: garbage-in, garbage-out. If you staff an entire bureaucracy (including your military command structure) with Yes-Men, you get "Yes" responses.
When the question is "Are we prepared for the invasion?"
When the question is "Will we be able to supply our ground forces?"
When the question is "Will we be able to achieve air superiority rapidly?"
And because that's how hierarchies work, you believe the "Yes" you hear. And make your strategic plans on the basis of it being true.
Consequently, Russia appears to have built an entire invasion plan on a not-insignificant number of lies about their own forces, as communicated by their own mid-level leadership.
Imho, that explains things pretty simply and fully.
- gamblor956 5y agoYes, that appears to be the growing consensus among experts. But the reason for the "confusion" (the "stumped" in the title) is that Russia has not historically operated this way under Putin (though it did operate this way under his predecessor). Basically, nothing is happening the way it has happened before (under Putin), and this appears to be a "new normal" (under Putin).
- dharmab 5y agoOne cause could be the replacement of Minister of Defence from Serdyukov (notable for his anticorruption policies) with Shoygu (alleged yes man)
- GVIrish 5y agoI think this could be a large part of it. Putin's Russia is rife with corruption and cronyism. Those two things can dramatically reduce the effectiveness of a military. To start with, the yes-men problem means significant bad news is often buried not dealt with. It also results in the people who are the best at bs'ing and political manuevering being the ones who rise in the ranks. Your officer corps ends up being filled with people who did not optimize for military competency. Indeed General Shogyu, the Russian Minister of Defense, actually doesn't have a military background. The corruption comes in with logisitical support. With significant levels of corruption you'll find that the amount of parts, munitions, fuel are not what you thought they were. Then you'll also probably have problems with the condition of the stuff you do have. All of those things damage morale, competency, readiness, you name it. So when you actually have to go to war, you might find drastic shortfalls in battlefield performance.