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I have a feeling that the floodgates of shit have opened for Russia and it’s not easy to close them again. Russia thrived off “this is the last time you’re get

I have a feeling that the floodgates of shit have opened for Russia and it’s not easy to close them again. Russia thrived off “this is the last time you’re getting away with this” for decades. Always demanding a 55-45 split, always threatening nuclear war. It generally worked, especially against a fragmented West, where you just had to pick one or two countries to break consensus. But somehow now, as if in a phase transition, all the political dipoles arranged themselves against Russia. Perhaps because it’s one step too far. Perhaps because this time people feel like Russia really is within shooting distance of Europe. Or perhaps because people see that the Emperor is naked and angrily tells people what he will do when he finds a dressing gown, with none in sight. This is another “don’t touch us or we’ll nuke you”, but this is, much like the Ruble, a rapidly devaluing currency. As an aside: given the appalling state of Russian army in Ukraine, I wonder what their super-killer-invincible nuclear weapons are like. Not that I want to test this out.

ashwagary 5y ago
The major risk with a Russian conflict is almost any invasion would put NATO troops near the Chinese border. This act would probably draw China into the war. This is similar to what happened in Korea when American ground troops under MacArthur got too close to the Chinese eastern border.
- acdha 5y ago
  It seems unlikely that China’s borders would be relevant in any scenario they wouldn’t support (basically only preemptive attacks on nuclear facilities). They have different leaders now and far more reason to be confident both that NATO has no interest in a war or chance of winning one. It’s also hard to see much interest in a land war on that side of Russia. A nuclear exchange isn’t going to last very long and given Russia’s increasing dependency on China I’d bet on them being more supportive of an effort to oust Putin in favor of someone better for business before it hits that point.
  - ashwagary 5y ago
    I disagree. The freedom of navigation exercises held around China are always denounced by the current leadership. Any "freedom of navigation" during an active conflict with an ally would understandably be considered a potential declaration of war. They may consider the risk too high not to respond, similar to the Korean war. The main difference is they now have a modern military and dont have to rely on rural untrained farmers to win their battles.
    - acdha 5y ago
      What scenario do you think is likely where NATO forces would be anywhere near China’s borders?
      - ashwagary 5y ago
        Russia is a massive country with military installations across the whole subcontinent. I expect the defensive and offensive systems on the eastern side would be potential targets in any serious engagement.
        acdha 5y ago
        Yes, but again how likely is a land war to come into the picture? If they're going after, say, airbases they're not doing that with a march from the border.
      - Ourgon 5y ago
        One of them would be where NATO and Russia end up in a conflict which causes China to decide Siberia needs to be "protected". There are some 35 million Russians living in a region covering 140% of that of China which houses 1.4 billion people. Rich in minerals, forests, water and many other resources it is only a matter of time before a conflict around this region arises.
taylodl 5y ago
As an aside: given the appalling state of Russian army in Ukraine, I wonder what their super-killer-invincible nuclear weapons are like. Not that I want to test this out. I've been thinking the same thing. It's clear we've been overestimating Russian military capabilities for some time. The West is learning the emperor has no clothes when it comes to the Russian military (in reality it's more like the emperor's clothes aren't made of the finest material as we'd thought). I'm with you though, I really don't want to test out their nuclear capabilities.

ashwagary 5y ago

The major risk with a Russian conflict is almost any invasion would put NATO troops near the Chinese border. This act would probably draw China into the war. This is similar to what happened in Korea when American ground troops under MacArthur got too close to the Chinese eastern border.

acdha 5y ago
It seems unlikely that China’s borders would be relevant in any scenario they wouldn’t support (basically only preemptive attacks on nuclear facilities). They have different leaders now and far more reason to be confident both that NATO has no interest in a war or chance of winning one. It’s also hard to see much interest in a land war on that side of Russia. A nuclear exchange isn’t going to last very long and given Russia’s increasing dependency on China I’d bet on them being more supportive of an effort to oust Putin in favor of someone better for business before it hits that point.
- ashwagary 5y ago
  I disagree. The freedom of navigation exercises held around China are always denounced by the current leadership. Any "freedom of navigation" during an active conflict with an ally would understandably be considered a potential declaration of war. They may consider the risk too high not to respond, similar to the Korean war. The main difference is they now have a modern military and dont have to rely on rural untrained farmers to win their battles.
  - acdha 5y ago
    What scenario do you think is likely where NATO forces would be anywhere near China’s borders?
    - ashwagary 5y ago
      Russia is a massive country with military installations across the whole subcontinent. I expect the defensive and offensive systems on the eastern side would be potential targets in any serious engagement.
      - acdha 5y ago
        Yes, but again how likely is a land war to come into the picture? If they're going after, say, airbases they're not doing that with a march from the border.
    - Ourgon 5y ago
      One of them would be where NATO and Russia end up in a conflict which causes China to decide Siberia needs to be "protected". There are some 35 million Russians living in a region covering 140% of that of China which houses 1.4 billion people. Rich in minerals, forests, water and many other resources it is only a matter of time before a conflict around this region arises.

taylodl 5y ago

As an aside: given the appalling state of Russian army in Ukraine, I wonder what their super-killer-invincible nuclear weapons are like. Not that I want to test this out. I've been thinking the same thing. It's clear we've been overestimating Russian military capabilities for some time. The West is learning the emperor has no clothes when it comes to the Russian military (in reality it's more like the emperor's clothes aren't made of the finest material as we'd thought). I'm with you though, I really don't want to test out their nuclear capabilities.