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I think it makes more sense to break this question down into a few specific ones: 1. How likely is it that Putin will want to use nuclear weapons? - I don't t

by V__ 5y ago

I think it makes more sense to break this question down into a few specific ones: 1. How likely is it that Putin will want to use nuclear weapons? - I don't think he is that mad, but who knows? If the pressure inside Russia starts to rise, protests expand and a win in Ukraine starts to get more and more unlikely.. Cornered animals start to lash out. If he thinks it's his last chance to save himself or his legacy, he may go that far. Do I think he would attack a NATO country? No. But maybe he would attack Ukraine and hope that would somehow save him. 2. How likely is it, that his orders will be followed? - He seems to have surrounded himself with yes-man, so I don't think some higher up would stop him. But just like with Stanislav Petrov it's often people down the line who, when faced with the actual consequences of their actions, choose to do the right thing. 3. How likely is it, that they will hit/explode? - I have no sources, and it's just a personal feeling: I think the U.S. and probably even China have technologies to shoot down any Russian nuclear missile attacks. Looking at some UFO videos, which have popped up, and my belief that those aren't alien but advanced military aircraft, I think this would be a good bet to make. Whether they would use it to save Ukraine and show their (technological) hand is another question. But I would say the chance of a Russian nuclear missile hitting a NATO country and exploding is pretty low. 4. How likely is it, that it will trigger a response? - If it explodes in Ukraine, who knows. The war in Ukraine would be over at that point, I think it would more likely trigger an (extreme) non-nuclear response, which would result in Russia being made unable to further attack and Putin and his inner-circle being obliterated. If they attack a NATO country, all bets are off.

unfocussed_mike 5y ago
> 1. How likely is it that Putin will want to use nuclear weapons? Fiona Hill -- absolutely the smartest person in the room on this topic in a generation -- thinks he absolutely would: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-... > But just like with Stanislav Petrov it's often people down the line who, when faced with the actual consequences of their actions, choose to do the right thing. Reassuringly it does seem to be something of a Stanislav Petrov war, doesn't it. Russian soldiers pretty routinely abandoning their vehicles, seemingly even sabotaging them. But this doesn't apply to Putin. It's important to understand that he does not have a functioning conscience, and he's very comfortable with cruelty.
- V__ 5y ago
  Fascinating article, thank you. What it also says, is that he may be emotional, but he isn't a madman. So wouldn't the question then be: How likely does Putin think a nuke on Ukraine would trigger a NATO response. Since he must know, a nuclear exchange with NATO would mark his end. What do you think?
  - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
    He's a psychopath. When he is cornered he will do whatever works for him. Because that is all he can do. The thing that might temper this is, I think, is that he does have children. Psychopaths aren't capable of true emotional love, but they do look after their things. It is said (albeit largely in tabloids) that the outcome he fears the most is dying like Gaddafi. He was quite preoccupied by Gaddafi's death at the time: https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-gaddafi-putin-idUSR4E7K701B20111026 https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-gaddafi-putin-idUSR4E7... Maybe he'll commit suicide. Psychopaths do commit suicide. Harold Shipman did, Fred West did, Jeffrey Epstein did (sorry everyone; suicide is the logical explanation). But they also commit murder-suicide. This is a guy who has had people pushed out of windows, poisoned, a guy who almost certainly ordered the faking of apartment block bombings as a pretext to invade Chechnya. He's comfortable with cruelty; he has no conscience. I think it is interesting he is becoming more emotional. He is very narcissistic, but he's always had control over it, appearing showy but gentlemanly and urbane. Perhaps he is losing that control. Personally I think it's going to be bad. As soon as he believes there is no chance he'll avoid a traitor's death. I don't know how bad, but I still think there's a good chance he will find a tactical way to demonstrate his willingness to use nuclear weapons.
mysecretaccount 5y ago
Unfortunately I think the UAPs cited by the Pentagon are just as likely to be of Chinese or Russian origin.

by V__ 5y ago

unfocussed_mike 5y ago

> 1. How likely is it that Putin will want to use nuclear weapons? Fiona Hill -- absolutely the smartest person in the room on this topic in a generation -- thinks he absolutely would: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-... > But just like with Stanislav Petrov it's often people down the line who, when faced with the actual consequences of their actions, choose to do the right thing. Reassuringly it does seem to be something of a Stanislav Petrov war, doesn't it. Russian soldiers pretty routinely abandoning their vehicles, seemingly even sabotaging them. But this doesn't apply to Putin. It's important to understand that he does not have a functioning conscience, and he's very comfortable with cruelty.

V__ 5y ago
Fascinating article, thank you. What it also says, is that he may be emotional, but he isn't a madman. So wouldn't the question then be: How likely does Putin think a nuke on Ukraine would trigger a NATO response. Since he must know, a nuclear exchange with NATO would mark his end. What do you think?
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  He's a psychopath. When he is cornered he will do whatever works for him. Because that is all he can do. The thing that might temper this is, I think, is that he does have children. Psychopaths aren't capable of true emotional love, but they do look after their things. It is said (albeit largely in tabloids) that the outcome he fears the most is dying like Gaddafi. He was quite preoccupied by Gaddafi's death at the time: https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-gaddafi-putin-idUSR4E7K701B20111026 https://www.reuters.com/article/libya-gaddafi-putin-idUSR4E7... Maybe he'll commit suicide. Psychopaths do commit suicide. Harold Shipman did, Fred West did, Jeffrey Epstein did (sorry everyone; suicide is the logical explanation). But they also commit murder-suicide. This is a guy who has had people pushed out of windows, poisoned, a guy who almost certainly ordered the faking of apartment block bombings as a pretext to invade Chechnya. He's comfortable with cruelty; he has no conscience. I think it is interesting he is becoming more emotional. He is very narcissistic, but he's always had control over it, appearing showy but gentlemanly and urbane. Perhaps he is losing that control. Personally I think it's going to be bad. As soon as he believes there is no chance he'll avoid a traitor's death. I don't know how bad, but I still think there's a good chance he will find a tactical way to demonstrate his willingness to use nuclear weapons.

mysecretaccount 5y ago

Unfortunately I think the UAPs cited by the Pentagon are just as likely to be of Chinese or Russian origin.