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> I speculate that Russian airforce weaponry is not generally high-precision, and the order to avoid targeting civilians implies restraint on use of indiscrimin
by tablespoon 5y ago
> I speculate that Russian airforce weaponry is not generally high-precision, and the order to avoid targeting civilians implies restraint on use of indiscriminate bombing. Again, we've seen counterexamples which could be explained by all of the above reasons, plus the possibility of friendly fire from failed Ukrainian air defences.
That doesn't explain this, though:
> Vastly outmatched by Russia's military, in terms of raw numbers and firepower, Ukraine's own air force is still flying and its air defenses are still deemed to be viable - a fact that is baffling military experts.
> After the opening salvos of the war on Feb. 24, analysts expected the Russian military to try to immediately destroy Ukraine's air force and air defenses.
> That would have been "the logical and widely anticipated next step, as seen in almost every military conflict since 1938," wrote the RUSI think-tank in London, in an article called "The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force."
> Instead, Ukrainian air force fighter jets are still carrying out low-level, defensive counter-air and ground-attack sorties. Russia is still flying through contested airspace.
...
> Did they really launch this invasion on the assumption that the people of Ukraine would just roll over and accept foreign rule?
It seems like it. I've seen videos of captured Russians where they claimed they were lied to and told the Ukrainians would welcome them. IIRC, their invasion of Crimea wasn't met with much resistance, and maybe they assumed it would be the same this time.
Also, if they'd been faster they might have had more success. I've seen reports that the Russian military has been acting in risk-averse ways that gave the Ukrainians time to organize more effective resistance.
- jihadjihad 5y agoI agree, and it might be the case that since they lost any element of surprise due to their moves being telegraphed by Western intelligence, it greatly undermined any speed they were hoping to make use of.
- tablespoon 5y ago> I agree, and it might be the case that since they lost any element of surprise due to their moves being telegraphed by Western intelligence, it greatly undermined any speed they were hoping to make use of. It's unclear to me how much of that time Ukraine used to prepare. If they did, they didn't telegraph it. What I read was the Russian amphibious landing in the south was done 30-40 miles away from the target city (or kilometers, can't remember the unit). Apparently they wanted the space to get organized. However that meant the city had extra time to prepare after the actual invasion started.
- anothernewdude 5y agoThey were arming themselves with missiles and the Turkish drones during that time.
- scrubs 5y agoPerhaps Russia knowing it's military strategy would be on full display for analysis decided to accept loss of men and/or slower gains for not giving away how its planes would perform?
- symlinkk 5y agoThis is my theory (disclaimer: I have no clue what I’m talking about). They don’t want to show all their cards to the West.
- sharikous 5y agoI thought like you but day by day I am more convinced that their cards are visible and insufficient to secure a victory anyway. Everything from land forces, to the navy, to the air force, to the intelligence, to the propaganda unit is performing poorly. And the West has exhibited superior intelligence and PR by all means. The Ukrainian army is much better trained and organized than expected (probably some Western help in their training, or just the psychological hardening caused by the conflict from 2014), and the population is 100% hostile to the invasion.
- slim 5y agobombing cities in the twitter era creates an undelible trail of images of dead civilian infants that make you lose the war. russia simply decided to give Ukraine gov. the exclusivity of bombing civilians. Photos are already out there despite the massive international PR/PSYOP campain. Search for dombass
- whimsicalism 5y agoNot true of Syria.
- slim 5y agoyou're right. They did not lose the war because they were facing a lousy enemy