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Here's my fear, which I really really hope someone can allay. I just don't see an "off ramp" for Putin right now. The cost he's incurred is HUGE and there's r

Here's my fear, which I really really hope someone can allay. I just don't see an "off ramp" for Putin right now. The cost he's incurred is HUGE and there's really no way out of this for him. He's already threatened a nuclear response to any country that opposes his attempt, in so many words. I'm afraid he will take advantage of one of his new hyper-glide entry nukes. My fear is not that he will launch ALL nukes, just one, to make a point, and to avoid the consequences of MAD (since target of this attack, also fearing MAD, would not want to respond in kind. They would prefer to keep the losses at one city and avoid MAD). So that's my fear. One strike, to a major city, with a first-of-its kind hyper glide entry vehicle to which no country has a deterrent. The rationale (if you can call it that) is that no country would want to continue with sanctions against Russia after that point, for fear of the same happening to them. Disclaimer, I live in the heart of Seattle, so I must admit this has been keeping me up at night.

maratc 5y ago
The real fear for you should be the one where Putin’s regime is toppled, and Russia disintegrates into a series of mini states, all of them with nuclear capabilities.
- wilkommen 5y ago
  That's a good point. I hope that Russia doesn't fall into civil war and instead just gets a new government and new leader.
- Mezzie 5y ago
  And this scenario on steroids when America finally disintegrates, though that may or may not happen in our lifetimes. America has over twice as many people, our population is more geographically dispersed, and we're all being pushed to hate each other. I think the "California nukes Texas in 2093" (or vice versa) version of nuclear armageddon is way more plausible than the "Putin goes insane and nukes Ukraine/other targets 2022" version of nuclear armageddon.
- HstryrsrBttn 5y ago
908B64B197 5y ago
> The rationale (if you can call it that) is that no country would want to continue with sanctions against Russia after that point, for fear of the same happening to them. I see the complete opposite. Broad sanctions to Russia (think complete embargo like Cuba) and any country not enforcing said embargo. Immediate seizure of any Russian or Russian-aligned assets owned in the west by anyone with allegiance to such. Passports becoming instantly worthless.
thesuitonym 5y ago
Why worry about it? It either won't happen, in which case you worried for nothing, or it will, and it won't be your problem anymore.
- hugs 5y ago
  The worry maybe comes from somehow surviving the initial blast. For example, it's possible that no one is going to send nuclear bombs to McMurdo Station in Antarctica *. They'd likely survive the initial waves of attacks, but would be utterly cut off from the rest of the world for the rest of their lives. Or maybe they won't be cut off? Hard to know! What would you do if you were there in that situation? How long would you last? Basically, the second worst thing that could happen in nuclear war is *not* dying in the initial blast. It makes for an interesting discussion, which can lead some to worry depending on how the discussion ends. * Substitute Antarctica for any rural site that isn't within 100 miles of a ground zero.*
BatmansMom 5y ago
Do you think if Russia launches one single nuke onto US land that the government would not issue a retaliatory strike of equal or greater impact? I think its more than likely the US would launch many nukes in response, and the probability of that is at least great enough that Russia wouldn't try it.
jaywalk 5y ago
The lack of an "off ramp" for Putin is absolutely my biggest fear as well. Russia can't survive long-term with the sanctions, so he has to put a stop to them. The only encouraging thing I could say is that if he follows your plan of one strike, I can't imagine it would be to the US. Even if we didn't go MAD in response, we would immediately be at war with Russia until one of us is destroyed.

maratc 5y ago

The real fear for you should be the one where Putin’s regime is toppled, and Russia disintegrates into a series of mini states, all of them with nuclear capabilities.

wilkommen 5y ago
That's a good point. I hope that Russia doesn't fall into civil war and instead just gets a new government and new leader.
Mezzie 5y ago
And this scenario on steroids when America finally disintegrates, though that may or may not happen in our lifetimes. America has over twice as many people, our population is more geographically dispersed, and we're all being pushed to hate each other. I think the "California nukes Texas in 2093" (or vice versa) version of nuclear armageddon is way more plausible than the "Putin goes insane and nukes Ukraine/other targets 2022" version of nuclear armageddon.
HstryrsrBttn 5y ago

908B64B197 5y ago

> The rationale (if you can call it that) is that no country would want to continue with sanctions against Russia after that point, for fear of the same happening to them. I see the complete opposite. Broad sanctions to Russia (think complete embargo like Cuba) and any country not enforcing said embargo. Immediate seizure of any Russian or Russian-aligned assets owned in the west by anyone with allegiance to such. Passports becoming instantly worthless.

thesuitonym 5y ago

Why worry about it? It either won't happen, in which case you worried for nothing, or it will, and it won't be your problem anymore.

hugs 5y ago
The worry maybe comes from somehow surviving the initial blast. For example, it's possible that no one is going to send nuclear bombs to McMurdo Station in Antarctica *. They'd likely survive the initial waves of attacks, but would be utterly cut off from the rest of the world for the rest of their lives. Or maybe they won't be cut off? Hard to know! What would you do if you were there in that situation? How long would you last? Basically, the second worst thing that could happen in nuclear war is *not* dying in the initial blast. It makes for an interesting discussion, which can lead some to worry depending on how the discussion ends. * Substitute Antarctica for any rural site that isn't within 100 miles of a ground zero.*

BatmansMom 5y ago

Do you think if Russia launches one single nuke onto US land that the government would not issue a retaliatory strike of equal or greater impact? I think its more than likely the US would launch many nukes in response, and the probability of that is at least great enough that Russia wouldn't try it.

jaywalk 5y ago

The lack of an "off ramp" for Putin is absolutely my biggest fear as well. Russia can't survive long-term with the sanctions, so he has to put a stop to them. The only encouraging thing I could say is that if he follows your plan of one strike, I can't imagine it would be to the US. Even if we didn't go MAD in response, we would immediately be at war with Russia until one of us is destroyed.