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Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for Ukraine as they seem.

tedivm 5y ago
They hit the fuel train that was supplying the convoy with a drone strike and released the footage. The convoy has been stalled for days now, both due to fighting and due to supply chain issues (such as having their supply train blow up).
- bombcar 5y ago
  Isn't the supply train in the south in Crimea and the convoy in the north near Kiev?
  - tokai 5y ago
    Irrelevant on the question of Russian air superiority over Ukraine. The Ukrainian air force is clearly still operating.
  - ProjectArcturis 5y ago
    There would be separate supply lines for each thrust.
- astrange 5y ago
  Claiming there's a "the" convoy and Ukraine has either not ever struck it, or has only struck it once, seems to assume a satellite picture you saw from 2 days ago is the only thing that's happening in the country. A lot has gone down since then they're not going to tell you about.
ceejayoz 5y ago
> If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Not necessarily. That's likely to be a target-rich, but well-defended area. As long as it's not moving - especially given rumors of fuel troubles - there may be better things for the Ukranian air force to tackle, like helicopters moving troops around.
- UltraViolence 5y ago
  No, this convoy would be an obvious strafing target. I'm disappointed that the Ukrainians didn't even attempt it. Or we haven't heard about it.
  - stouset 5y ago
    Strafing implies—again—flying low over a potentially heavily-defended target. If even a handful of ground troops in that convoy are carrying MANPADs it would be suicide, and that's to say nothing of self-propelled anti-aircraft guns that are almost certainly accompanying the convoy. Again, there are probably far more urgent targets for the Ukrainian Air Force than a convoy that hasn't moved in days.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > No, this convoy would be an obvious strafing target. I'm disappointed that the Ukrainians didn't even attempt it. Or we haven't heard about it. I wouldn't be surprised if the convoy had the equivalent of a 1000 US Stinger AA missiles or more. It's not with strafing if there's too high a chance the jet would get shot down. As a layman, I'm guessing the only things worth the risk might be some operation that could potentially trap the convoy (e.g. between two knocked-out bridges).
  - xeromal 5y ago
    We don't know the whole story, but Russia could have air superiority over the convoy.
NicoJuicy 5y ago
Driving bumper to bumper is literally to stay within their air defense missles moving with it. It's a sign of weakness, not strength.
micromacrofoot 5y ago
Ukraine really doesn't want war, the odds are stacked against them and without significant outside ground troops they'll be devastated even if Russia is as incompetent as they currently appear. Killing aggressors is often used as an excuse for the aggressors to be more aggressive and Russia's army is large enough to replace that convoy a few times over without much of a sweat. Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It's also a morale killer; a lot of Russians have Ukrainian relatives. A lot of the captured combatants are very young and seem confused about why they're there (yes, could just be propaganda). Ukraine just wants them to go home. The Ukrainian people don't really have a conflict with the Russian people.
- HideousKojima 5y ago
  >Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely internal matter for the Ukrainians to deal with however they see fit, and provides zero justification for Russia's invasion. But by lying and claiming it's a lie you're going to make anyone who looks into the truth behind the matter more likely to become sympathetic to the Russian version of events.
  - consp 5y ago
    > It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": It would be exactly the same as calling all Americans Nazi's during the reign of Trump. There is no foundation in fact all American's are but there are small groups he as the President supported who were Nazi's. This is a plain lie to serve their propaganda.
    - HideousKojima 5y ago
      >It would be exactly the same as calling all Americans Nazi's during the reign of Trump. Were any far-right groups formally integrated into the US military, federal law enforcement, or anything else like that during Trump's presidency? That's the difference here, the Azov battalion was a private militia that was made an actual part of the Ukrainian military.
whimsicalism 5y ago
I doubt the Ukrainians are still flying much.
newaccount2021 5y ago
rr808 5y ago
That was my thought too. They have the luxury if just sitting there waiting safely for the right time while the capital self implodes. Western press talks a lot about it, meanwhile in the South the war is going badly.
- ProjectArcturis 5y ago
  Sources? I'm trying to diversify media and would love anything that doesn't filter through a pro- or anti-Russia lens. So far Al Jazeera is the best I've found.
  - rurp 5y ago
    I'll second Al Jazeera. I've been looking at various news sources trying to find unbiased up to date info and they are the best I've found so far. The daily live blogs are great when I have the time to follow them.
  - rr808 5y ago
    https://t.me/s/MedvedevVesti https://t.me/s/MedvedevVesti https://t.me/s/epoddubny https://t.me/s/epoddubny https://t.me/s/sashakots https://t.me/s/sashakots have propaganda and opinion but some worth reading. You'll have to get browser to auto translate.
  - rr808 5y ago
    https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 has history too
- astrange 5y ago
  Well it's not going badly, it's expected that Russia would win because of how much bigger they are. It's more that it's going badly for Russia in the north and expectedly in the south. Of course, being able to capture land doesn't mean they can occupy it.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
caeril 5y ago
If there's one thing Russia is very good at, it's surface to air defense. They've screwed so much of this operation thus far, but I bet you that good chunks of that column consist of Tunguskas and Tors, and the Ukrainians know it.
- drran 5y ago
  I see no Tunguska in remains of convoy: https://www.facebook.com/serega.misura/posts/7021556277914753 https://www.facebook.com/serega.misura/posts/702155627791475... .
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-docum... Maybe not, but there are definitely those in service, one damaged and abandoned, one disabled and one captured.
atlantas 5y ago
Right, I'd love to hear a good explanation for why they're not attacking a 40-mile long convoy on a road. At least bomb the front of the convoy, wtf. That Russia sent in such a rich sitting duck target and it's not being attacked suggests they have air superiority and we're getting bad information.
- dpark 5y ago
  I can’t decide if the people here in the comments spend too much time watching action movies or too little. Obviously the first thing that pops to mind when you hear “air superiority” and “40 mile convoy of enemy tanks” is “bomb that convoy to dust”. The second thing that should pop is “ambush”. Losing 5 aircraft to surface to air missiles to take out 5 tanks would be a poor tradeoff. Doubtless bombing the convoy is something Ukraine has considered. Also doubtless they are aware that the convoy isn’t guaranteed to be a parade of sitting ducks.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  'why don't they' ... really is the assumption that Ukrainian defense is clueless? I would say they are doing a pretty good job so far.
  - atlantas 5y ago
    No, the assumption is that they are outgunned.
- chasd00 5y ago
  i'm no military tactician but if it's not getting closer and not able to hit you then it's not a threat. they probably have bigger problems than a stalled convoy.
- koonsolo 5y ago
  There is something weird going on with that convoy. It's not moving forward for some reason (claims of fuel shortages) Maybe they didn't bomb the convoy, but just the supply, like they did before. Once those soldiers go searching for food, the Ukrainians can take some extra tanks for their army ;).
jprd 5y ago
"Earlier today, the enemy occupying force in Ukraine mercilessly attacked our peacekeeping force as it peacefully advanced towards Kyiv with humanitarian aid. President Putin has authorized the use of overwhelming force to evict the occupiers and avenge our fallen servicemen. President-in-Exile <insert expendable criminal> leads the official people's government from Belarus and blah...blah..." There is nothing at all that has stopped the military from attacking such an obvious target, but it would hurt Ukraine's plea as a victim seeking peace from the RUS citizens and provide truthiness to Putin's internal propaganda. Better to let this encirclement occur, the thaw hits, RUS armor stuck with harrassed supply lines and the hell of urban combat against a determined populace. Meanwhile, your western flank is feeding advanced weaponry into the remaining UKR units and your economy has imploded. Take all the corruption, assumptions RUS had, etc. and it all still looks like a scenario from some HS history class to help teach about Caesar or Stalingrad.

tedivm 5y ago

They hit the fuel train that was supplying the convoy with a drone strike and released the footage. The convoy has been stalled for days now, both due to fighting and due to supply chain issues (such as having their supply train blow up).

bombcar 5y ago
Isn't the supply train in the south in Crimea and the convoy in the north near Kiev?
- tokai 5y ago
  Irrelevant on the question of Russian air superiority over Ukraine. The Ukrainian air force is clearly still operating.
- ProjectArcturis 5y ago
  There would be separate supply lines for each thrust.
astrange 5y ago
Claiming there's a "the" convoy and Ukraine has either not ever struck it, or has only struck it once, seems to assume a satellite picture you saw from 2 days ago is the only thing that's happening in the country. A lot has gone down since then they're not going to tell you about.

ceejayoz 5y ago

> If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Not necessarily. That's likely to be a target-rich, but well-defended area. As long as it's not moving - especially given rumors of fuel troubles - there may be better things for the Ukranian air force to tackle, like helicopters moving troops around.

UltraViolence 5y ago
No, this convoy would be an obvious strafing target. I'm disappointed that the Ukrainians didn't even attempt it. Or we haven't heard about it.
- stouset 5y ago
  Strafing implies—again—flying low over a potentially heavily-defended target. If even a handful of ground troops in that convoy are carrying MANPADs it would be suicide, and that's to say nothing of self-propelled anti-aircraft guns that are almost certainly accompanying the convoy. Again, there are probably far more urgent targets for the Ukrainian Air Force than a convoy that hasn't moved in days.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > No, this convoy would be an obvious strafing target. I'm disappointed that the Ukrainians didn't even attempt it. Or we haven't heard about it. I wouldn't be surprised if the convoy had the equivalent of a 1000 US Stinger AA missiles or more. It's not with strafing if there's too high a chance the jet would get shot down. As a layman, I'm guessing the only things worth the risk might be some operation that could potentially trap the convoy (e.g. between two knocked-out bridges).
- xeromal 5y ago
  We don't know the whole story, but Russia could have air superiority over the convoy.

NicoJuicy 5y ago

Driving bumper to bumper is literally to stay within their air defense missles moving with it. It's a sign of weakness, not strength.

micromacrofoot 5y ago

Ukraine really doesn't want war, the odds are stacked against them and without significant outside ground troops they'll be devastated even if Russia is as incompetent as they currently appear. Killing aggressors is often used as an excuse for the aggressors to be more aggressive and Russia's army is large enough to replace that convoy a few times over without much of a sweat. Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It's also a morale killer; a lot of Russians have Ukrainian relatives. A lot of the captured combatants are very young and seem confused about why they're there (yes, could just be propaganda). Ukraine just wants them to go home. The Ukrainian people don't really have a conflict with the Russian people.

HideousKojima 5y ago
>Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely internal matter for the Ukrainians to deal with however they see fit, and provides zero justification for Russia's invasion. But by lying and claiming it's a lie you're going to make anyone who looks into the truth behind the matter more likely to become sympathetic to the Russian version of events.
- consp 5y ago
  > It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": It would be exactly the same as calling all Americans Nazi's during the reign of Trump. There is no foundation in fact all American's are but there are small groups he as the President supported who were Nazi's. This is a plain lie to serve their propaganda.
  - HideousKojima 5y ago
    >It would be exactly the same as calling all Americans Nazi's during the reign of Trump. Were any far-right groups formally integrated into the US military, federal law enforcement, or anything else like that during Trump's presidency? That's the difference here, the Azov battalion was a private militia that was made an actual part of the Ukrainian military.

whimsicalism 5y ago

I doubt the Ukrainians are still flying much.

newaccount2021 5y ago

rr808 5y ago

That was my thought too. They have the luxury if just sitting there waiting safely for the right time while the capital self implodes. Western press talks a lot about it, meanwhile in the South the war is going badly.

ProjectArcturis 5y ago
Sources? I'm trying to diversify media and would love anything that doesn't filter through a pro- or anti-Russia lens. So far Al Jazeera is the best I've found.
- rurp 5y ago
  I'll second Al Jazeera. I've been looking at various news sources trying to find unbiased up to date info and they are the best I've found so far. The daily live blogs are great when I have the time to follow them.
- rr808 5y ago
  https://t.me/s/MedvedevVesti https://t.me/s/MedvedevVesti https://t.me/s/epoddubny https://t.me/s/epoddubny https://t.me/s/sashakots https://t.me/s/sashakots have propaganda and opinion but some worth reading. You'll have to get browser to auto translate.
- rr808 5y ago
  https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592 has history too
astrange 5y ago
Well it's not going badly, it's expected that Russia would win because of how much bigger they are. It's more that it's going badly for Russia in the north and expectedly in the south. Of course, being able to capture land doesn't mean they can occupy it.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

caeril 5y ago

If there's one thing Russia is very good at, it's surface to air defense. They've screwed so much of this operation thus far, but I bet you that good chunks of that column consist of Tunguskas and Tors, and the Ukrainians know it.

drran 5y ago
I see no Tunguska in remains of convoy: https://www.facebook.com/serega.misura/posts/7021556277914753 https://www.facebook.com/serega.misura/posts/702155627791475... .
- jacquesm 5y ago
  https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-docum... Maybe not, but there are definitely those in service, one damaged and abandoned, one disabled and one captured.

atlantas 5y ago

Right, I'd love to hear a good explanation for why they're not attacking a 40-mile long convoy on a road. At least bomb the front of the convoy, wtf. That Russia sent in such a rich sitting duck target and it's not being attacked suggests they have air superiority and we're getting bad information.

dpark 5y ago
I can’t decide if the people here in the comments spend too much time watching action movies or too little. Obviously the first thing that pops to mind when you hear “air superiority” and “40 mile convoy of enemy tanks” is “bomb that convoy to dust”. The second thing that should pop is “ambush”. Losing 5 aircraft to surface to air missiles to take out 5 tanks would be a poor tradeoff. Doubtless bombing the convoy is something Ukraine has considered. Also doubtless they are aware that the convoy isn’t guaranteed to be a parade of sitting ducks.
jacquesm 5y ago
'why don't they' ... really is the assumption that Ukrainian defense is clueless? I would say they are doing a pretty good job so far.
- atlantas 5y ago
  No, the assumption is that they are outgunned.
chasd00 5y ago
i'm no military tactician but if it's not getting closer and not able to hit you then it's not a threat. they probably have bigger problems than a stalled convoy.
koonsolo 5y ago
There is something weird going on with that convoy. It's not moving forward for some reason (claims of fuel shortages) Maybe they didn't bomb the convoy, but just the supply, like they did before. Once those soldiers go searching for food, the Ukrainians can take some extra tanks for their army ;).

jprd 5y ago

"Earlier today, the enemy occupying force in Ukraine mercilessly attacked our peacekeeping force as it peacefully advanced towards Kyiv with humanitarian aid. President Putin has authorized the use of overwhelming force to evict the occupiers and avenge our fallen servicemen. President-in-Exile <insert expendable criminal> leads the official people's government from Belarus and blah...blah..." There is nothing at all that has stopped the military from attacking such an obvious target, but it would hurt Ukraine's plea as a victim seeking peace from the RUS citizens and provide truthiness to Putin's internal propaganda. Better to let this encirclement occur, the thaw hits, RUS armor stuck with harrassed supply lines and the hell of urban combat against a determined populace. Meanwhile, your western flank is feeding advanced weaponry into the remaining UKR units and your economy has imploded. Take all the corruption, assumptions RUS had, etc. and it all still looks like a scenario from some HS history class to help teach about Caesar or Stalingrad.