The "mud" stood out to me as well, since it frames the timeline as having short term urgency. But I wonder if it cuts both ways. For example, if Putin occupies

The "mud" stood out to me as well, since it frames the timeline as having short term urgency. But I wonder if it cuts both ways. For example, if Putin occupies and holds Donbas and Odessa, what's the likelihood of Ukrainian forces mounting a counter attack and reclaiming said territory? This puts the onus of invasion onto the Ukrainians, which are more configured for resistance in the first place. The result could be another "soft annex" similar to Crimea.