5 ms·

Hopefully with Russian citizens (peacefully) ousting Putin.

tomp 5y ago
What probably do you assign to that? I assign non-trivial probability to “ousting” but practically 0% chance of “peacefully” - more like “go out with a bang”.
- watwut 5y ago
  Given that their only source of info is state media, I don't think it is realistic to expect uprising
  - Exmoor 5y ago
    Utter speculation on my part, but I see this as both a weakness and a strength for Putin. On one hand, as long as the government and whoever controls what goes out on state media are on his side it helps Putin. If, however, that control breaks down and the people in those positions lose confidence in Putin than the leverage reverses and they can easily use their media in the opposite direction.
  - def_true_false 5y ago
    Why do you think their only source of info is state media? Do you think Russians don't have internet, social networks, group chats?
    - philovivero 5y ago
      In the USA, there is nothing stopping you from going to learn all the pro-Trump, anti-vax, anti-mask propaganda you want, yet millions of people do not. What makes you think it's any easier for someone to leave their filter bubble in Russia, where the consequences aren't just losing your job and social ingroup, but also being kidnapped, tortured, and being found dead in a ditch five years from now?
    - watwut 5y ago
      All in all, on average, primary source of info. Afaik, a lot of works goes into controlling which parts of internet are well accessible and which are not. The social networks and group chats are amplifier of what you see elsewhere. They don't bring new information from outside into debate. They are also reflection of what you consider appropriate or safe to share. And with new criminalization of "disinformation about war", it will be less. And right now, as far as Russian official version is, afaik, Ukranians are nazi child killers and Russia is there to denazify and protect regions of it. Moreover, ousting Putin requires more then unhappy disagreeing populace. It requires either super weak regime or internal coup of powerful players. Regime is not weak currently.
      - def_true_false 5y ago
        People still remember Chechnya and Afghanistan, so I think they expect to have to use unofficial sources for certain kinds of information, like getting information about their dead or missing relatives. I guess we'll see what happens when the coffins start coming back. Putin's regime wouldn't be the first to fall over a failed war.
  - vegai_ 5y ago
    Did they have truthful media in 1917?
    - watwut 5y ago
      Like, who exactly? If you mean Russia, they had years of internal violence behind them. They had well established revolutionary movements and terror groups acting inside on top of it even before WWI. And the regime was weak and forced to do concessions already in run up to WWI and even weaker by end of it. They were doing reforms, too little too late, but they were doing them because internal pressure was strong for years. That revolution did not came out of nowhere. Plus, the population was literally hungry and desperate to large extend. And plus, it was followed by major civil war of like 5 sides competing for power.
  - awb 5y ago
    Some must see planes turning around, body bags coming home, ships not leaving port, the stock market staying closed for three days straight, friends withdrawing cash, family at sanctioned companies afraid of losing their jobs, etc. and know that something is up. I don’t think everyone is brainwashed by state media, some just ignore it or tolerate it to stay out of trouble. I don’t think a civil uprising is likely though due to Russia’s police, military, legal system and covert ops that are willing to dramatically intimidate or eliminate political threats. Any uprising is going to come from generals sick of bombing civilians or oligarchs sick of losing money IMO.
tshaddox 5y ago
How would they do that peacefully? Surely whether or not it would be peaceful would be up to Putin.
- bufferoverflow 5y ago
  Or not peacefully. Who cares, he is an insane dictator who caused thousands of deaths.
  - tshaddox 5y ago
    pssssst nuclear weapons
FpUser 5y ago
Dreamland. Putin is a deranged murderer and he has so far good support (or they are just scared shitless) in duma and enforcement. Right now they're putting protesters in jail because there are relatively few. If protesters follow former US ambassador's Michael McFaul's advise (I think dumb one) and show up in hundreds of thousands the shooting will start and it might provoke him to press that red button. The only hope I really have that the close circle and the enforcement part would render Putin out of the picture. But for that they have to have a way out. As it stands now they're all booked for ICC and have no reason to do anything like that.
- HideousKojima 5y ago
  Putin is a corrupt murderer but I've seen very little to suggest that he's deranged or otherwise insane. And depending on how firm the west is about sticking to sanctions (i.e. will Europe quietly roll them back after gas prices spike?) his choice to invade Ukraine may even be a smart move for him from a geopolitical perspective.
  - cmurf 5y ago
    The west has area areas when it comes to the U.N. Charter, but Putin has gone way over the line to exactly why the U.N. founded to prevent. The west will stick to the multilateral system until nukes drop, and will sooner close the Russian oil and gas spigot entirely than abandon it. Cutting off 50% of the flow by my reading translates into around $150 per barrel oil which is in the realm of $7/gallon gas at the pump. Europeans pay on average $7-8/gallon for a long time. Cutting it off entirely? Someone else will have a better idea if that could be in the range of $10/gallon or $20. Of course it will cause problems. Folks might decide in a couple years they like cheap gas more, and then end up in another world war with even higher prices anyway just because they have no imagination about what a completely stupid move this was from a geopolitical perspective.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    Europe isn't going to roll back anything, they can move to US, Mexico, Venezuela, Middle East gas sources although it will be painful. They are not going to enrich the guy who is trying to reconquer Europe. Germany will start spending a bunch more on their military now as well as Russia is a traditional enemy.
goto11 5y ago
The best case is if the current inner circle "convince" him to step down. A new regime could come to some compromise and blame the fiasco on Putin drinking too much vodka. Popular uprisings against Putin would be a bloodbath and could turn into a civil war.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Everyone knows Putin is a teetotaler.
spaetzleesser 5y ago
I am not so sure if the average Russian citizen thinks Putin is that bad. From the outside it looks like life has massively improved during Putin’s reign. We shouldn’t forget how things were in Russia before Putin. Maybe the Ukrainian situation is the turning point. If the sanctions cause pain in Russia people’s view of Putin may change.
astkaasa 5y ago
There's an opinion that Russian conservative people like Strelkov[0] are more radical than Putin. And they feel that Putin should done these things at 2014, for 2022 it's already a little bit late. If Putin cannot achieve his goal, these neo-imperialist people will overthrow him and continue this war. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

tomp 5y ago

What probably do you assign to that? I assign non-trivial probability to “ousting” but practically 0% chance of “peacefully” - more like “go out with a bang”.

watwut 5y ago
Given that their only source of info is state media, I don't think it is realistic to expect uprising
- Exmoor 5y ago
  Utter speculation on my part, but I see this as both a weakness and a strength for Putin. On one hand, as long as the government and whoever controls what goes out on state media are on his side it helps Putin. If, however, that control breaks down and the people in those positions lose confidence in Putin than the leverage reverses and they can easily use their media in the opposite direction.
- def_true_false 5y ago
  Why do you think their only source of info is state media? Do you think Russians don't have internet, social networks, group chats?
  - philovivero 5y ago
    In the USA, there is nothing stopping you from going to learn all the pro-Trump, anti-vax, anti-mask propaganda you want, yet millions of people do not. What makes you think it's any easier for someone to leave their filter bubble in Russia, where the consequences aren't just losing your job and social ingroup, but also being kidnapped, tortured, and being found dead in a ditch five years from now?
  - watwut 5y ago
    All in all, on average, primary source of info. Afaik, a lot of works goes into controlling which parts of internet are well accessible and which are not. The social networks and group chats are amplifier of what you see elsewhere. They don't bring new information from outside into debate. They are also reflection of what you consider appropriate or safe to share. And with new criminalization of "disinformation about war", it will be less. And right now, as far as Russian official version is, afaik, Ukranians are nazi child killers and Russia is there to denazify and protect regions of it. Moreover, ousting Putin requires more then unhappy disagreeing populace. It requires either super weak regime or internal coup of powerful players. Regime is not weak currently.
    - def_true_false 5y ago
      People still remember Chechnya and Afghanistan, so I think they expect to have to use unofficial sources for certain kinds of information, like getting information about their dead or missing relatives. I guess we'll see what happens when the coffins start coming back. Putin's regime wouldn't be the first to fall over a failed war.
- vegai_ 5y ago
  Did they have truthful media in 1917?
  - watwut 5y ago
    Like, who exactly? If you mean Russia, they had years of internal violence behind them. They had well established revolutionary movements and terror groups acting inside on top of it even before WWI. And the regime was weak and forced to do concessions already in run up to WWI and even weaker by end of it. They were doing reforms, too little too late, but they were doing them because internal pressure was strong for years. That revolution did not came out of nowhere. Plus, the population was literally hungry and desperate to large extend. And plus, it was followed by major civil war of like 5 sides competing for power.
- awb 5y ago
  Some must see planes turning around, body bags coming home, ships not leaving port, the stock market staying closed for three days straight, friends withdrawing cash, family at sanctioned companies afraid of losing their jobs, etc. and know that something is up. I don’t think everyone is brainwashed by state media, some just ignore it or tolerate it to stay out of trouble. I don’t think a civil uprising is likely though due to Russia’s police, military, legal system and covert ops that are willing to dramatically intimidate or eliminate political threats. Any uprising is going to come from generals sick of bombing civilians or oligarchs sick of losing money IMO.

tshaddox 5y ago

How would they do that peacefully? Surely whether or not it would be peaceful would be up to Putin.

bufferoverflow 5y ago
Or not peacefully. Who cares, he is an insane dictator who caused thousands of deaths.
- tshaddox 5y ago
  pssssst nuclear weapons

FpUser 5y ago

Dreamland. Putin is a deranged murderer and he has so far good support (or they are just scared shitless) in duma and enforcement. Right now they're putting protesters in jail because there are relatively few. If protesters follow former US ambassador's Michael McFaul's advise (I think dumb one) and show up in hundreds of thousands the shooting will start and it might provoke him to press that red button. The only hope I really have that the close circle and the enforcement part would render Putin out of the picture. But for that they have to have a way out. As it stands now they're all booked for ICC and have no reason to do anything like that.

HideousKojima 5y ago
Putin is a corrupt murderer but I've seen very little to suggest that he's deranged or otherwise insane. And depending on how firm the west is about sticking to sanctions (i.e. will Europe quietly roll them back after gas prices spike?) his choice to invade Ukraine may even be a smart move for him from a geopolitical perspective.
- cmurf 5y ago
  The west has area areas when it comes to the U.N. Charter, but Putin has gone way over the line to exactly why the U.N. founded to prevent. The west will stick to the multilateral system until nukes drop, and will sooner close the Russian oil and gas spigot entirely than abandon it. Cutting off 50% of the flow by my reading translates into around $150 per barrel oil which is in the realm of $7/gallon gas at the pump. Europeans pay on average $7-8/gallon for a long time. Cutting it off entirely? Someone else will have a better idea if that could be in the range of $10/gallon or $20. Of course it will cause problems. Folks might decide in a couple years they like cheap gas more, and then end up in another world war with even higher prices anyway just because they have no imagination about what a completely stupid move this was from a geopolitical perspective.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Europe isn't going to roll back anything, they can move to US, Mexico, Venezuela, Middle East gas sources although it will be painful. They are not going to enrich the guy who is trying to reconquer Europe. Germany will start spending a bunch more on their military now as well as Russia is a traditional enemy.

goto11 5y ago

The best case is if the current inner circle "convince" him to step down. A new regime could come to some compromise and blame the fiasco on Putin drinking too much vodka. Popular uprisings against Putin would be a bloodbath and could turn into a civil war.

stjohnswarts 5y ago
Everyone knows Putin is a teetotaler.

spaetzleesser 5y ago

I am not so sure if the average Russian citizen thinks Putin is that bad. From the outside it looks like life has massively improved during Putin’s reign. We shouldn’t forget how things were in Russia before Putin. Maybe the Ukrainian situation is the turning point. If the sanctions cause pain in Russia people’s view of Putin may change.

astkaasa 5y ago

There's an opinion that Russian conservative people like Strelkov[0] are more radical than Putin. And they feel that Putin should done these things at 2014, for 2022 it's already a little bit late. If Putin cannot achieve his goal, these neo-imperialist people will overthrow him and continue this war. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin