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So, and I realize all answers will be pure conjecture, what happens if the sanctions work? What's the end game? Can the proverbial tiger be put back in the cage

So, and I realize all answers will be pure conjecture, what happens if the sanctions work? What's the end game? Can the proverbial tiger be put back in the cage? Russia has invaded Ukraine and Europe has responded in a unified manor. China gave muted support, but largely stayed out of it (at least vocally - but still traded with them). China is, of course, watching very closely, as they have their own expansionist interests. How does/can Russia get out of this and save face? Where will this go with social/cyber warfare - it has to ramp-up dramatically, no? Now that western Europe has increased its military spending, what does that mean for the "World Police" American stance that has been so prevalent since the late 40's? Does this, in fact push forward clean technology, or will it hinder it as now America and Canada sit in a prime spot to export fuel and make record profits for decades - environment be damned? I know, a lot of questions and I apologize =) Some I have my own "answers" to, but, like I said, all conjecture.

CabSauce 5y ago
Hopefully with Russian citizens (peacefully) ousting Putin.
- tomp 5y ago
  What probably do you assign to that? I assign non-trivial probability to “ousting” but practically 0% chance of “peacefully” - more like “go out with a bang”.
  - watwut 5y ago
    Given that their only source of info is state media, I don't think it is realistic to expect uprising
    - Exmoor 5y ago
      Utter speculation on my part, but I see this as both a weakness and a strength for Putin. On one hand, as long as the government and whoever controls what goes out on state media are on his side it helps Putin. If, however, that control breaks down and the people in those positions lose confidence in Putin than the leverage reverses and they can easily use their media in the opposite direction.
    - def_true_false 5y ago
      Why do you think their only source of info is state media? Do you think Russians don't have internet, social networks, group chats?
      - philovivero 5y ago
        In the USA, there is nothing stopping you from going to learn all the pro-Trump, anti-vax, anti-mask propaganda you want, yet millions of people do not. What makes you think it's any easier for someone to leave their filter bubble in Russia, where the consequences aren't just losing your job and social ingroup, but also being kidnapped, tortured, and being found dead in a ditch five years from now?
      - watwut 5y ago
        All in all, on average, primary source of info. Afaik, a lot of works goes into controlling which parts of internet are well accessible and which are not. The social networks and group chats are amplifier of what you see elsewhere. They don't bring new information from outside into debate. They are also reflection of what you consider appropriate or safe to share. And with new criminalization of "disinformation about war", it will be less. And right now, as far as Russian official version is, afaik, Ukranians are nazi child killers and Russia is there to denazify and protect regions of it. Moreover, ousting Putin requires more then unhappy disagreeing populace. It requires either super weak regime or internal coup of powerful players. Regime is not weak currently.
        def_true_false 5y ago
        People still remember Chechnya and Afghanistan, so I think they expect to have to use unofficial sources for certain kinds of information, like getting information about their dead or missing relatives. I guess we'll see what happens when the coffins start coming back. Putin's regime wouldn't be the first to fall over a failed war.
    - vegai_ 5y ago
      Did they have truthful media in 1917?
      - watwut 5y ago
        Like, who exactly? If you mean Russia, they had years of internal violence behind them. They had well established revolutionary movements and terror groups acting inside on top of it even before WWI. And the regime was weak and forced to do concessions already in run up to WWI and even weaker by end of it. They were doing reforms, too little too late, but they were doing them because internal pressure was strong for years. That revolution did not came out of nowhere. Plus, the population was literally hungry and desperate to large extend. And plus, it was followed by major civil war of like 5 sides competing for power.
    - awb 5y ago
      Some must see planes turning around, body bags coming home, ships not leaving port, the stock market staying closed for three days straight, friends withdrawing cash, family at sanctioned companies afraid of losing their jobs, etc. and know that something is up. I don’t think everyone is brainwashed by state media, some just ignore it or tolerate it to stay out of trouble. I don’t think a civil uprising is likely though due to Russia’s police, military, legal system and covert ops that are willing to dramatically intimidate or eliminate political threats. Any uprising is going to come from generals sick of bombing civilians or oligarchs sick of losing money IMO.
- tshaddox 5y ago
  How would they do that peacefully? Surely whether or not it would be peaceful would be up to Putin.
  - bufferoverflow 5y ago
    Or not peacefully. Who cares, he is an insane dictator who caused thousands of deaths.
    - tshaddox 5y ago
      pssssst nuclear weapons
- FpUser 5y ago
  Dreamland. Putin is a deranged murderer and he has so far good support (or they are just scared shitless) in duma and enforcement. Right now they're putting protesters in jail because there are relatively few. If protesters follow former US ambassador's Michael McFaul's advise (I think dumb one) and show up in hundreds of thousands the shooting will start and it might provoke him to press that red button. The only hope I really have that the close circle and the enforcement part would render Putin out of the picture. But for that they have to have a way out. As it stands now they're all booked for ICC and have no reason to do anything like that.
  - HideousKojima 5y ago
    Putin is a corrupt murderer but I've seen very little to suggest that he's deranged or otherwise insane. And depending on how firm the west is about sticking to sanctions (i.e. will Europe quietly roll them back after gas prices spike?) his choice to invade Ukraine may even be a smart move for him from a geopolitical perspective.
    - cmurf 5y ago
      The west has area areas when it comes to the U.N. Charter, but Putin has gone way over the line to exactly why the U.N. founded to prevent. The west will stick to the multilateral system until nukes drop, and will sooner close the Russian oil and gas spigot entirely than abandon it. Cutting off 50% of the flow by my reading translates into around $150 per barrel oil which is in the realm of $7/gallon gas at the pump. Europeans pay on average $7-8/gallon for a long time. Cutting it off entirely? Someone else will have a better idea if that could be in the range of $10/gallon or $20. Of course it will cause problems. Folks might decide in a couple years they like cheap gas more, and then end up in another world war with even higher prices anyway just because they have no imagination about what a completely stupid move this was from a geopolitical perspective.
    - stjohnswarts 5y ago
      Europe isn't going to roll back anything, they can move to US, Mexico, Venezuela, Middle East gas sources although it will be painful. They are not going to enrich the guy who is trying to reconquer Europe. Germany will start spending a bunch more on their military now as well as Russia is a traditional enemy.
- goto11 5y ago
  The best case is if the current inner circle "convince" him to step down. A new regime could come to some compromise and blame the fiasco on Putin drinking too much vodka. Popular uprisings against Putin would be a bloodbath and could turn into a civil war.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    Everyone knows Putin is a teetotaler.
- spaetzleesser 5y ago
  I am not so sure if the average Russian citizen thinks Putin is that bad. From the outside it looks like life has massively improved during Putin’s reign. We shouldn’t forget how things were in Russia before Putin. Maybe the Ukrainian situation is the turning point. If the sanctions cause pain in Russia people’s view of Putin may change.
- astkaasa 5y ago
  There's an opinion that Russian conservative people like Strelkov[0] are more radical than Putin. And they feel that Putin should done these things at 2014, for 2022 it's already a little bit late. If Putin cannot achieve his goal, these neo-imperialist people will overthrow him and continue this war. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin
NicoJuicy 5y ago
It's not about cutting citizens off from the world. It's about minimizing financial capabilities of an aggressor. So, even when they are not disposed, they can do less harm. Eg. Their technological advancement will be crippled for decades to come, because they will still want to maintain their existing fleet. Even now, Russia sells their tech advancement in military tech to others ( eg. India) and doesn't use it much for themselves because of cost. Even while they are investing 6% of their GDP into military. That 6% in military that they invest now, will become much less in absolute value in the future. So it will be easier to outcompete them with a 1% investment of richer economies and concentrate on things besides military. Just my 2 cents.
- cmurf 5y ago
  This is why China and India need to get on board with sanctions. We know what's coming should Russia continue with this attack, let alone escalation... the Russian oil and gas spigot gets turned off. At a certain point, anyone still buying from them, is aiding their war effort.
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    To get India onboard, you need to export weapons to them and compete with Russia. China has it's own goal with this, they won't get onboard.
femiagbabiaka 5y ago
Sanctions have never worked against Russia and they're now in a better position to resist them than ever before. So in the spirit of pure conjecture, some of my own: likely outcome is a reworking of the global economy. There will be the NATO bloc and the China-Russia bloc. It isn't impossible that there will be targetted trade deals between the two superblocs in 5-10 years. On a tech related note any country not making plans to repatriate all critical internet infrastructure ala China is basically trolling themselves. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw peering agreements between China and Russia, sort of an expansion of the great firewall, especially if sanctions persist. As for clean technology.. lol. In my opinion the US and Canada are not serious about it. Germany has been making the wrong moves when it comes to renewables, and they're the largest EU economy.. So the chance of this affecting that seems small, but who knows. The energy crisis that is coming soon to the EU may change that.
- spaetzleesser 5y ago
  I think there will be a new Cold War, this time Russia/China vs the West. This may not be a bad outcome. I think it will be good for the average citizen of developed countries in a lot of countries if globalization gets slowed a little. We traded cheap crap for a big increase in job insecurity and rising inequality.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > I think there will be a new Cold War, this time Russia/China vs the West. This may not be a bad outcome. I think it will be good for the average citizen of developed countries in a lot of countries if globalization gets slowed a little. We traded cheap crap for a big increase in job insecurity and rising inequality. I agree. Globalization has had a lot of economic and social negatives (e.g. selling your fishing rod to buy a fish), and it's delusional at this point to think it will do anything to address the deep political differences and fundamental rivalries that exist between the blocs. There's probably a lesson somewhere in this about keeping economists on tighter leashes.
    - somewhereoutth 5y ago
ukraineally 5y ago
>So, and I realize all answers will be pure conjecture, what happens if the sanctions work? What's the end game? Can the proverbial tiger be put back in the cage? Literally everyone in the world is hoping the sanctions work. If it does, it tells the world even a nuclear power can't attack sovereign nations and get away with it. If it doesn't... then humanity is not post-war and we're about to get into a nuclear world war. >Russia has invaded Ukraine and Europe has responded in a unified manor. China gave muted support, but largely stayed out of it (at least vocally - but still traded with them). No they didn't. China picked up the phone with Putin on day 1 and said peace talks immediately and made comment they respect Ukraines sovereignty as well as the security needs for all involved. China appears to have been sideswipped and used as as shield by putin. >China is, of course, watching very closely, as they have their own expansionist interests. This is seeming more and more like Russian propaganda. China has 75 years of foreign policy showing no expansion. They have all the factories and a gigantic standing army. They could expand and take quite alot. Yet they dont because they know war isn't the way. Invest the war money back in yourself and grow taller. >How does/can Russia get out of this and save face? Every good negotiator makes it possible for their opponent to save face. Russia has a huge and simple one they provided themselves. "Nazi government was toppled, we are guaranteeing the new republics. White Peace out." Though to get sanctions lifted im sure there will be reparations to be paid. >Where will this go with social/cyber warfare - it has to ramp-up dramatically, no? Now that western Europe has increased its military spending, what does that mean for the "World Police" American stance that has been so prevalent since the late 40's? Everyone is making this about the USA... the Russian propaganda was running all these 'USA imperialism' which hey... they have to get in line... the commonwealth is up first... but the USA didn't do anything. Didnt get involved other than showing unity with the EU. Russia probably predicted the USA would act. In fact, it looks like an awful lot of effort is being done to curb the ongoing russian propaganda internally for most countries. > Does this, in fact push forward clean technology, or will it hinder it as now America and Canada sit in a prime spot to export fuel and make record profits for decades - environment be damned? Usa and Canada are leading the way with clean tech in many ways. We have 10,000 trees per person. Canadian solar is top notch. Our automotive industry has pivoted in an instant to manufacturing EVs. Coal plants are gone or going? The only thing I think Canada is missing out on is nuclear fusion. The world needs oil still. Oil rich countries are switching over. Lets not exclude awesome scandanavian countries. This hasn't been some sort of Canadian conspiracy to convince Russia to attack a sovereign neighbour. This is Canada being a good ally and offering conflict-free oil.
paxys 5y ago
All of these questions are what global policy analysts and advisors debate for years and write entire books about. There is really nothing people can write in this thread which would even start to make sense of all this.
- femiagbabiaka 5y ago
  global policy analysts and advisors are the ones who influenced the policies that led to the current state of things. in comparison to that, wild conjecture on hacker news is pretty much gold imo
secondcoming 5y ago
If the sanctions work it's the end of Putin (both literally and figuratively). Personally, I think every country is looking at how much it relies on other countries to get by. Europe is too reliant on Russia for gas, and most of the world is too reliant on China for pretty much everything except food. I don't see this lasting another 10 years.
- awb 5y ago
  If this all ends well then it could be a case study in promoting economic investment / economic warfare with adversaries. The idea is that they get dependent on that foreign investment and the threat of it being taken away and are much more amenable than an adversary that is completely disconnected economically and has nothing to lose.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
Optimally Putin is deposed in some fashion or another by one or all of the high powered individuals in Russia because he is killing everything they worked their lives to build up. Worst case nuclear war and it doesn't matter any more.
astkaasa 5y ago
Actually EU and US is still traded with Russia
- simonh 5y ago
  This is an important point, we have not cut off Russia completely because Europe is heavily dependent on it's oil and gas. What we have done is shut down almost everything except that critical oil and gas (and probably wheat). Since 2014 Europe has invested a fair bit in diversifying it's potential energy sources by building gas shipping terminals and increasing integration between national pipeline infrastructure, and this will need to be put into overdrive.
JohnTHaller 5y ago
Word is a lot of folks in Europe are happy that Biden has stepped up to bring things together but don't think the same would happen if Trump was still around. So, they're planning on ensuring they can move forward if the US's leadership weakens in another couple years.
- mbg721 5y ago
  There's somebody who perceives Biden as a strong leader?? In the US, divided as it is, polling would suggest that even his supporters don't feel that way.
  - JohnTHaller 5y ago
    I didn't say they or I thought he was a strong leader. But in relation to the invasion, Biden seems to have put in the work working with NATO and allied leaders to ensure the sanctions could be enacted swiftly and broadly and has publicly and privately expressed strong support for NATO. This contrasts with his predecessor who openly discussed his desire to withdraw at different points in time. European diplomats have apparently expressed that they wouldn't expect any support from Trump if he were in power now.

CabSauce 5y ago

Hopefully with Russian citizens (peacefully) ousting Putin.

tomp 5y ago
What probably do you assign to that? I assign non-trivial probability to “ousting” but practically 0% chance of “peacefully” - more like “go out with a bang”.
- watwut 5y ago
  Given that their only source of info is state media, I don't think it is realistic to expect uprising
  - Exmoor 5y ago
    Utter speculation on my part, but I see this as both a weakness and a strength for Putin. On one hand, as long as the government and whoever controls what goes out on state media are on his side it helps Putin. If, however, that control breaks down and the people in those positions lose confidence in Putin than the leverage reverses and they can easily use their media in the opposite direction.
  - def_true_false 5y ago
    Why do you think their only source of info is state media? Do you think Russians don't have internet, social networks, group chats?
    - philovivero 5y ago
      In the USA, there is nothing stopping you from going to learn all the pro-Trump, anti-vax, anti-mask propaganda you want, yet millions of people do not. What makes you think it's any easier for someone to leave their filter bubble in Russia, where the consequences aren't just losing your job and social ingroup, but also being kidnapped, tortured, and being found dead in a ditch five years from now?
    - watwut 5y ago
      All in all, on average, primary source of info. Afaik, a lot of works goes into controlling which parts of internet are well accessible and which are not. The social networks and group chats are amplifier of what you see elsewhere. They don't bring new information from outside into debate. They are also reflection of what you consider appropriate or safe to share. And with new criminalization of "disinformation about war", it will be less. And right now, as far as Russian official version is, afaik, Ukranians are nazi child killers and Russia is there to denazify and protect regions of it. Moreover, ousting Putin requires more then unhappy disagreeing populace. It requires either super weak regime or internal coup of powerful players. Regime is not weak currently.
      - def_true_false 5y ago
        People still remember Chechnya and Afghanistan, so I think they expect to have to use unofficial sources for certain kinds of information, like getting information about their dead or missing relatives. I guess we'll see what happens when the coffins start coming back. Putin's regime wouldn't be the first to fall over a failed war.
  - vegai_ 5y ago
    Did they have truthful media in 1917?
    - watwut 5y ago
      Like, who exactly? If you mean Russia, they had years of internal violence behind them. They had well established revolutionary movements and terror groups acting inside on top of it even before WWI. And the regime was weak and forced to do concessions already in run up to WWI and even weaker by end of it. They were doing reforms, too little too late, but they were doing them because internal pressure was strong for years. That revolution did not came out of nowhere. Plus, the population was literally hungry and desperate to large extend. And plus, it was followed by major civil war of like 5 sides competing for power.
  - awb 5y ago
    Some must see planes turning around, body bags coming home, ships not leaving port, the stock market staying closed for three days straight, friends withdrawing cash, family at sanctioned companies afraid of losing their jobs, etc. and know that something is up. I don’t think everyone is brainwashed by state media, some just ignore it or tolerate it to stay out of trouble. I don’t think a civil uprising is likely though due to Russia’s police, military, legal system and covert ops that are willing to dramatically intimidate or eliminate political threats. Any uprising is going to come from generals sick of bombing civilians or oligarchs sick of losing money IMO.
tshaddox 5y ago
How would they do that peacefully? Surely whether or not it would be peaceful would be up to Putin.
- bufferoverflow 5y ago
  Or not peacefully. Who cares, he is an insane dictator who caused thousands of deaths.
  - tshaddox 5y ago
    pssssst nuclear weapons
FpUser 5y ago
Dreamland. Putin is a deranged murderer and he has so far good support (or they are just scared shitless) in duma and enforcement. Right now they're putting protesters in jail because there are relatively few. If protesters follow former US ambassador's Michael McFaul's advise (I think dumb one) and show up in hundreds of thousands the shooting will start and it might provoke him to press that red button. The only hope I really have that the close circle and the enforcement part would render Putin out of the picture. But for that they have to have a way out. As it stands now they're all booked for ICC and have no reason to do anything like that.
- HideousKojima 5y ago
  Putin is a corrupt murderer but I've seen very little to suggest that he's deranged or otherwise insane. And depending on how firm the west is about sticking to sanctions (i.e. will Europe quietly roll them back after gas prices spike?) his choice to invade Ukraine may even be a smart move for him from a geopolitical perspective.
  - cmurf 5y ago
    The west has area areas when it comes to the U.N. Charter, but Putin has gone way over the line to exactly why the U.N. founded to prevent. The west will stick to the multilateral system until nukes drop, and will sooner close the Russian oil and gas spigot entirely than abandon it. Cutting off 50% of the flow by my reading translates into around $150 per barrel oil which is in the realm of $7/gallon gas at the pump. Europeans pay on average $7-8/gallon for a long time. Cutting it off entirely? Someone else will have a better idea if that could be in the range of $10/gallon or $20. Of course it will cause problems. Folks might decide in a couple years they like cheap gas more, and then end up in another world war with even higher prices anyway just because they have no imagination about what a completely stupid move this was from a geopolitical perspective.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    Europe isn't going to roll back anything, they can move to US, Mexico, Venezuela, Middle East gas sources although it will be painful. They are not going to enrich the guy who is trying to reconquer Europe. Germany will start spending a bunch more on their military now as well as Russia is a traditional enemy.
goto11 5y ago
The best case is if the current inner circle "convince" him to step down. A new regime could come to some compromise and blame the fiasco on Putin drinking too much vodka. Popular uprisings against Putin would be a bloodbath and could turn into a civil war.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Everyone knows Putin is a teetotaler.
spaetzleesser 5y ago
I am not so sure if the average Russian citizen thinks Putin is that bad. From the outside it looks like life has massively improved during Putin’s reign. We shouldn’t forget how things were in Russia before Putin. Maybe the Ukrainian situation is the turning point. If the sanctions cause pain in Russia people’s view of Putin may change.
astkaasa 5y ago
There's an opinion that Russian conservative people like Strelkov[0] are more radical than Putin. And they feel that Putin should done these things at 2014, for 2022 it's already a little bit late. If Putin cannot achieve his goal, these neo-imperialist people will overthrow him and continue this war. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

NicoJuicy 5y ago

It's not about cutting citizens off from the world. It's about minimizing financial capabilities of an aggressor. So, even when they are not disposed, they can do less harm. Eg. Their technological advancement will be crippled for decades to come, because they will still want to maintain their existing fleet. Even now, Russia sells their tech advancement in military tech to others ( eg. India) and doesn't use it much for themselves because of cost. Even while they are investing 6% of their GDP into military. That 6% in military that they invest now, will become much less in absolute value in the future. So it will be easier to outcompete them with a 1% investment of richer economies and concentrate on things besides military. Just my 2 cents.

cmurf 5y ago
This is why China and India need to get on board with sanctions. We know what's coming should Russia continue with this attack, let alone escalation... the Russian oil and gas spigot gets turned off. At a certain point, anyone still buying from them, is aiding their war effort.
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  To get India onboard, you need to export weapons to them and compete with Russia. China has it's own goal with this, they won't get onboard.

femiagbabiaka 5y ago

Sanctions have never worked against Russia and they're now in a better position to resist them than ever before. So in the spirit of pure conjecture, some of my own: likely outcome is a reworking of the global economy. There will be the NATO bloc and the China-Russia bloc. It isn't impossible that there will be targetted trade deals between the two superblocs in 5-10 years. On a tech related note any country not making plans to repatriate all critical internet infrastructure ala China is basically trolling themselves. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw peering agreements between China and Russia, sort of an expansion of the great firewall, especially if sanctions persist. As for clean technology.. lol. In my opinion the US and Canada are not serious about it. Germany has been making the wrong moves when it comes to renewables, and they're the largest EU economy.. So the chance of this affecting that seems small, but who knows. The energy crisis that is coming soon to the EU may change that.

spaetzleesser 5y ago
I think there will be a new Cold War, this time Russia/China vs the West. This may not be a bad outcome. I think it will be good for the average citizen of developed countries in a lot of countries if globalization gets slowed a little. We traded cheap crap for a big increase in job insecurity and rising inequality.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > I think there will be a new Cold War, this time Russia/China vs the West. This may not be a bad outcome. I think it will be good for the average citizen of developed countries in a lot of countries if globalization gets slowed a little. We traded cheap crap for a big increase in job insecurity and rising inequality. I agree. Globalization has had a lot of economic and social negatives (e.g. selling your fishing rod to buy a fish), and it's delusional at this point to think it will do anything to address the deep political differences and fundamental rivalries that exist between the blocs. There's probably a lesson somewhere in this about keeping economists on tighter leashes.
  - somewhereoutth 5y ago

ukraineally 5y ago

>So, and I realize all answers will be pure conjecture, what happens if the sanctions work? What's the end game? Can the proverbial tiger be put back in the cage? Literally everyone in the world is hoping the sanctions work. If it does, it tells the world even a nuclear power can't attack sovereign nations and get away with it. If it doesn't... then humanity is not post-war and we're about to get into a nuclear world war. >Russia has invaded Ukraine and Europe has responded in a unified manor. China gave muted support, but largely stayed out of it (at least vocally - but still traded with them). No they didn't. China picked up the phone with Putin on day 1 and said peace talks immediately and made comment they respect Ukraines sovereignty as well as the security needs for all involved. China appears to have been sideswipped and used as as shield by putin. >China is, of course, watching very closely, as they have their own expansionist interests. This is seeming more and more like Russian propaganda. China has 75 years of foreign policy showing no expansion. They have all the factories and a gigantic standing army. They could expand and take quite alot. Yet they dont because they know war isn't the way. Invest the war money back in yourself and grow taller. >How does/can Russia get out of this and save face? Every good negotiator makes it possible for their opponent to save face. Russia has a huge and simple one they provided themselves. "Nazi government was toppled, we are guaranteeing the new republics. White Peace out." Though to get sanctions lifted im sure there will be reparations to be paid. >Where will this go with social/cyber warfare - it has to ramp-up dramatically, no? Now that western Europe has increased its military spending, what does that mean for the "World Police" American stance that has been so prevalent since the late 40's? Everyone is making this about the USA... the Russian propaganda was running all these 'USA imperialism' which hey... they have to get in line... the commonwealth is up first... but the USA didn't do anything. Didnt get involved other than showing unity with the EU. Russia probably predicted the USA would act. In fact, it looks like an awful lot of effort is being done to curb the ongoing russian propaganda internally for most countries. > Does this, in fact push forward clean technology, or will it hinder it as now America and Canada sit in a prime spot to export fuel and make record profits for decades - environment be damned? Usa and Canada are leading the way with clean tech in many ways. We have 10,000 trees per person. Canadian solar is top notch. Our automotive industry has pivoted in an instant to manufacturing EVs. Coal plants are gone or going? The only thing I think Canada is missing out on is nuclear fusion. The world needs oil still. Oil rich countries are switching over. Lets not exclude awesome scandanavian countries. This hasn't been some sort of Canadian conspiracy to convince Russia to attack a sovereign neighbour. This is Canada being a good ally and offering conflict-free oil.

paxys 5y ago

All of these questions are what global policy analysts and advisors debate for years and write entire books about. There is really nothing people can write in this thread which would even start to make sense of all this.

femiagbabiaka 5y ago
global policy analysts and advisors are the ones who influenced the policies that led to the current state of things. in comparison to that, wild conjecture on hacker news is pretty much gold imo

secondcoming 5y ago

If the sanctions work it's the end of Putin (both literally and figuratively). Personally, I think every country is looking at how much it relies on other countries to get by. Europe is too reliant on Russia for gas, and most of the world is too reliant on China for pretty much everything except food. I don't see this lasting another 10 years.

awb 5y ago
If this all ends well then it could be a case study in promoting economic investment / economic warfare with adversaries. The idea is that they get dependent on that foreign investment and the threat of it being taken away and are much more amenable than an adversary that is completely disconnected economically and has nothing to lose.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

Optimally Putin is deposed in some fashion or another by one or all of the high powered individuals in Russia because he is killing everything they worked their lives to build up. Worst case nuclear war and it doesn't matter any more.

astkaasa 5y ago

Actually EU and US is still traded with Russia

simonh 5y ago
This is an important point, we have not cut off Russia completely because Europe is heavily dependent on it's oil and gas. What we have done is shut down almost everything except that critical oil and gas (and probably wheat). Since 2014 Europe has invested a fair bit in diversifying it's potential energy sources by building gas shipping terminals and increasing integration between national pipeline infrastructure, and this will need to be put into overdrive.

JohnTHaller 5y ago

Word is a lot of folks in Europe are happy that Biden has stepped up to bring things together but don't think the same would happen if Trump was still around. So, they're planning on ensuring they can move forward if the US's leadership weakens in another couple years.

mbg721 5y ago
There's somebody who perceives Biden as a strong leader?? In the US, divided as it is, polling would suggest that even his supporters don't feel that way.
- JohnTHaller 5y ago
  I didn't say they or I thought he was a strong leader. But in relation to the invasion, Biden seems to have put in the work working with NATO and allied leaders to ensure the sanctions could be enacted swiftly and broadly and has publicly and privately expressed strong support for NATO. This contrasts with his predecessor who openly discussed his desire to withdraw at different points in time. European diplomats have apparently expressed that they wouldn't expect any support from Trump if he were in power now.