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Well, indoor temperatures would still probably not get that hot thankfully in many places so most people would be able to survive. Millions dead from it in a tw

Well, indoor temperatures would still probably not get that hot thankfully in many places so most people would be able to survive. Millions dead from it in a two day period likely wouldn’t happen. Also peak temps usually only last a few hours with significant drops outside. The hottest day ever in Phoenix hit 122F but the day started at 90 and ended around 100. Also in places likes this everyone’s AC runs non-stop every day for 6 months a year at peak times and the power grid doesn’t fail. Power grids fail in places that aren’t used to it, like what happened when Dallas froze. People will die from it, sure, but millions of deaths in a few days from a heatwave isn’t going to happen.

sidewndr46 5y ago
When you say "ended" do you mean sundown or midnight?
klyrs 5y ago
The amount of power an a/c unit requires to maintain a fixed inside temperature grows with the outside temperature. If folks are already running their a/c nonstop, are they actually prepared for significantly higher temperatures? And if they aren't actually running 24/7 at full blast, is the grid prepared for that?
- mattmaroon 5y ago
  Significantly higher temperatures aren’t what we’re talking about. We’re talking about a 10-15F spike. Because heat flows at a rate proportional to the delta, it’s useful to think in terms of the delta between outdoor temperatures and desired indoor (let’s say 70 to make the math easy). So Phoenix has a few 120Fcdays a year, so delta of 50, and we’re talking 135F (so delta 65) for a 30% increase. Most peoples AC is not sized to handle that, so it already runs basically full stop on the hottest days and can’t quite keep up. Maybe your home is 75 instead of 70. Making the exterior hotter has no effect of your power consumption once your AC is running full blast, it just makes the interior warm, so some people are going to have 80+ degree houses. They’ll be annoyed but won’t die and the power might spike let’s say 25%. The power grids in these places are equipped for that because it’s life or death. You never hear about Vegas or Phoenix having a blackout on a particularly hot day because it’s not unexpected. Same with cold days in Minnesota. (You hear about it in California but that’s due to mismanagement and often unrelated to weather anyway.) Now in Dallas when they froze you were looking 0F temps or thereabouts in a place where average winter temps are 56 and peak lows around 40. Further complicating it was that supplies of fossil fuels for heating ran out because it went on for so long. So you went from let’s say a 30 degree delta to 70, and electrical demand even higher than you’d expect when they ran out of natural gas and started plugging in space heaters. So you’re looking at like 2-3x previous peak demand, rather than 1.3. Nobody’s grid is prepared for that. So again I’m fairly confident that if Phoenix hits a peak of 135 it is going to suck and a few hundred people will die for sure. It won’t be millions. Global warming thankfully grows on 1 degree per decade kind of time scales which sucks ecologically but isn’t faster than we can grow the grid.
  - klyrs 5y ago
    > Global warming thankfully grows on 1 degree per decade kind of time scales which sucks ecologically but isn’t faster than we can grow the grid. I live in BC, which saw all-time record temperatures which killed about 400 people last year. Temperatures were about 10°C higher than a typical year. While average temperatures might grow slowly, peak temperatures are a different story.
    - mattmaroon 5y ago
      I don’t think that’s true of desert climates though. Here’s Phoenix’s highest temp by year. You can see it barely budges at all. https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/AZ/Phoenix/extreme-annual-phoenix-high-temperature.php https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/AZ/Phoenix...
- valenterry 5y ago
  The a/c doesn't even have to cool down. It's sufficient to dry the air and that requires much less energy.
  - klyrs 5y ago
    I agree, but does that describe the a/c units that folks are equipped with today? There's a big difference between "this problem can be solved" and "this problem has been solved." Side note, I would love it if more a/c merely dried the air. I hate going into office buildings that are set 20C below the outdoor temperature.
    - valenterry 5y ago
      Sure, this needs coordination - not saying that it's an easy solution. > Side note, I would love it if more a/c merely dried the air. Yeah - having a very light breeze and dry (but not too dry) air is all that's needed for the vast majority to not feel sweaty or even hot. I would only ever buy an a/c with an efficient dry-mode.
      - klyrs 5y ago
        Right. So in a hypothetical world where everybody can afford to buy a new a/c unit, the risk that millions will die in a heat wave is negligible. Down here in the real world, it's a distinct possibility.
        valenterry 5y ago
        I think it would probably be enough to broadcast on media/news that people are not allowed to cool anymore
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
lmilcin 5y ago
Most people living in places where wet bulb can get 35C have very little insulation from environment in their houses and very few people have means to afford AC.
- mattmaroon 5y ago
  That’s not been my experience both domestically and internationally. Cities like Vegas and Phoenix didn’t exist (and cities like Lima and Cairo were much smaller) before AC. People simply wouldn’t be here if they couldn’t afford it. Domestically, it’s a legal requirement. You can’t legally build a home or rent one without it, anymore than you could without heating in Minnesota.

sidewndr46 5y ago

When you say "ended" do you mean sundown or midnight?

klyrs 5y ago

The amount of power an a/c unit requires to maintain a fixed inside temperature grows with the outside temperature. If folks are already running their a/c nonstop, are they actually prepared for significantly higher temperatures? And if they aren't actually running 24/7 at full blast, is the grid prepared for that?

mattmaroon 5y ago
Significantly higher temperatures aren’t what we’re talking about. We’re talking about a 10-15F spike. Because heat flows at a rate proportional to the delta, it’s useful to think in terms of the delta between outdoor temperatures and desired indoor (let’s say 70 to make the math easy). So Phoenix has a few 120Fcdays a year, so delta of 50, and we’re talking 135F (so delta 65) for a 30% increase. Most peoples AC is not sized to handle that, so it already runs basically full stop on the hottest days and can’t quite keep up. Maybe your home is 75 instead of 70. Making the exterior hotter has no effect of your power consumption once your AC is running full blast, it just makes the interior warm, so some people are going to have 80+ degree houses. They’ll be annoyed but won’t die and the power might spike let’s say 25%. The power grids in these places are equipped for that because it’s life or death. You never hear about Vegas or Phoenix having a blackout on a particularly hot day because it’s not unexpected. Same with cold days in Minnesota. (You hear about it in California but that’s due to mismanagement and often unrelated to weather anyway.) Now in Dallas when they froze you were looking 0F temps or thereabouts in a place where average winter temps are 56 and peak lows around 40. Further complicating it was that supplies of fossil fuels for heating ran out because it went on for so long. So you went from let’s say a 30 degree delta to 70, and electrical demand even higher than you’d expect when they ran out of natural gas and started plugging in space heaters. So you’re looking at like 2-3x previous peak demand, rather than 1.3. Nobody’s grid is prepared for that. So again I’m fairly confident that if Phoenix hits a peak of 135 it is going to suck and a few hundred people will die for sure. It won’t be millions. Global warming thankfully grows on 1 degree per decade kind of time scales which sucks ecologically but isn’t faster than we can grow the grid.
- klyrs 5y ago
  > Global warming thankfully grows on 1 degree per decade kind of time scales which sucks ecologically but isn’t faster than we can grow the grid. I live in BC, which saw all-time record temperatures which killed about 400 people last year. Temperatures were about 10°C higher than a typical year. While average temperatures might grow slowly, peak temperatures are a different story.
  - mattmaroon 5y ago
    I don’t think that’s true of desert climates though. Here’s Phoenix’s highest temp by year. You can see it barely budges at all. https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/AZ/Phoenix/extreme-annual-phoenix-high-temperature.php https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/AZ/Phoenix...
valenterry 5y ago
The a/c doesn't even have to cool down. It's sufficient to dry the air and that requires much less energy.
- klyrs 5y ago
  I agree, but does that describe the a/c units that folks are equipped with today? There's a big difference between "this problem can be solved" and "this problem has been solved." Side note, I would love it if more a/c merely dried the air. I hate going into office buildings that are set 20C below the outdoor temperature.
  - valenterry 5y ago
    Sure, this needs coordination - not saying that it's an easy solution. > Side note, I would love it if more a/c merely dried the air. Yeah - having a very light breeze and dry (but not too dry) air is all that's needed for the vast majority to not feel sweaty or even hot. I would only ever buy an a/c with an efficient dry-mode.
    - klyrs 5y ago
      Right. So in a hypothetical world where everybody can afford to buy a new a/c unit, the risk that millions will die in a heat wave is negligible. Down here in the real world, it's a distinct possibility.
      - valenterry 5y ago
        I think it would probably be enough to broadcast on media/news that people are not allowed to cool anymore
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

lmilcin 5y ago

Most people living in places where wet bulb can get 35C have very little insulation from environment in their houses and very few people have means to afford AC.

mattmaroon 5y ago
That’s not been my experience both domestically and internationally. Cities like Vegas and Phoenix didn’t exist (and cities like Lima and Cairo were much smaller) before AC. People simply wouldn’t be here if they couldn’t afford it. Domestically, it’s a legal requirement. You can’t legally build a home or rent one without it, anymore than you could without heating in Minnesota.