3 ms·

#1 Putinversteher. The reason he's been right about some things is because he has aligned his theories with Putin's worldview so Putin does what he expects, but

by sidibe 5y ago

#1 Putinversteher. The reason he's been right about some things is because he has aligned his theories with Putin's worldview so Putin does what he expects, but he hasn't accounted for any other actors like Ukrainian people or the EU. Some of these geopolitical academics are obsessed with USA, China, and Russia, noone else has agency and the only thing that matters about others is their relation to these 3

goatsneez 5y ago
I would say if you want to understand someone (especially in geopolitical power play) you better align your model of that entity to reflect his/her world view. That is precisely the diplomacy mistake (to ignore to discuss someone else's interests, especially since they were communicated and signaled for many years) "west" has been making in this conflict as Prof. Mearsheimer says. I do not think there are any assumptions about agency or not of other players. They have also stakes, but are not of strategic importance to the stronger guys. For instance, Austria and Germany has been aggressively pressuring Czech Rep. to close down it nuclear reactor based on nothing but ideology (which basically to make CZ utterly dependent energetically on the mercy and availability of neighboors--who by the way get richer by that). Same with Poland's coal mine -- for which it has been ordered to pay milions Eur. a day just to have hospitals and essential infrastructure running. How can they decide if we (each individual country) is so free and can do what we wish. We are not in fact and thats why economic sanctions (wars) and diplomacy pressures work in general. Countries are not independent, and contrary to popular academic idea, in practice you (as a weaker country) will be pressured to the will (ideological, economic, etc) by the stronger neighbor. Sometimes these interests may align and be productive, many times they will not be. But denying this reality is wishful thinking.

by sidibe 5y ago

goatsneez 5y ago

I would say if you want to understand someone (especially in geopolitical power play) you better align your model of that entity to reflect his/her world view. That is precisely the diplomacy mistake (to ignore to discuss someone else's interests, especially since they were communicated and signaled for many years) "west" has been making in this conflict as Prof. Mearsheimer says. I do not think there are any assumptions about agency or not of other players. They have also stakes, but are not of strategic importance to the stronger guys. For instance, Austria and Germany has been aggressively pressuring Czech Rep. to close down it nuclear reactor based on nothing but ideology (which basically to make CZ utterly dependent energetically on the mercy and availability of neighboors--who by the way get richer by that). Same with Poland's coal mine -- for which it has been ordered to pay milions Eur. a day just to have hospitals and essential infrastructure running. How can they decide if we (each individual country) is so free and can do what we wish. We are not in fact and thats why economic sanctions (wars) and diplomacy pressures work in general. Countries are not independent, and contrary to popular academic idea, in practice you (as a weaker country) will be pressured to the will (ideological, economic, etc) by the stronger neighbor. Sometimes these interests may align and be productive, many times they will not be. But denying this reality is wishful thinking.