I really like this essay. It almost makes too much sense, like it is too simple an idea to have gone ignored for this long, but the premise is hard to argue wit

I really like this essay. It almost makes too much sense, like it is too simple an idea to have gone ignored for this long, but the premise is hard to argue with: you can't accurately predict events that happen very rarely (on the time scale that we have accurate measurements for) that have extreme outcomes. Also, reading this reminds me how doomed younoodle.com is.