3 ms·

The OP does link to this blogpost[0] which, while frustratingly also focuses heavily on the "worst-case" & seems to treat "winning" as "avoiding the worst-case"

The OP does link to this blogpost[0] which, while frustratingly also focuses heavily on the "worst-case" & seems to treat "winning" as "avoiding the worst-case", it does also have some numbers on decision-trees that produce highest average scores: those are linked here[1] & are much more interesting. Reading that wiki page brings up a follow-up question: Given: - the optimal starter word appears to be the quite obtuse word "SALET" - while we don't know that "SALET" won't someday be an answer, there's a common assumption among players that the answer list consists of "common" words. If I'm not mistaken this is a founded assumption What would the rankings of the subset of optimal starter words that are "common" be (i.e. would be likely to be reasonable guesses of typical players)? [0] https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordle-optimal/ https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordle-optimal/ [1] http://sonorouschocolate.com/notes/index.php?title=The_best_strategies_for_Wordle http://sonorouschocolate.com/notes/index.php?title=The_best_...

martincmartin 5y ago
TALES is almost as good as a first word, and isn't obtuse.
bryans 5y ago
It's interesting to see the averages from different decision trees and that the optimal hard mode is only 3.51 -- and that easy/hard mode are so close. It makes me wonder how much of my stats are pure luck. I'm currently sitting at exactly 3.5 after 48 hard modes (0/2/26/14/6/0) starting with SLATE, but while I feel pretty confident playing the game, I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place.
- lucideer 5y ago
  Given how close hard mode and easy mode are, and that even when calculating averages, 4, 5 & 6 are still considered "wins", I strongly suspect changing the parameters could show hard mode to be "easier" for a "<4 or bust" goal. > I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place. It's also worth noting that these models (presumably) assume an equal chance for every word in the provided dictionary, whereas - assuming the answers are "common" words - a human will likely be strongly biased toward the subset of possible answers and therefore can have much higher probabilities of success in practice than the theoretically-optimal strategies.
jibalt 5y ago
"while we don't know that "SALET" won't someday be an answer" Yes, we do ... all the answers and the day they will occur are known.
- lucideer 5y ago
  Was phrasing the statement from the perspective of a model "player", but I guess knowing whether "SALET" is in the answer list is not quite the same as knowing where each word is in the list, so you could semi-cheat and use the answer list as your definition of "common", without gaining too much knowledge.

martincmartin 5y ago

TALES is almost as good as a first word, and isn't obtuse.

bryans 5y ago

It's interesting to see the averages from different decision trees and that the optimal hard mode is only 3.51 -- and that easy/hard mode are so close. It makes me wonder how much of my stats are pure luck. I'm currently sitting at exactly 3.5 after 48 hard modes (0/2/26/14/6/0) starting with SLATE, but while I feel pretty confident playing the game, I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place.

lucideer 5y ago
Given how close hard mode and easy mode are, and that even when calculating averages, 4, 5 & 6 are still considered "wins", I strongly suspect changing the parameters could show hard mode to be "easier" for a "<4 or bust" goal. > I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place. It's also worth noting that these models (presumably) assume an equal chance for every word in the provided dictionary, whereas - assuming the answers are "common" words - a human will likely be strongly biased toward the subset of possible answers and therefore can have much higher probabilities of success in practice than the theoretically-optimal strategies.

jibalt 5y ago

"while we don't know that "SALET" won't someday be an answer" Yes, we do ... all the answers and the day they will occur are known.

lucideer 5y ago
Was phrasing the statement from the perspective of a model "player", but I guess knowing whether "SALET" is in the answer list is not quite the same as knowing where each word is in the list, so you could semi-cheat and use the answer list as your definition of "common", without gaining too much knowledge.