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> (2) What is a winning strategy I can memorize? > Q: What simple strategy guarantees a win within 6 guesses? I've seen a lot of analyses of Wordle that pose

> (2) What is a winning strategy I can memorize? > Q: What simple strategy guarantees a win within 6 guesses? I've seen a lot of analyses of Wordle that pose this question, and I feel like these are not people who play Wordle (not unlikely - these are seemingly people more interested in analysing the game from a statistical standpoint than simply playing directly). But while the answer to this question is interesting enough, it's not that interesting. People I've spoken to who play have zero interest in winning in 5 or 6 guesses - in fact most would consider a score of 6/6 a loss (or at least a relatively bad score), unless it was a particularly tricky word. > (1) If I win in two guesses, am I good or lucky? Q: What first guess maximizes the number of guaranteed wins on the second guess? Q: What first guess maximizes the number of expected wins on the second guess? > The probability of winning in two guesses is about 2%, so the answer is: mostly lucky. These - and the follow-ups I was hoping for for 3, 4 & 5 guesses respectively - are much more interesting questions. * Yes I can just clone this and edit to find these things out (& probably will later this week) but I'm just commenting on my confusion around why there's so much focus on the least interesting part of a problem.

furyofantares 5y ago
> I've seen a lot of analyses of Wordle that pose this question, and I feel like these are not people who play Wordle Interesting thought. But idunno, I am prettty into wordle, I agree with you, my goal with the daily is to get it in 3 as often as possible, but when it comes to "extracurriculars" I'm interested in all sorts of questions that are divorced with this concern. And I'm actually not that interested in deeply analyzing the part I enjoy most (getting the daily in 3).
- lucideer 5y ago
  That's certainly another possibility :) > I'm actually not that interested in deeply analyzing the part I enjoy most (getting the daily in 3). I think I'm similar; I've been using the same starter word since almost day 1, and despite having seen lots of very compelling evidence that it is suboptimal, I have not changed it :D But I'm still somehow interested in what is optimal (& I guess oddly passionate about the definition of optimality).
  - furyofantares 5y ago
    Actually yeah, even though I'm trying to get it in 3 every day, I do not optimize my starting word. In fact I get quite some pleasure out of choosing a bad starting word (like MELEE) and then going for a 3. I wouldn't mind if wordle had an option to start with a random word (and everyone who plays that way that day has that same randomized starting word.)
    - creakingstairs 5y ago
      That is a genius idea. Maybe the first row of coloured squares that you share can be a different colour scheme to show to others that you are playing that mode.
mod 5y ago
3 guesses makes me feel good (and lucky), four is what I expect for most puzzles, and 6 either makes me feel bad, or is a sequence like this: BLA*E Where I try BLADE BLAZE BLARE BLAME Those are frustrating, but not my fault (assuming I don't re-use any letters).
- flafla2 5y ago
  Well, technically you could have realized the ambiguity in this case, and guessed a word like RAZED to clear it up.
  - jimmydorry 5y ago
    Not if you are in hard mode.
    - apocolyps6 5y ago
      Do people actually use hard mode? Seems like its only "harder" in the sense that it forces you to play less intelligently.
      - hackmiester 5y ago
        This is why I turned it off. It is "hard mode" in the same way that driving a screw with a hammer is "hard mode."
      - throwawaythekey 5y ago
        I find it fun because it prompts me to find the optimal guess (given hard mode). Playing easy mode I'm much more happy to do the first word that comes to mind and sort of fits.
      - lupire 5y ago
        Hard mode emphasizes vocabulary over math.
- willis936 5y ago
lucideer 5y ago
The OP does link to this blogpost[0] which, while frustratingly also focuses heavily on the "worst-case" & seems to treat "winning" as "avoiding the worst-case", it does also have some numbers on decision-trees that produce highest average scores: those are linked here[1] & are much more interesting. Reading that wiki page brings up a follow-up question: Given: - the optimal starter word appears to be the quite obtuse word "SALET" - while we don't know that "SALET" won't someday be an answer, there's a common assumption among players that the answer list consists of "common" words. If I'm not mistaken this is a founded assumption What would the rankings of the subset of optimal starter words that are "common" be (i.e. would be likely to be reasonable guesses of typical players)? [0] https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordle-optimal/ https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordle-optimal/ [1] http://sonorouschocolate.com/notes/index.php?title=The_best_strategies_for_Wordle http://sonorouschocolate.com/notes/index.php?title=The_best_...
- martincmartin 5y ago
  TALES is almost as good as a first word, and isn't obtuse.
- bryans 5y ago
  It's interesting to see the averages from different decision trees and that the optimal hard mode is only 3.51 -- and that easy/hard mode are so close. It makes me wonder how much of my stats are pure luck. I'm currently sitting at exactly 3.5 after 48 hard modes (0/2/26/14/6/0) starting with SLATE, but while I feel pretty confident playing the game, I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place.
  - lucideer 5y ago
    Given how close hard mode and easy mode are, and that even when calculating averages, 4, 5 & 6 are still considered "wins", I strongly suspect changing the parameters could show hard mode to be "easier" for a "<4 or bust" goal. > I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place. It's also worth noting that these models (presumably) assume an equal chance for every word in the provided dictionary, whereas - assuming the answers are "common" words - a human will likely be strongly biased toward the subset of possible answers and therefore can have much higher probabilities of success in practice than the theoretically-optimal strategies.
dehrmann 5y ago
I know how to simulate the game and get a very good strategy (or see what others have done), but I use different starting word every day because it makes it more interesting.
- tmnvix 5y ago
  For the same reason, I use the previous day's solution as the starting word.
  - MengerSponge 5y ago
    Oh that's particularly brutal after days with repeated letters.
    - irishsultan 5y ago
      I'm using the same strategy and I have to say it mostly is doable. I was afraid for vivid (two repeated letters) but if I remember correctly the next day was quite doable starting from vivid.
    - noxvilleza 5y ago
      Even the worst starting word is guaranteed <= 1 average guess more than the optimal strategy though!
- lucideer 5y ago
  I wanted to do this at first, but my vocab recall is so poor (especially before morning coffee) that I found the blank slate annoying & intimidating.
timthorn 5y ago
> The probability of winning in two guesses is about 2%, so the answer is: mostly lucky That's for any given game, so presumably if your statistics over time are significantly higher than 2% then the answer is mostly good? Or perhaps that's a statistical fallacy akin to tossing a head 5 times in a row?
JohnWhigham 5y ago
Nerds will always optimize/min-max the work out of something that is supposed to be for fun, that's just a fact of life.
smoyer 5y ago
My dictionary, excluding proper names and words with punctuation, has about 4600 five-letter words. I'd add a question to your list related to how the 2315 Wordle words were chosen as an analysis of this might provide more heuristics for how to win faster.

furyofantares 5y ago

> I've seen a lot of analyses of Wordle that pose this question, and I feel like these are not people who play Wordle Interesting thought. But idunno, I am prettty into wordle, I agree with you, my goal with the daily is to get it in 3 as often as possible, but when it comes to "extracurriculars" I'm interested in all sorts of questions that are divorced with this concern. And I'm actually not that interested in deeply analyzing the part I enjoy most (getting the daily in 3).

lucideer 5y ago
That's certainly another possibility :) > I'm actually not that interested in deeply analyzing the part I enjoy most (getting the daily in 3). I think I'm similar; I've been using the same starter word since almost day 1, and despite having seen lots of very compelling evidence that it is suboptimal, I have not changed it :D But I'm still somehow interested in what is optimal (& I guess oddly passionate about the definition of optimality).
- furyofantares 5y ago
  Actually yeah, even though I'm trying to get it in 3 every day, I do not optimize my starting word. In fact I get quite some pleasure out of choosing a bad starting word (like MELEE) and then going for a 3. I wouldn't mind if wordle had an option to start with a random word (and everyone who plays that way that day has that same randomized starting word.)
  - creakingstairs 5y ago
    That is a genius idea. Maybe the first row of coloured squares that you share can be a different colour scheme to show to others that you are playing that mode.

mod 5y ago

3 guesses makes me feel good (and lucky), four is what I expect for most puzzles, and 6 either makes me feel bad, or is a sequence like this: BLA*E Where I try BLADE BLAZE BLARE BLAME Those are frustrating, but not my fault (assuming I don't re-use any letters).

flafla2 5y ago
Well, technically you could have realized the ambiguity in this case, and guessed a word like RAZED to clear it up.
- jimmydorry 5y ago
  Not if you are in hard mode.
  - apocolyps6 5y ago
    Do people actually use hard mode? Seems like its only "harder" in the sense that it forces you to play less intelligently.
    - hackmiester 5y ago
      This is why I turned it off. It is "hard mode" in the same way that driving a screw with a hammer is "hard mode."
    - throwawaythekey 5y ago
      I find it fun because it prompts me to find the optimal guess (given hard mode). Playing easy mode I'm much more happy to do the first word that comes to mind and sort of fits.
    - lupire 5y ago
      Hard mode emphasizes vocabulary over math.
willis936 5y ago

lucideer 5y ago

The OP does link to this blogpost[0] which, while frustratingly also focuses heavily on the "worst-case" & seems to treat "winning" as "avoiding the worst-case", it does also have some numbers on decision-trees that produce highest average scores: those are linked here[1] & are much more interesting. Reading that wiki page brings up a follow-up question: Given: - the optimal starter word appears to be the quite obtuse word "SALET" - while we don't know that "SALET" won't someday be an answer, there's a common assumption among players that the answer list consists of "common" words. If I'm not mistaken this is a founded assumption What would the rankings of the subset of optimal starter words that are "common" be (i.e. would be likely to be reasonable guesses of typical players)? [0] https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordle-optimal/ https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordle-optimal/ [1] http://sonorouschocolate.com/notes/index.php?title=The_best_strategies_for_Wordle http://sonorouschocolate.com/notes/index.php?title=The_best_...

martincmartin 5y ago
TALES is almost as good as a first word, and isn't obtuse.
bryans 5y ago
It's interesting to see the averages from different decision trees and that the optimal hard mode is only 3.51 -- and that easy/hard mode are so close. It makes me wonder how much of my stats are pure luck. I'm currently sitting at exactly 3.5 after 48 hard modes (0/2/26/14/6/0) starting with SLATE, but while I feel pretty confident playing the game, I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place.
- lucideer 5y ago
  Given how close hard mode and easy mode are, and that even when calculating averages, 4, 5 & 6 are still considered "wins", I strongly suspect changing the parameters could show hard mode to be "easier" for a "<4 or bust" goal. > I definitely have not used the "optimal strategy" every time, if I even knew that strategy in the first place. It's also worth noting that these models (presumably) assume an equal chance for every word in the provided dictionary, whereas - assuming the answers are "common" words - a human will likely be strongly biased toward the subset of possible answers and therefore can have much higher probabilities of success in practice than the theoretically-optimal strategies.

dehrmann 5y ago

I know how to simulate the game and get a very good strategy (or see what others have done), but I use different starting word every day because it makes it more interesting.

tmnvix 5y ago
For the same reason, I use the previous day's solution as the starting word.
- MengerSponge 5y ago
  Oh that's particularly brutal after days with repeated letters.
  - irishsultan 5y ago
    I'm using the same strategy and I have to say it mostly is doable. I was afraid for vivid (two repeated letters) but if I remember correctly the next day was quite doable starting from vivid.
  - noxvilleza 5y ago
    Even the worst starting word is guaranteed <= 1 average guess more than the optimal strategy though!
lucideer 5y ago
I wanted to do this at first, but my vocab recall is so poor (especially before morning coffee) that I found the blank slate annoying & intimidating.

timthorn 5y ago

> The probability of winning in two guesses is about 2%, so the answer is: mostly lucky That's for any given game, so presumably if your statistics over time are significantly higher than 2% then the answer is mostly good? Or perhaps that's a statistical fallacy akin to tossing a head 5 times in a row?

JohnWhigham 5y ago

Nerds will always optimize/min-max the work out of something that is supposed to be for fun, that's just a fact of life.

smoyer 5y ago

My dictionary, excluding proper names and words with punctuation, has about 4600 five-letter words. I'd add a question to your list related to how the 2315 Wordle words were chosen as an analysis of this might provide more heuristics for how to win faster.