4 ms·

>If I win in two guesses, am I good or lucky? ...The probability of winning in two guesses is about 2%, so the answer is: mostly lucky >What first guess maximi

>If I win in two guesses, am I good or lucky? ...The probability of winning in two guesses is about 2%, so the answer is: mostly lucky >What first guess maximizes the number of expected wins on the second guess? A: FILET gives you 57.5 expected wins (out of 2,315) Note that 57.5 / 2315 = 2.4%, so being "good" at the first word can only improve your chances of a two-guess win by at most ~20%. Not that much. I believe that stat illuminates a MAJOR factor for why Wordle is so popular that I haven't seen discussed yet: it's a game of (almost) pure luck, that successfully gives every man, woman and child of diverse intelligence the perception of being very smart, occasionally. It's a pat-on-the-back generator that works for everyone, not just those with high aptitude. It's a lottery ticket, if winning the lottery meant you could show off how smart you are.

ghaff 5y ago
That assumes a two word guess is the only objective. (And, yes, that's luck.) But wins in the 3, 4, 5 turn category are pretty common absent a lack of luck. That said, it's probably easier than it looks at first glance and given a decent vocabulary and some sense for word and word pair frequencies in different positions you'll probably finish at 6 turns or less unless you really go down a bad path.
- hammock 5y ago
  Same logic would apply for 3 etc turns but different numbers.
- taeric 5y ago
  Hard mode can really trap you. Got lucky and found all but one letter? Hope that you didn't use a common sequence! :)
  - function_seven 5y ago
    I really am finding new layers to this game. I play hard mode, and when entering my initial guess, I try to put common letters in uncommon positions. I'd much rather get a bunch of yellows than a bunch of greens at this stage.
    - taeric 5y ago
      Agreed on liking yellows to greens. Got stock with an E as my only green at the end of the word.... not exactly a lot of data in that one.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    I realized just last week that I had been playing in hard mode without knowing it. I had definitely had some games where I was almost had it but there were a lot of options.

ghaff 5y ago

That assumes a two word guess is the only objective. (And, yes, that's luck.) But wins in the 3, 4, 5 turn category are pretty common absent a lack of luck. That said, it's probably easier than it looks at first glance and given a decent vocabulary and some sense for word and word pair frequencies in different positions you'll probably finish at 6 turns or less unless you really go down a bad path.

hammock 5y ago
Same logic would apply for 3 etc turns but different numbers.
taeric 5y ago
Hard mode can really trap you. Got lucky and found all but one letter? Hope that you didn't use a common sequence! :)
- function_seven 5y ago
  I really am finding new layers to this game. I play hard mode, and when entering my initial guess, I try to put common letters in uncommon positions. I'd much rather get a bunch of yellows than a bunch of greens at this stage.
  - taeric 5y ago
    Agreed on liking yellows to greens. Got stock with an E as my only green at the end of the word.... not exactly a lot of data in that one.
- ghaff 5y ago
  I realized just last week that I had been playing in hard mode without knowing it. I had definitely had some games where I was almost had it but there were a lot of options.