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That's a reasonable take. But on the other hand... It took 20yr to replace the Taliban with the Taliban and that was without much external meddling. How's Sy

That's a reasonable take. But on the other hand... It took 20yr to replace the Taliban with the Taliban and that was without much external meddling. How's Syria doing? This could very much turn into "Iraq for white people" and unlike Ukraine does not have strong internal race/religion animosity (well it kind of does, but those regions left in 2014) that can be harnessed to keep the pressure off the invaders and puppet government. With the west providing the people of Ukraine with financial, material and ideological support this has the potential to become an incredibly bloody conflict. Ukraine is 40million people. If even 1/10th of that say fuck it that nation is a level of ungovernable that is hard to appropriately quantify. I don't think many people appreciate the kind of "once in generations" abyss eastern Europe is staring into. Or I could just be wrong and Ukraine could roll over. After all they were ruled by Russia historically and it hasn't been that long. Time will tell.

tguvot 5y ago
they already had a couple of revolutions when elections got rigged. now, based on what i am reading, even people that were pro-russian forever, after all the shelling hate russia with passion. it's will be much more than 1/10th edit: there is an inflow of Ukrainian male population into Ukraine. There is Foreign Legion now
dirtyid 5y ago
How Taliban's Afghanistan and Syrian clusterfuck doing is precisely the right question. UKR "winning" = potentially decades as a collapsed state, which RU would rather have than UKR embracing west / replacing RU as gas station of EU. And with respect to RU and NATO / west EU, we're early days and have not seen RU responding to EU economic warfare and direct military support. RU unable to respond in kind doesnt mean they won't do so proportionally in other realms like cyber that makes EU lose proportionally less than RU but in aggregate more. Things can get a lot uglier for everyone now that bottom is out, I think we're on verge of entering territory of total non-kinetic warfare.

tguvot 5y ago

they already had a couple of revolutions when elections got rigged. now, based on what i am reading, even people that were pro-russian forever, after all the shelling hate russia with passion. it's will be much more than 1/10th edit: there is an inflow of Ukrainian male population into Ukraine. There is Foreign Legion now

dirtyid 5y ago

How Taliban's Afghanistan and Syrian clusterfuck doing is precisely the right question. UKR "winning" = potentially decades as a collapsed state, which RU would rather have than UKR embracing west / replacing RU as gas station of EU. And with respect to RU and NATO / west EU, we're early days and have not seen RU responding to EU economic warfare and direct military support. RU unable to respond in kind doesnt mean they won't do so proportionally in other realms like cyber that makes EU lose proportionally less than RU but in aggregate more. Things can get a lot uglier for everyone now that bottom is out, I think we're on verge of entering territory of total non-kinetic warfare.