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>given hope to other regions and countries that may come under threat in the future. To be determined. I surmise Ukraine will go the way of HK/Belarus and demo

>given hope to other regions and countries that may come under threat in the future. To be determined. I surmise Ukraine will go the way of HK/Belarus and demonstrate that shitpost supremacy is not a counter to disproportionate military force. That getting drunk on propaganda manufactured and reinforced by liberal western media is ultimately going to trigger harsher reprisals and bloodier escalations. The alternative to Putin's quick "special operations" / decapitation strike is UKR cities getting shelled to rubble that we witness now. PRC will learn not to half measure in the name of cross strait "brotherhood", strategy can change but enduring geopolitical interests do not. We're now setup for an even bloodier resumption of Chinese civil war, and TWers will see the cost of porcupine strategy and prolonged insurgency and connect the dots of how much more hopeless doing so on an isolated island will be. >What happens when Europe faced with the threat of a lack of energy going into next winter? What's the sociopolitical aftermath of EU embracing migrants? People are fickle once policy touch their lives, it's much easier to turn on the gas spigot again, waive away sanctions, reduced promised military expenditures than to kick out already settled migrants. There's also Trump 2024.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
That's a reasonable take. But on the other hand... It took 20yr to replace the Taliban with the Taliban and that was without much external meddling. How's Syria doing? This could very much turn into "Iraq for white people" and unlike Ukraine does not have strong internal race/religion animosity (well it kind of does, but those regions left in 2014) that can be harnessed to keep the pressure off the invaders and puppet government. With the west providing the people of Ukraine with financial, material and ideological support this has the potential to become an incredibly bloody conflict. Ukraine is 40million people. If even 1/10th of that say fuck it that nation is a level of ungovernable that is hard to appropriately quantify. I don't think many people appreciate the kind of "once in generations" abyss eastern Europe is staring into. Or I could just be wrong and Ukraine could roll over. After all they were ruled by Russia historically and it hasn't been that long. Time will tell.
- tguvot 5y ago
  they already had a couple of revolutions when elections got rigged. now, based on what i am reading, even people that were pro-russian forever, after all the shelling hate russia with passion. it's will be much more than 1/10th edit: there is an inflow of Ukrainian male population into Ukraine. There is Foreign Legion now
- dirtyid 5y ago
  How Taliban's Afghanistan and Syrian clusterfuck doing is precisely the right question. UKR "winning" = potentially decades as a collapsed state, which RU would rather have than UKR embracing west / replacing RU as gas station of EU. And with respect to RU and NATO / west EU, we're early days and have not seen RU responding to EU economic warfare and direct military support. RU unable to respond in kind doesnt mean they won't do so proportionally in other realms like cyber that makes EU lose proportionally less than RU but in aggregate more. Things can get a lot uglier for everyone now that bottom is out, I think we're on verge of entering territory of total non-kinetic warfare.
yladiz 5y ago
> I surmise Ukraine will go the way of HK/Belarus and demonstrate that shitpost supremacy is not a counter to disproportionate military force. What does this even mean? You also have no idea what you're talking about, because HK was part of China (just a "special administrative region"), and Belarus isn't democratic and wasn't invaded by another country to get taken over. The situation in Ukraine is dramatically different. You're talking like Ukraine has lost the war and Taiwan is next, but, besides that you're being hyperbolic and, again have no idea what you're talking about, you're disregarding the reality that Russia cannot sustain this war either economically or by force in Ukraine (they may be able to take control of the country but won't be able to occupy it forever, there is way too much resistance) and that Taiwan will likely have more direct military support.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  It means there is IMO collective delusion on UKR chances of "winning" due to manufactured misinfo landscape in western filter bubbles. By winning I define as UKR remaining a viable state with semblance of domestic serenity in face of RU pursing long broadcasted security interests. RU may not achieve it's OG strategic goals but it can ensure UKR regress and stay a collapsed buffer state with relatively minimal intervenion indefinitely. Which is still better than West leaning UKR long term. Ditto with TW who has UKR tier of military support on paper, i.e. help country defend itself, except it's significant easier for PRC to turn TW info a isolated failed state if the geopolitical calculus neccessitates it. The reality is it costs a lot to integrate these regions RU/PRC but little to spoil them. UKR lost the war the same way Afghanistan did, it won't be a normal country for generations.
  - yladiz 5y ago
    You're still stating that Ukraine has lost the war and it's 1. currently not true, and 2. not a forgone conclusion. Stop pretending that it is.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

That's a reasonable take. But on the other hand... It took 20yr to replace the Taliban with the Taliban and that was without much external meddling. How's Syria doing? This could very much turn into "Iraq for white people" and unlike Ukraine does not have strong internal race/religion animosity (well it kind of does, but those regions left in 2014) that can be harnessed to keep the pressure off the invaders and puppet government. With the west providing the people of Ukraine with financial, material and ideological support this has the potential to become an incredibly bloody conflict. Ukraine is 40million people. If even 1/10th of that say fuck it that nation is a level of ungovernable that is hard to appropriately quantify. I don't think many people appreciate the kind of "once in generations" abyss eastern Europe is staring into. Or I could just be wrong and Ukraine could roll over. After all they were ruled by Russia historically and it hasn't been that long. Time will tell.

tguvot 5y ago
they already had a couple of revolutions when elections got rigged. now, based on what i am reading, even people that were pro-russian forever, after all the shelling hate russia with passion. it's will be much more than 1/10th edit: there is an inflow of Ukrainian male population into Ukraine. There is Foreign Legion now
dirtyid 5y ago
How Taliban's Afghanistan and Syrian clusterfuck doing is precisely the right question. UKR "winning" = potentially decades as a collapsed state, which RU would rather have than UKR embracing west / replacing RU as gas station of EU. And with respect to RU and NATO / west EU, we're early days and have not seen RU responding to EU economic warfare and direct military support. RU unable to respond in kind doesnt mean they won't do so proportionally in other realms like cyber that makes EU lose proportionally less than RU but in aggregate more. Things can get a lot uglier for everyone now that bottom is out, I think we're on verge of entering territory of total non-kinetic warfare.

yladiz 5y ago

> I surmise Ukraine will go the way of HK/Belarus and demonstrate that shitpost supremacy is not a counter to disproportionate military force. What does this even mean? You also have no idea what you're talking about, because HK was part of China (just a "special administrative region"), and Belarus isn't democratic and wasn't invaded by another country to get taken over. The situation in Ukraine is dramatically different. You're talking like Ukraine has lost the war and Taiwan is next, but, besides that you're being hyperbolic and, again have no idea what you're talking about, you're disregarding the reality that Russia cannot sustain this war either economically or by force in Ukraine (they may be able to take control of the country but won't be able to occupy it forever, there is way too much resistance) and that Taiwan will likely have more direct military support.

dirtyid 5y ago
It means there is IMO collective delusion on UKR chances of "winning" due to manufactured misinfo landscape in western filter bubbles. By winning I define as UKR remaining a viable state with semblance of domestic serenity in face of RU pursing long broadcasted security interests. RU may not achieve it's OG strategic goals but it can ensure UKR regress and stay a collapsed buffer state with relatively minimal intervenion indefinitely. Which is still better than West leaning UKR long term. Ditto with TW who has UKR tier of military support on paper, i.e. help country defend itself, except it's significant easier for PRC to turn TW info a isolated failed state if the geopolitical calculus neccessitates it. The reality is it costs a lot to integrate these regions RU/PRC but little to spoil them. UKR lost the war the same way Afghanistan did, it won't be a normal country for generations.
- yladiz 5y ago
  You're still stating that Ukraine has lost the war and it's 1. currently not true, and 2. not a forgone conclusion. Stop pretending that it is.