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The diplomatic channels are still open. Let's see if a miracle comes off it. I'm optimistic since there's not much left for Putin to prove. Europe is terrified

The diplomatic channels are still open. Let's see if a miracle comes off it. I'm optimistic since there's not much left for Putin to prove. Europe is terrified and has wisely chosen to not engage with the Russian military. The absolute worst would be the continued escalation of economy warfare forcing China's hand in the conflict.

layer8 5y ago
Putin wants Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine (Great Russia, White Russia, and Little Russia) unified, to restore the Russian empire and to reunify the Russian people. This is not about proving something, it’s to restore historic justice and to undo the humiliation and tragedy of Russia’s breakup over 30 years ago, in the eyes of Putin. His legacy depends on it, and also he believes that if it doesn’t happen soon, then it will become impossible, because of the cultural contagion of the West. That possibility is something Putin can’t stomach, and preventing it is worth a lot of Russian hardship to him. EDIT: Just to be clear, I believe Putin is delusional. Just trying to explain what appears to be his world view, based on his speeches and published articles.
- throwaway_4ever 5y ago
  No, comrade, it is NATO's fault. How dare they prevent the other Eastern European countries from being invaded.
  - throwaway5848 5y ago
    Their point is that the invation is for a reason. Whether you agree or not, a lame snarky sacarastic comment doesn't change that.
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      Hey, it was just a funny take on the parent "from Putin's point of view". I think the guidelines about snark and sarcasm are about what you write in relation to other posters here, not Putin.
      - throwaway5848 5y ago
        Oh I know, but I wasn't talking about the guidelines, just pointing out that a funny take doesn't make something less true, and undermines an important point. Also, I think snark and sarcasm should be allowed even towards other posters. It's healthier.
    - wewtyflakes 5y ago
      Yes, and it seems to be "ego", which seems like a poor justification.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - layer8 5y ago
        It’s more about identity than about ego, I’d say. If Russia isn’t Russia anymore, if a large part (or, worse, all) of it gets westernized, if the Russian culture seemingly erodes, Putin’s life will turn out to have been meaningless. His self-worth is irreversibly tied to it. That’s why authoritarian leaders are generally unable to say “oh, I guess I was wrong after all”.
        geoka9 5y ago
        > If Russia isn’t Russia anymore, if a large part (or, worse, all) of it gets westernized, if the Russian culture seemingly erodes What do you mean? You should have seen the surge of the Ukrainian culture in Ukraine after it westernized. After all, it's not the west that suppresses cultures in the region. If anything, it is the Russian regime.
        layer8 5y ago
        From his article https://web.archive.org/web/20220227090945/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 https://web.archive.org/web/20220227090945/http://en.kremlin...: “The localization policy undoubtedly played a major role in the development and consolidation of the Ukrainian culture, language and identity. At the same time, under the guise of combating the so-called Russian great-power chauvinism, Ukrainization was often imposed on those who did not see themselves as Ukrainians. This Soviet national policy secured at the state level the provision on three separate Slavic peoples: Russian, Ukrainian and Belorussian, instead of the large Russian nation, a triune people comprising Velikorussians, Malorussians and Belorussians.” So he doesn’t like the alleged “Ukrainization”, and certainly not an additional westernization (you know, with gay people and such).
- rchaud 5y ago
  Is it really just those 3 that 2022 Putin wants back? The USSR had a number of republics bordering China that are now independent. Are those in his crosshairs as well?
  - layer8 5y ago
    I don’t think so, at least not necessarily, because they are not part of Russia’s historical core. He surely would like to have them back in Russia’s sphere of influence, but I don’t think they are essential to restoring Russia’s greatness. Ukraine is in another category.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > I don’t think so, at least not necessarily, because they are not part of Russia’s historical core. Putin referred, in his war announcement speech, to the USSR as a historical Russia, and blamed it's leaders for allowing it to fall apart, implying that reversing that was among the goals of his efforts; his idea of the “Russian core” appears to be the union of former Soviet and Russian Imperial territory (possibly not including the North American holdings, but who really knows.)
      - layer8 5y ago
        Putin is referring a lot to pre-Soviet Russia in his elaborations. My impression is that his aspirations are more about tsarian Russia than about Soviet Russia.
- wewtyflakes 5y ago
  Why not leave it to Ukrainians to decide if they want to be reunited or not? Why does Putin believe it is right for him to make that choice for them? The fact that his army is actively bombing them makes this argument ridiculous.
  - layer8 5y ago
    Presumably it would be an impossible cognitive dissonance for him to acknowledge (to himself) that actually it would be justified for Ukrainians to turn their back from Russia and join the West. Those people must be misguided/contaminated or defectors, and surely those who can’t be turned back can only be a small minority. Beliefs like that are not standalone, they fit into a belief system. You can’t overturn them unless you overturn the whole belief system. Seemingly absurd beliefs can come about by the psychological necessity of keeping the belief system consistent. Putin’s belief system probably was formed during his KGB time in the 70s and 80s, and has continued to develop and has become stronger and harder to change since then. He’ll be 70 in October, unlikely to fundamentally change his mind at that age.
    - tguvot 5y ago
      Not KGB. This dude and his books https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin Also run through this article and try to correlate it with todays reality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
      - CRConrad 5y ago
        Not "not KGB", I think -- my guess would be that dude and his books and the KGB. From what I understand of their views, Dugin's fit in pretty well with the KGB's.
- morpheos137 5y ago
  Wouldn't it be bizarre if Wales, England and Scotland formed a United Kingdom?
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    The Scots sure seem to be beginning to think so.
- geoka9 5y ago
  > Putin wants Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine That's not all he wants. In the map[0] that Lukashenko accidentally(?) leaked today, Moldova is also marked for invasion. [0] https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1573902/Lukashenko-belarus-attack-map-russia-ukraine-war-latest-vn https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1573902/Lukashenko-bela...
  - layer8 5y ago
    Right, at least Transnistria, which is already separatist (pro-Russian) and has also a complicated history.

layer8 5y ago

Putin wants Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine (Great Russia, White Russia, and Little Russia) unified, to restore the Russian empire and to reunify the Russian people. This is not about proving something, it’s to restore historic justice and to undo the humiliation and tragedy of Russia’s breakup over 30 years ago, in the eyes of Putin. His legacy depends on it, and also he believes that if it doesn’t happen soon, then it will become impossible, because of the cultural contagion of the West. That possibility is something Putin can’t stomach, and preventing it is worth a lot of Russian hardship to him. EDIT: Just to be clear, I believe Putin is delusional. Just trying to explain what appears to be his world view, based on his speeches and published articles.

throwaway_4ever 5y ago
No, comrade, it is NATO's fault. How dare they prevent the other Eastern European countries from being invaded.
- throwaway5848 5y ago
  Their point is that the invation is for a reason. Whether you agree or not, a lame snarky sacarastic comment doesn't change that.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    Hey, it was just a funny take on the parent "from Putin's point of view". I think the guidelines about snark and sarcasm are about what you write in relation to other posters here, not Putin.
    - throwaway5848 5y ago
      Oh I know, but I wasn't talking about the guidelines, just pointing out that a funny take doesn't make something less true, and undermines an important point. Also, I think snark and sarcasm should be allowed even towards other posters. It's healthier.
  - wewtyflakes 5y ago
    Yes, and it seems to be "ego", which seems like a poor justification.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - layer8 5y ago
      It’s more about identity than about ego, I’d say. If Russia isn’t Russia anymore, if a large part (or, worse, all) of it gets westernized, if the Russian culture seemingly erodes, Putin’s life will turn out to have been meaningless. His self-worth is irreversibly tied to it. That’s why authoritarian leaders are generally unable to say “oh, I guess I was wrong after all”.
      - geoka9 5y ago
        > If Russia isn’t Russia anymore, if a large part (or, worse, all) of it gets westernized, if the Russian culture seemingly erodes What do you mean? You should have seen the surge of the Ukrainian culture in Ukraine after it westernized. After all, it's not the west that suppresses cultures in the region. If anything, it is the Russian regime.
        layer8 5y ago
        From his article https://web.archive.org/web/20220227090945/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 https://web.archive.org/web/20220227090945/http://en.kremlin...: “The localization policy undoubtedly played a major role in the development and consolidation of the Ukrainian culture, language and identity. At the same time, under the guise of combating the so-called Russian great-power chauvinism, Ukrainization was often imposed on those who did not see themselves as Ukrainians. This Soviet national policy secured at the state level the provision on three separate Slavic peoples: Russian, Ukrainian and Belorussian, instead of the large Russian nation, a triune people comprising Velikorussians, Malorussians and Belorussians.” So he doesn’t like the alleged “Ukrainization”, and certainly not an additional westernization (you know, with gay people and such).
rchaud 5y ago
Is it really just those 3 that 2022 Putin wants back? The USSR had a number of republics bordering China that are now independent. Are those in his crosshairs as well?
- layer8 5y ago
  I don’t think so, at least not necessarily, because they are not part of Russia’s historical core. He surely would like to have them back in Russia’s sphere of influence, but I don’t think they are essential to restoring Russia’s greatness. Ukraine is in another category.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > I don’t think so, at least not necessarily, because they are not part of Russia’s historical core. Putin referred, in his war announcement speech, to the USSR as a historical Russia, and blamed it's leaders for allowing it to fall apart, implying that reversing that was among the goals of his efforts; his idea of the “Russian core” appears to be the union of former Soviet and Russian Imperial territory (possibly not including the North American holdings, but who really knows.)
    - layer8 5y ago
      Putin is referring a lot to pre-Soviet Russia in his elaborations. My impression is that his aspirations are more about tsarian Russia than about Soviet Russia.
wewtyflakes 5y ago
Why not leave it to Ukrainians to decide if they want to be reunited or not? Why does Putin believe it is right for him to make that choice for them? The fact that his army is actively bombing them makes this argument ridiculous.
- layer8 5y ago
  Presumably it would be an impossible cognitive dissonance for him to acknowledge (to himself) that actually it would be justified for Ukrainians to turn their back from Russia and join the West. Those people must be misguided/contaminated or defectors, and surely those who can’t be turned back can only be a small minority. Beliefs like that are not standalone, they fit into a belief system. You can’t overturn them unless you overturn the whole belief system. Seemingly absurd beliefs can come about by the psychological necessity of keeping the belief system consistent. Putin’s belief system probably was formed during his KGB time in the 70s and 80s, and has continued to develop and has become stronger and harder to change since then. He’ll be 70 in October, unlikely to fundamentally change his mind at that age.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    Not KGB. This dude and his books https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin Also run through this article and try to correlate it with todays reality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      Not "not KGB", I think -- my guess would be that dude and his books and the KGB. From what I understand of their views, Dugin's fit in pretty well with the KGB's.
morpheos137 5y ago
Wouldn't it be bizarre if Wales, England and Scotland formed a United Kingdom?
- CRConrad 5y ago
  The Scots sure seem to be beginning to think so.
geoka9 5y ago
> Putin wants Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine That's not all he wants. In the map[0] that Lukashenko accidentally(?) leaked today, Moldova is also marked for invasion. [0] https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1573902/Lukashenko-belarus-attack-map-russia-ukraine-war-latest-vn https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1573902/Lukashenko-bela...
- layer8 5y ago
  Right, at least Transnistria, which is already separatist (pro-Russian) and has also a complicated history.