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I think that if Russia pulls back its troops Ukraine has a bright future. Even if Crimea and the other two regions are lost it will receive more investment than

I think that if Russia pulls back its troops Ukraine has a bright future. Even if Crimea and the other two regions are lost it will receive more investment than it would have received otherwise. Both the EU and the US want Ukraine to become a succesful EU country. The Ukrainian people also seem to have a strong will to build/rebuild and defend Ukraine so they are reliable partners unlike the cases we've seen in other countries.

tromp 5y ago
Russia pulling back is more unimaginable now than a Russian invasion was in January.
- ignoramous 5y ago
  How long can Russia hold such a massive country surrounded by NATO allies? I don't think there's a single scenario where Russia wins.
- nine_k 5y ago
  With a change of the regime in Kremlin, it's quite imaginable. I suppose that a lot of the Russian elites, locked out of their wealth and prospects, would be more than happy to see and even effect a serious change of the leadership. I hope they have a fair chance. A huge lot of non-elites would support that, too.
- ivan_gammel 5y ago
  They cannot hold this territory. They will have to.
  - baq 5y ago
    They don’t. They’ll happily raze everything just so Ukrainians can’t defend. Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild.
    - danuker 5y ago
      > Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild. Ukraine agreeing to the loan would mean agreeing to debt slavery.
      - baq 5y ago
        Precisely the point.
    - arbitrary_name 5y ago
      You don't think the EU would be motivated to lend at competitive rates in this scenario? If not, i would love to understand your logic.
      - refurb 5y ago
        Lend to a Russia-occupied Ukraine?
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  The US couldn't manage to wipe out the Taliban in Afghanistan, nor prop up its replacement for more than a couple of weeks after two decades of preparation and $2.3 trillion in investment. Ukraine's insurgency would be supplied by allies with deep pockets and modern tech; Russia's occupation would be funded by a sanctioned Russia and the same army that's already struggling to meet their objectives in the early stages. Russia leaves Ukraine in defeat in at some point in the future. The question is largely how many innocent dead are left in the wake.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    my pet theory that they can't leave ukraine right now because they are stuck. totally messsed up logistics. this giant convoy could run out of supplies/fuel. they maybe literally can't drive out. ukranian drones started to blow up trains with fuel inside russia yesterday and belorusian partisans started to screw with train system in belorussia (for real, they demolished a bunch of control equipment centers. trains can't go anywhere). their communication is shit (https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529?s=21 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529?s=...) and some of them simply can't reach command center to get orders
- bitL 5y ago
  I am worried they might create an uninhabitable belt on the western borders of Western Ukraine by nuking it with 10-100kT tactical nukes as they don't really care about people of Lviv and around and that would solve also their Polish "friendship" problem. A similar strategy was planned by French in the case of a war with USSR, nuking Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, so that the USSR army couldn't pass to Western Europe. I think all options are on the table, unfortunately.
nevermindiguess 5y ago
What makes you think that the US and EU have any real interest to see Ukraine succeed? Besides believing their platitudes and propaganda, I mean.
- baq 5y ago
  Thinking like a trader: wheat, corn, iron, coal. Thinking like a person: no more wars in Europe.

tromp 5y ago

Russia pulling back is more unimaginable now than a Russian invasion was in January.

ignoramous 5y ago
How long can Russia hold such a massive country surrounded by NATO allies? I don't think there's a single scenario where Russia wins.
nine_k 5y ago
With a change of the regime in Kremlin, it's quite imaginable. I suppose that a lot of the Russian elites, locked out of their wealth and prospects, would be more than happy to see and even effect a serious change of the leadership. I hope they have a fair chance. A huge lot of non-elites would support that, too.
ivan_gammel 5y ago
They cannot hold this territory. They will have to.
- baq 5y ago
  They don’t. They’ll happily raze everything just so Ukrainians can’t defend. Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild.
  - danuker 5y ago
    > Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild. Ukraine agreeing to the loan would mean agreeing to debt slavery.
    - baq 5y ago
      Precisely the point.
  - arbitrary_name 5y ago
    You don't think the EU would be motivated to lend at competitive rates in this scenario? If not, i would love to understand your logic.
    - refurb 5y ago
      Lend to a Russia-occupied Ukraine?
ceejayoz 5y ago
The US couldn't manage to wipe out the Taliban in Afghanistan, nor prop up its replacement for more than a couple of weeks after two decades of preparation and $2.3 trillion in investment. Ukraine's insurgency would be supplied by allies with deep pockets and modern tech; Russia's occupation would be funded by a sanctioned Russia and the same army that's already struggling to meet their objectives in the early stages. Russia leaves Ukraine in defeat in at some point in the future. The question is largely how many innocent dead are left in the wake.
- tguvot 5y ago
  my pet theory that they can't leave ukraine right now because they are stuck. totally messsed up logistics. this giant convoy could run out of supplies/fuel. they maybe literally can't drive out. ukranian drones started to blow up trains with fuel inside russia yesterday and belorusian partisans started to screw with train system in belorussia (for real, they demolished a bunch of control equipment centers. trains can't go anywhere). their communication is shit (https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529?s=21 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529?s=...) and some of them simply can't reach command center to get orders
bitL 5y ago
I am worried they might create an uninhabitable belt on the western borders of Western Ukraine by nuking it with 10-100kT tactical nukes as they don't really care about people of Lviv and around and that would solve also their Polish "friendship" problem. A similar strategy was planned by French in the case of a war with USSR, nuking Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, so that the USSR army couldn't pass to Western Europe. I think all options are on the table, unfortunately.

nevermindiguess 5y ago

What makes you think that the US and EU have any real interest to see Ukraine succeed? Besides believing their platitudes and propaganda, I mean.

baq 5y ago
Thinking like a trader: wheat, corn, iron, coal. Thinking like a person: no more wars in Europe.