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Even if the war ended right now, Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of refugees to move and shelter, huge amounts of destroyed infrastructure to repair and work
by hraedon 5y ago
Even if the war ended right now, Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of refugees to move and shelter, huge amounts of destroyed infrastructure to repair and work around, most of their army expended, and a lot of civilian losses. They also won't get Crimea back, and they probably can't hold onto the separatist regions either.
Provided that the world continues to rally around Ukraine and gets critical supplies to the population centers they may avoid grievous additional losses, but Ukraine is unavoidably much worse off than it was pre-invasion.
- bnt 5y agoIf history taught me anything, a retreating army will destroy everything around them just to damage their enemy and make their life hell. Imagine if Russian troops just flood Ukraine with land mines, it would take decades to make the country safe again. It’s been 30 years and Croatia is still riddled with land mines.
- basementcat 5y agoTo an extent, this has already happened. https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/landmines-still-pose-threat-two-million-ukrainians-enruuk https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/landmines-still-pose-th...
- theplumber 5y agoI think that if Russia pulls back its troops Ukraine has a bright future. Even if Crimea and the other two regions are lost it will receive more investment than it would have received otherwise. Both the EU and the US want Ukraine to become a succesful EU country. The Ukrainian people also seem to have a strong will to build/rebuild and defend Ukraine so they are reliable partners unlike the cases we've seen in other countries.
- tromp 5y agoRussia pulling back is more unimaginable now than a Russian invasion was in January.
- ignoramous 5y agoHow long can Russia hold such a massive country surrounded by NATO allies? I don't think there's a single scenario where Russia wins.
- nine_k 5y agoWith a change of the regime in Kremlin, it's quite imaginable. I suppose that a lot of the Russian elites, locked out of their wealth and prospects, would be more than happy to see and even effect a serious change of the leadership. I hope they have a fair chance. A huge lot of non-elites would support that, too.
- ivan_gammel 5y agoThey cannot hold this territory. They will have to.
- baq 5y agoThey don’t. They’ll happily raze everything just so Ukrainians can’t defend. Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild.
- danuker 5y ago> Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild. Ukraine agreeing to the loan would mean agreeing to debt slavery.
- baq 5y agoPrecisely the point.
- arbitrary_name 5y agoYou don't think the EU would be motivated to lend at competitive rates in this scenario? If not, i would love to understand your logic.
- nevermindiguess 5y agoWhat makes you think that the US and EU have any real interest to see Ukraine succeed? Besides believing their platitudes and propaganda, I mean.
- baq 5y agoThinking like a trader: wheat, corn, iron, coal. Thinking like a person: no more wars in Europe.
- jstgord 5y agoThe wider West is only too happy to pay the price of accommodating refugees and reducing fossil fuel dependency .. and may even be happy to risk all out nuclear war to defend our "way of life" and liberal freedoms. We now have the perfect excuse to unleash all the decades long pent up hate of Putins regime. Ursula Von de Leyen seemed to capture the zeitgeist when she slipped up and said "Ukraine is part of us" or words to that effect. Attack on Ukraine is felt as an attack on the West .. even on the other side of the world.