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How is that not escalation that could lead to MAD?

by bavell 5y ago

axiosgunnar 5y ago
My hope is that oligarchs would rather try to suicide Putin than have ten yachts but nowhere to go to because it‘s nuclear winter everywhere.
JacobThreeThree 5y ago
Armchair generals are a dime a dozen on social media. Analysts from all over the spectrum have been warning about the Ukraine red line for decades. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html
- baq 5y ago
  These people were right, but the alternatives they propose do not sound realistic. They are aimed at rational actors. The fact is, people living in those countries do not want to be Russia again and a civil war was always the only way this could end, NATO application or not. See Chechnya or Georgia.
- dghlsakjg 5y ago
  This is very interesting. It’s worth pointing out that Ukraine never actually did join NATO (and arguably was a long way from it) and war was still the outcome. The right of Ukrainians to self determine their country’s future shouldn’t hinge on the whims of Putin or Russia in general. Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality Aren't they usually? That's how one knows that it's a moral position.
oh_sigh 5y ago
It's not escalation because so far, the sanctions haven't had an effect on the ground in the Ukraine. If Putin pulls out of the Ukraine and the world keeps ratcheting up sanctions, then that would be escalation. How is not applying more sanctions until they are effective anything less than appeasement? Which does not have a great historical record...
chasd00 5y ago
I believe it can seriously get out of control. With warfare you can take your finger off the trigger and it stops but with an economy things can get wildly out of control. I feel like Putin will launch nukes before giving up his regime and if his economy becomes an existential threat then you can connect the dots.
- dghlsakjg 5y ago
  You think it’s easier to undo the effects of total war than it is to undo the effects of sanctions? Between a shooting war and an economic war I suspect that the former is far more likely to get out of control.
dghlsakjg 5y ago
Any action or reaction (including no reaction) could lead to MAD depending on how you see it. Russia has seen fit to escalate significantly despite basically no change in international posture towards Russia since 2014. Economic actions can be reversed much more easily than military action. Sanctions and frozen accounts have an undo button. Dead people and destroyed cities cannot be undone. I see economic action as the one most likely to have immediate effects internal to Russia that would undermine support for the war rather than bolster it.
jstgord 5y ago
Surprisingly, I think the West _is_ actually willing to risk nuclear war over this. I would not be surprised if EU offers interim membership to Ukraine, and then offers air support / no fly zone - calling Putins bluff and widening the conflict. I think Europe _should_ regard war on Ukraine as a declaration of war on Europe, and the rest of the west _should_ regard war on EU as war on all Western countries. One reason for this is that if the West does not retaliate towards this aggression, then others will surely follow - perhaps Russia decides Lithuania is part of Russia after all, or Chinese leadership is emboldened to 'take back' Taiwan ? Even if Russia withdraws tomorrow, can the West trust a madman with nuclear weapons ? I think the West is at war with Russia today, even if we haven't admitted it to ourselves yet.

How is that not escalation that could lead to MAD?

by bavell 5y ago

How is that not escalation that could lead to MAD?

My hope is that oligarchs would rather try to suicide Putin than have ten yachts but nowhere to go to because it‘s nuclear winter everywhere.

JacobThreeThree 5y ago

Armchair generals are a dime a dozen on social media. Analysts from all over the spectrum have been warning about the Ukraine red line for decades. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498491107902062592.html

baq 5y ago
These people were right, but the alternatives they propose do not sound realistic. They are aimed at rational actors. The fact is, people living in those countries do not want to be Russia again and a civil war was always the only way this could end, NATO application or not. See Chechnya or Georgia.
dghlsakjg 5y ago
This is very interesting. It’s worth pointing out that Ukraine never actually did join NATO (and arguably was a long way from it) and war was still the outcome. The right of Ukrainians to self determine their country’s future shouldn’t hinge on the whims of Putin or Russia in general. Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > Yes, I know that is a moral position at odds with politics and reality Aren't they usually? That's how one knows that it's a moral position.

oh_sigh 5y ago

It's not escalation because so far, the sanctions haven't had an effect on the ground in the Ukraine. If Putin pulls out of the Ukraine and the world keeps ratcheting up sanctions, then that would be escalation. How is not applying more sanctions until they are effective anything less than appeasement? Which does not have a great historical record...

chasd00 5y ago

I believe it can seriously get out of control. With warfare you can take your finger off the trigger and it stops but with an economy things can get wildly out of control. I feel like Putin will launch nukes before giving up his regime and if his economy becomes an existential threat then you can connect the dots.

dghlsakjg 5y ago
You think it’s easier to undo the effects of total war than it is to undo the effects of sanctions? Between a shooting war and an economic war I suspect that the former is far more likely to get out of control.

dghlsakjg 5y ago

Any action or reaction (including no reaction) could lead to MAD depending on how you see it. Russia has seen fit to escalate significantly despite basically no change in international posture towards Russia since 2014. Economic actions can be reversed much more easily than military action. Sanctions and frozen accounts have an undo button. Dead people and destroyed cities cannot be undone. I see economic action as the one most likely to have immediate effects internal to Russia that would undermine support for the war rather than bolster it.

jstgord 5y ago

Surprisingly, I think the West _is_ actually willing to risk nuclear war over this. I would not be surprised if EU offers interim membership to Ukraine, and then offers air support / no fly zone - calling Putins bluff and widening the conflict. I think Europe _should_ regard war on Ukraine as a declaration of war on Europe, and the rest of the west _should_ regard war on EU as war on all Western countries. One reason for this is that if the West does not retaliate towards this aggression, then others will surely follow - perhaps Russia decides Lithuania is part of Russia after all, or Chinese leadership is emboldened to 'take back' Taiwan ? Even if Russia withdraws tomorrow, can the West trust a madman with nuclear weapons ? I think the West is at war with Russia today, even if we haven't admitted it to ourselves yet.