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Are you aware of the concept of fog of war? We don't have any reasonable visibility into their operations. We have a scattered mix of social media reports that

Are you aware of the concept of fog of war? We don't have any reasonable visibility into their operations. We have a scattered mix of social media reports that are just as reliable as the reports of Chinese people falling flat on their face on the street after Covid broke out in Wuhan. You have a bag of misinformation. That's all.

ajuc 5y ago
https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 There's a lot of recorded communication.
- throwawayay02 5y ago
  How is that a reliable source at all, it's just a piece of text backed by a company that wants to sell military communication equipment.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - megous 5y ago
    Maybe you missed the actual recordings...
ceejayoz 5y ago
> just as reliable as the reports of Chinese people falling flat on their face on the street after Covid broke out in Wuhan “Reliable enough for me to stock up successfully weeks before lockdown”, you mean?
namlem 5y ago
Russian troops have resorted to using unencrypted comms because the encrypted ones were too unreliable, so we actually do have some visibility now.
oneplane 5y ago
We have SDR and the ability to actively tap into their communication, while at the same time not seeing digital communication. This leads to two options: 1. They don't have any communications at all and the analog we capture is 'fake' 2. They are using the analog unencrypted channels we can all listen to In fantasyland there is a third option: they have wireless communication that isn't detectable at all and doesn't use devices we can take photos of.
- gpderetta 5y ago
  I know nothing of this stuff but potentially: - Extreme wide spectrum frequency hopping. Hard to distinguish from the noise floor. - Steganographic encrypted channel over fake unencrypted channel. If course when in doubt, assuming stupidity is the safe bet.
  - oneplane 5y ago
    While I haven't dug deep in to the black arts that is RF and MW, it would indeed hide it better (the hopping), but because the noise floor would have 'more energy' during an active transmitter they would either always have to be transmitting or be so close to each other that they can keep the energy low. I think the analysis appliances are capable of finding hopping transmissions, even in the lower range (still expensive) spectrum analysers. It does of course depend on how fast they can scan the whole range and how wide the range is. But Hanlon's razor applies, and indeed, it is more likely incompetence.
- chrisco255 5y ago
  The reports of disarray from Russia have absolutely nothing to do with SDR comms or top secret military interceptions from the Pentagon. They're all based on social media videos that are mixing old events with current events, and some outright fabrications such as the Ghost of Kiev that a sitting U.S. congressperson fell for. Instead we have a clown show media that has already spent the last decade or two, disgracing itself repeatedly, from Iraq to Afghanistan to Syria to Libya to China to Russia unable to make any trustworthy context of current events. Even if our own military was making this claim, that is not automatically trustworthy either. It's likely propaganda, just as the WMDs were. You really do not know. So when you hear reports of a feckless Russian military completely unable to tell which way is North or unable to drop bombs without Google Maps access, and your first response is not skepticism, you aren't paying attention. Meanwhile, even if you had direct feeds of their comms, do you know which comms are headfakes and which ones are real? Don't be foolish. Russia is one of the most successful nations in military history. We probably would not have won World War 2 without them. You probably do not have them figured out from your Twitter or TikTok feed.

ajuc 5y ago

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 There's a lot of recorded communication.

throwawayay02 5y ago
How is that a reliable source at all, it's just a piece of text backed by a company that wants to sell military communication equipment.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- megous 5y ago
  Maybe you missed the actual recordings...

ceejayoz 5y ago

> just as reliable as the reports of Chinese people falling flat on their face on the street after Covid broke out in Wuhan “Reliable enough for me to stock up successfully weeks before lockdown”, you mean?

namlem 5y ago

Russian troops have resorted to using unencrypted comms because the encrypted ones were too unreliable, so we actually do have some visibility now.

oneplane 5y ago

We have SDR and the ability to actively tap into their communication, while at the same time not seeing digital communication. This leads to two options: 1. They don't have any communications at all and the analog we capture is 'fake' 2. They are using the analog unencrypted channels we can all listen to In fantasyland there is a third option: they have wireless communication that isn't detectable at all and doesn't use devices we can take photos of.

gpderetta 5y ago
I know nothing of this stuff but potentially: - Extreme wide spectrum frequency hopping. Hard to distinguish from the noise floor. - Steganographic encrypted channel over fake unencrypted channel. If course when in doubt, assuming stupidity is the safe bet.
- oneplane 5y ago
  While I haven't dug deep in to the black arts that is RF and MW, it would indeed hide it better (the hopping), but because the noise floor would have 'more energy' during an active transmitter they would either always have to be transmitting or be so close to each other that they can keep the energy low. I think the analysis appliances are capable of finding hopping transmissions, even in the lower range (still expensive) spectrum analysers. It does of course depend on how fast they can scan the whole range and how wide the range is. But Hanlon's razor applies, and indeed, it is more likely incompetence.
chrisco255 5y ago
The reports of disarray from Russia have absolutely nothing to do with SDR comms or top secret military interceptions from the Pentagon. They're all based on social media videos that are mixing old events with current events, and some outright fabrications such as the Ghost of Kiev that a sitting U.S. congressperson fell for. Instead we have a clown show media that has already spent the last decade or two, disgracing itself repeatedly, from Iraq to Afghanistan to Syria to Libya to China to Russia unable to make any trustworthy context of current events. Even if our own military was making this claim, that is not automatically trustworthy either. It's likely propaganda, just as the WMDs were. You really do not know. So when you hear reports of a feckless Russian military completely unable to tell which way is North or unable to drop bombs without Google Maps access, and your first response is not skepticism, you aren't paying attention. Meanwhile, even if you had direct feeds of their comms, do you know which comms are headfakes and which ones are real? Don't be foolish. Russia is one of the most successful nations in military history. We probably would not have won World War 2 without them. You probably do not have them figured out from your Twitter or TikTok feed.