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People say stuff. I agree it would be risky to call his bluff, but I'd say it's more like a 10% risk than a 50% risk. Of course, a 10% chance of destroying the
by chmod600 5y ago
People say stuff. I agree it would be risky to call his bluff, but I'd say it's more like a 10% risk than a 50% risk.
Of course, a 10% chance of destroying the world is beyond my tolerance.
- deltree7 5y agoExcept, you completely made up that probability
- ceejayoz 5y agoThey were pretty clear it was their personal estimate. What probability of global thermonuclear war would you accept? 10%? 1%? 0.1%?
- chmod600 5y agoYeah, I mean even Putin doesn't know the real odds. It probably depends a lot on the exact circumstances/timing. And in the war, circumstances change all the time. Putin wants us to believe it's a Dr. Strangelove situation, where no humans make a choice and therefore nuclear annihalation is a guarantee if we cross a line. But that's false. Any line Putin draws can be tested and shifted along various axes: who crosses it, how bad it is for Russia, how egregious the violation is, how well it can be argued that it's not a violation, how long it takes to confirm that a violation has taken place, how certain he is that a violation has taken place, who authorized it, how long it takes to confirm who authorized it, etc. And we don't know for sure that Putin can unilaterally initiate a world-ending strike without anyone in the chain second-guessing him.