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I know everyone wants to paint the Russians as buffoons so hard right now, but do you really think they would organize and target air strikes with public Google

I know everyone wants to paint the Russians as buffoons so hard right now, but do you really think they would organize and target air strikes with public Google Maps markers?

ceejayoz 5y ago
Before the war? No. Given the other indicators of disorganization we've had in the last week? It's pretty plausible, especially given reports of them broadcasting in the clear and using text messages for comms.
- chrisco255 5y ago
  Are you aware of the concept of fog of war? We don't have any reasonable visibility into their operations. We have a scattered mix of social media reports that are just as reliable as the reports of Chinese people falling flat on their face on the street after Covid broke out in Wuhan. You have a bag of misinformation. That's all.
  - ajuc 5y ago
    https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 There's a lot of recorded communication.
    - throwawayay02 5y ago
      How is that a reliable source at all, it's just a piece of text backed by a company that wants to sell military communication equipment.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - megous 5y ago
        Maybe you missed the actual recordings...
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    > just as reliable as the reports of Chinese people falling flat on their face on the street after Covid broke out in Wuhan “Reliable enough for me to stock up successfully weeks before lockdown”, you mean?
  - namlem 5y ago
    Russian troops have resorted to using unencrypted comms because the encrypted ones were too unreliable, so we actually do have some visibility now.
  - oneplane 5y ago
    We have SDR and the ability to actively tap into their communication, while at the same time not seeing digital communication. This leads to two options: 1. They don't have any communications at all and the analog we capture is 'fake' 2. They are using the analog unencrypted channels we can all listen to In fantasyland there is a third option: they have wireless communication that isn't detectable at all and doesn't use devices we can take photos of.
    - gpderetta 5y ago
      I know nothing of this stuff but potentially: - Extreme wide spectrum frequency hopping. Hard to distinguish from the noise floor. - Steganographic encrypted channel over fake unencrypted channel. If course when in doubt, assuming stupidity is the safe bet.
      - oneplane 5y ago
        While I haven't dug deep in to the black arts that is RF and MW, it would indeed hide it better (the hopping), but because the noise floor would have 'more energy' during an active transmitter they would either always have to be transmitting or be so close to each other that they can keep the energy low. I think the analysis appliances are capable of finding hopping transmissions, even in the lower range (still expensive) spectrum analysers. It does of course depend on how fast they can scan the whole range and how wide the range is. But Hanlon's razor applies, and indeed, it is more likely incompetence.
    - chrisco255 5y ago
      The reports of disarray from Russia have absolutely nothing to do with SDR comms or top secret military interceptions from the Pentagon. They're all based on social media videos that are mixing old events with current events, and some outright fabrications such as the Ghost of Kiev that a sitting U.S. congressperson fell for. Instead we have a clown show media that has already spent the last decade or two, disgracing itself repeatedly, from Iraq to Afghanistan to Syria to Libya to China to Russia unable to make any trustworthy context of current events. Even if our own military was making this claim, that is not automatically trustworthy either. It's likely propaganda, just as the WMDs were. You really do not know. So when you hear reports of a feckless Russian military completely unable to tell which way is North or unable to drop bombs without Google Maps access, and your first response is not skepticism, you aren't paying attention. Meanwhile, even if you had direct feeds of their comms, do you know which comms are headfakes and which ones are real? Don't be foolish. Russia is one of the most successful nations in military history. We probably would not have won World War 2 without them. You probably do not have them figured out from your Twitter or TikTok feed.
- JacobThreeThree 5y ago
  >Given the other indicators of disorganization we've had in the last week What indicators are you referring to?
  - KaiserPro 5y ago
    1) _constantly_ letting armour columns run ahead of the logistical support, so they run out of fuel/food. 2) Some evidence of using clear radio communications because officers are too far away to be contacted 3) no coordination between air and ground 4) Allowing the column advancing to kiev to bunch up like that.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - rtsil 5y ago
    Presumably these? > reports of them broadcasting in the clear and using text messages for comms. More details, including recordings, in this thread (I don't speak Russian, so I can't confirm...) https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680
ajuc 5y ago
Some of them are using civilian analog radios with no encryption cause they lack equipment and have problems with long-range communication. So - yeah.
squarefoot 5y ago
> but do you really think they would organize and target air strikes with public Google Maps markers? Troops probably not, but undercover saboteurs couldn't risk to be caught with encrypted devices, radios etc. A tablet with a browser would raise a lot less warnings.
- hedora 5y ago
  I guess. Or they could use a tablet with a browser and yandex mail or even a popular one I didn't just invent.
kuraudo 5y ago
We were helping Russian mod organize strikes against isis in Syria by geolocating terrorist photos with Google maps: they were at least using that for interface with civilian spotters.

I know everyone wants to paint the Russians as buffoons so hard right now, but do you really think they would organize and target air strikes with public Google Maps markers?

ceejayoz 5y ago

Before the war? No. Given the other indicators of disorganization we've had in the last week? It's pretty plausible, especially given reports of them broadcasting in the clear and using text messages for comms.

chrisco255 5y ago
Are you aware of the concept of fog of war? We don't have any reasonable visibility into their operations. We have a scattered mix of social media reports that are just as reliable as the reports of Chinese people falling flat on their face on the street after Covid broke out in Wuhan. You have a bag of misinformation. That's all.
- ajuc 5y ago
  https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 There's a lot of recorded communication.
  - throwawayay02 5y ago
    How is that a reliable source at all, it's just a piece of text backed by a company that wants to sell military communication equipment.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - megous 5y ago
      Maybe you missed the actual recordings...
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > just as reliable as the reports of Chinese people falling flat on their face on the street after Covid broke out in Wuhan “Reliable enough for me to stock up successfully weeks before lockdown”, you mean?
- namlem 5y ago
  Russian troops have resorted to using unencrypted comms because the encrypted ones were too unreliable, so we actually do have some visibility now.
- oneplane 5y ago
  We have SDR and the ability to actively tap into their communication, while at the same time not seeing digital communication. This leads to two options: 1. They don't have any communications at all and the analog we capture is 'fake' 2. They are using the analog unencrypted channels we can all listen to In fantasyland there is a third option: they have wireless communication that isn't detectable at all and doesn't use devices we can take photos of.
  - gpderetta 5y ago
    I know nothing of this stuff but potentially: - Extreme wide spectrum frequency hopping. Hard to distinguish from the noise floor. - Steganographic encrypted channel over fake unencrypted channel. If course when in doubt, assuming stupidity is the safe bet.
    - oneplane 5y ago
      While I haven't dug deep in to the black arts that is RF and MW, it would indeed hide it better (the hopping), but because the noise floor would have 'more energy' during an active transmitter they would either always have to be transmitting or be so close to each other that they can keep the energy low. I think the analysis appliances are capable of finding hopping transmissions, even in the lower range (still expensive) spectrum analysers. It does of course depend on how fast they can scan the whole range and how wide the range is. But Hanlon's razor applies, and indeed, it is more likely incompetence.
  - chrisco255 5y ago
    The reports of disarray from Russia have absolutely nothing to do with SDR comms or top secret military interceptions from the Pentagon. They're all based on social media videos that are mixing old events with current events, and some outright fabrications such as the Ghost of Kiev that a sitting U.S. congressperson fell for. Instead we have a clown show media that has already spent the last decade or two, disgracing itself repeatedly, from Iraq to Afghanistan to Syria to Libya to China to Russia unable to make any trustworthy context of current events. Even if our own military was making this claim, that is not automatically trustworthy either. It's likely propaganda, just as the WMDs were. You really do not know. So when you hear reports of a feckless Russian military completely unable to tell which way is North or unable to drop bombs without Google Maps access, and your first response is not skepticism, you aren't paying attention. Meanwhile, even if you had direct feeds of their comms, do you know which comms are headfakes and which ones are real? Don't be foolish. Russia is one of the most successful nations in military history. We probably would not have won World War 2 without them. You probably do not have them figured out from your Twitter or TikTok feed.
JacobThreeThree 5y ago
>Given the other indicators of disorganization we've had in the last week What indicators are you referring to?
- KaiserPro 5y ago
  1) _constantly_ letting armour columns run ahead of the logistical support, so they run out of fuel/food. 2) Some evidence of using clear radio communications because officers are too far away to be contacted 3) no coordination between air and ground 4) Allowing the column advancing to kiev to bunch up like that.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- rtsil 5y ago
  Presumably these? > reports of them broadcasting in the clear and using text messages for comms. More details, including recordings, in this thread (I don't speak Russian, so I can't confirm...) https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680 https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680

ajuc 5y ago

Some of them are using civilian analog radios with no encryption cause they lack equipment and have problems with long-range communication. So - yeah.

squarefoot 5y ago

> but do you really think they would organize and target air strikes with public Google Maps markers? Troops probably not, but undercover saboteurs couldn't risk to be caught with encrypted devices, radios etc. A tablet with a browser would raise a lot less warnings.

hedora 5y ago
I guess. Or they could use a tablet with a browser and yandex mail or even a popular one I didn't just invent.

kuraudo 5y ago

We were helping Russian mod organize strikes against isis in Syria by geolocating terrorist photos with Google maps: they were at least using that for interface with civilian spotters.