So this is not a 0-1 game. Most of the risk in a startup (if you dont take VC) is getting to 5K MRR - 10K MRR. Once there, the existential risk should be reduce

So this is not a 0-1 game. Most of the risk in a startup (if you dont take VC) is getting to 5K MRR - 10K MRR. Once there, the existential risk should be reduced to zero. If you take VC, than there is always an existential risk, since you are relying on new money being available for the next round. Also, you diversify in the stock market mainly due to information uncertainty. I.e. you do not have any control on different risks (economy, company corruption, etc.). However, in a startup you have much more control on the company future (again, if you DONT take VC money). If you take VC money, than the company is basically a privately traded company, and you assume all the risks of a public company.