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Putin’s Strategic Failure and the Risk of Escalation

75 points by zepearl 5y ago

yariik 5y ago
- w0de0 5y ago
  Stop responding to comments like this. Like do you actually still believe they care about epistemology? Lol. Ignore the casualties of information war instead.
- mywittyname 5y ago
  What's wrong with this article specifically? All of the statements in the early paragraphs are factual to my knowledge, and the last section about Putin's next steps are clearly speculation, but evidence is provides to support the claims made. Lastly, the author seems credible. This is his area of expertise and he's served as ambassador to a co-belligerent in this conflict.
  - meepmorp 5y ago
    The article isn't a youtube video, which is apparently the only thing that now comprises news media.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
guilhas 5y ago
It seems to me that Putin invasion is stepping on egg shells because, as they stated, they are only interested in military targets, and a quick surrender. Although the war propaganda is scaring everyone and making this objective more difficult The Russian demand of a neutral Ukraine outside of NATO is not unreasonable US/UK/EU leaders seem really interested in escalation doing everything they can to antagonize everyone against each other, they really don't care how much regular people suffer as long as Russia is "punished" Russia has no interest or capability of taking Ukraine or the EU. Say no to war
- minerva23 5y ago
  - leobg 5y ago
    I think it might be more valuable for everyone here if you pointed out factual errors instead of making sweeping statements like that.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      Kyiv TV Tower was just hit today. Feel free to find the footage, its all over the place, everyone recorded it. Is not a TV-station a civilian target? Or do you think that's a valid military target? ------ Is UK President Zelenskyy a "valid military target" ? He's a civilian, and assassination attempts on civilian leadership is frowned upon. ------------ Its clear that Russia has begun to attack the _civilians_ of Ukraine. Hell, Russia may have been attacking civilians on Day 1, but now we have incredible video evidence of these attacks just a few days in. Anyone claiming that Russia is "only targeting military" ignores the hospitals, neighborhoods, TV-stations, and leadership buildings that have been blown up by the Russians. This isn't just a one-off error, this is going on across Ukraine in general, wherever the Russian military is located. ----- A major Kharkiv government building was just blown up too. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kharkiv-official-russian-missiles-hit-city-administration-residential-areas-2022-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kharkiv-official-russia... There wasn't any military there. That was a civilian target. Anyone calling these attacks "valid military targets" is clearly tied into Russian propaganda. Maybe they aren't aware of it and are just copy/pasting their "trusted news sources", but now is the time to wake up and realize that they're being mislead by the Russian government. Its utterly simple to prove that civilians are dying here. We got videos of it after all, we're in the smartphone age.
    - witrak 5y ago
      This part o the discussion is not on facts but opinions. You seem to allow guilhas to express highly arguable opinions but at the same time don't allow a (no less justified) opinion about guilhas.
mensetmanusman 5y ago
When discussing with my students the pros and cons of different political enterprises, I would often bring up the observation that authoritarian technocratic systems can indeed benefit from focus. (see: China’s rapid infrastructure progress, state backed technology capture, etc.) I then immediately point out downside: the increased risk of horribly bad decisions. These occur because a monoculture tends to form and such decisions are less likely in the painfully slow framework of democracy where everyone is ’allowed’ to voice their concerns (see: Parks and Rec). Putin’s incredibly poor decision completely negates (and then some) the gains made over the past many years. “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” – Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.
typon 5y ago
Why is this post not flagged as off topic?
- mckirk 5y ago
  Because it is interesting to people on this platform?
- Koshkin 5y ago
  Because it is on-topic.

75 points by zepearl 5y ago

w0de0 5y ago
Stop responding to comments like this. Like do you actually still believe they care about epistemology? Lol. Ignore the casualties of information war instead.
mywittyname 5y ago
What's wrong with this article specifically? All of the statements in the early paragraphs are factual to my knowledge, and the last section about Putin's next steps are clearly speculation, but evidence is provides to support the claims made. Lastly, the author seems credible. This is his area of expertise and he's served as ambassador to a co-belligerent in this conflict.
- meepmorp 5y ago
  The article isn't a youtube video, which is apparently the only thing that now comprises news media.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

It seems to me that Putin invasion is stepping on egg shells because, as they stated, they are only interested in military targets, and a quick surrender. Although the war propaganda is scaring everyone and making this objective more difficult The Russian demand of a neutral Ukraine outside of NATO is not unreasonable US/UK/EU leaders seem really interested in escalation doing everything they can to antagonize everyone against each other, they really don't care how much regular people suffer as long as Russia is "punished" Russia has no interest or capability of taking Ukraine or the EU. Say no to war

minerva23 5y ago
- leobg 5y ago
  I think it might be more valuable for everyone here if you pointed out factual errors instead of making sweeping statements like that.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Kyiv TV Tower was just hit today. Feel free to find the footage, its all over the place, everyone recorded it. Is not a TV-station a civilian target? Or do you think that's a valid military target? ------ Is UK President Zelenskyy a "valid military target" ? He's a civilian, and assassination attempts on civilian leadership is frowned upon. ------------ Its clear that Russia has begun to attack the _civilians_ of Ukraine. Hell, Russia may have been attacking civilians on Day 1, but now we have incredible video evidence of these attacks just a few days in. Anyone claiming that Russia is "only targeting military" ignores the hospitals, neighborhoods, TV-stations, and leadership buildings that have been blown up by the Russians. This isn't just a one-off error, this is going on across Ukraine in general, wherever the Russian military is located. ----- A major Kharkiv government building was just blown up too. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kharkiv-official-russian-missiles-hit-city-administration-residential-areas-2022-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kharkiv-official-russia... There wasn't any military there. That was a civilian target. Anyone calling these attacks "valid military targets" is clearly tied into Russian propaganda. Maybe they aren't aware of it and are just copy/pasting their "trusted news sources", but now is the time to wake up and realize that they're being mislead by the Russian government. Its utterly simple to prove that civilians are dying here. We got videos of it after all, we're in the smartphone age.
  - witrak 5y ago
    This part o the discussion is not on facts but opinions. You seem to allow guilhas to express highly arguable opinions but at the same time don't allow a (no less justified) opinion about guilhas.

mensetmanusman 5y ago

When discussing with my students the pros and cons of different political enterprises, I would often bring up the observation that authoritarian technocratic systems can indeed benefit from focus. (see: China’s rapid infrastructure progress, state backed technology capture, etc.) I then immediately point out downside: the increased risk of horribly bad decisions. These occur because a monoculture tends to form and such decisions are less likely in the painfully slow framework of democracy where everyone is ’allowed’ to voice their concerns (see: Parks and Rec). Putin’s incredibly poor decision completely negates (and then some) the gains made over the past many years. “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” – Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.

typon 5y ago

Why is this post not flagged as off topic?

mckirk 5y ago
Because it is interesting to people on this platform?
Koshkin 5y ago
Because it is on-topic.