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Just talked about this today with a few of my Russian friends. This only prompts Putin ratings to grow. It frustrates the opposition (30% of Russians). But i

by kirso 5y ago

Just talked about this today with a few of my Russian friends. This only prompts Putin ratings to grow. It frustrates the opposition (30% of Russians). But it also makes the supporters hate the west even more. So if all these sanctions are there to frustrate people to create a coup and a revolution - its currently working in the opposite direction. EDIT: I don't mean it as something that I wish, just stating an opinion from locals I have spoken with.

scandox 5y ago
Going by history sanctions do tend to entrench authoritarian rulers. I still think there isn't any choice. He used the "Nuclear" word and now I think Europe's policy will be containment for a very long time. Edit: added "be"
- nnx 5y ago
  > I still think there isn't any choice I don't think we tried to push for Ukraine as neutral state, like Finland, did we? Does EU/NATO really NEED Ukraine to join them? Seems like it would be a simple peaceful discussion worth having rather than risking more suffering. Discussion might not work... but the fact it's not even on the table is absolutely insane.
  - fundatus 5y ago
    The thing is "neutral state" for Putin means a russian vassal state. So not an option.
  - tomerv 5y ago
    The "Ukraine as a neutral state" angle sounded plausible maybe 5 years ago. But the fact is that Putin started a war despite no significant recent change in Ukraine's relationship with NATO or EU.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > The "Ukraine as a neutral state" angle sounded plausible maybe 5 years ago. But the fact is that Putin started a war despite no significant recent change in Ukraine's relationship with NATO or EU. Escalated an existing war that has lasted more than 5 years, and which certain NATO members have been very clear is why Ukraine wasn't being allowed to advance in its quest for membership.
      - neuronic 5y ago
        If you're implying that Ukraine has recently escalated "a war lasting 5 years" then that's fundamentally ridiculous and you should be extremely embarrassed. But maybe I read that wrong? In that case I apologize. Aggression is very very clearly ONLY coming from the Putin inner circle thugs who sacrifice Russian lives to kill Ukrainians and unlawfully attack a sovereign state, recognized as such by the entirety of the UN. All under the guise of idiotic lies that stink to the Moon. It's incredible how any Russian still listens to Putin, Lawrow and the rest of these thugs. They must fear a lot of repercussions. Russia could be rich, connected and prosperous instead.
        dragonwriter 5y ago
        > If you're implying that Ukraine has recently escalated The subject of the sentence that I posted the correction to was “Putin”, not “Ukraine”, and the correction was to the verb phrase, from “started a war”, to “escalated a war...”, not to the subject. So, no, I’m directly stating that Putin escalated war he’s been waging since 2014, not “implying” that Ukraine escalated anything.
  - glogla 5y ago
    It is not on the table because appeasement of dictators don't work.
  - Maakuth 5y ago
    Hear it from the former Finnish PM, Finland is not neutral, even though we were forced to be during the cold war: https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1497619756760895489 https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1497619756760895... During this period, our politics underwent 'Finlandization', basically giving USSR veto powers over our internal policies. It probably was a necessity to avoid an invasion, but certainly nothing you'd recommend to anyone.
  - sampo 5y ago
    > I don't think we tried to push for Ukraine as neutral state, like Finland, did we? Does EU/NATO really NEED Ukraine to join them? Yours is an imperialistic attitude. The question is not, how could EU or US or NATO or Russia push Ukraine about. The question is, what do the Ukrainians themselves want or need.
  - kirso 5y ago
    I think its too late for that. Think Ukraine will push for Putin to have consequences, but I don't think they have enough leverage for that just yet. The situation is incredibly complicated, but I see a few scenarios: - Russia succeeds in their siege and installs puppet government, however with a lot of casualties. The west and NATO probably convey their disappointment, continue with sanctions and the diplomatic divide. Ukraine will be split. At least with LDR / DNR with Russian interpretation. - Ukraine succeeds in holding off the pressure, NATO involves themselves more directly (already partially happening). Russia will unleash their anger - this is the worst case which comes with a lot of unpredictability in terms of destruction and casualties. - Ukraine / Russia come to an agreement of neutrality. This is becoming highly unlikely as Ukraine will seek revenge for what has been happening till now, Russia will have to remove some of the officials and install theirs - this will never happen under current rule. So the above two scenarios are more likely :( EDIT: indentation
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
rosndo 5y ago
You misunderstand. A coup by the people on the streets is tremendously unlikely, but the odds of a palace coup grows every day. The people most hurt by these sanctions are those closest to Putin, the people who have made themselves fabulously wealthy by maintaining close ties to the government. Their quality of life has been most severely impacted by this move.
- kirso 5y ago
  I don't, but your assumption is right. The issue is that Putin holds power over them. The question is under which conditions... EDIT: typo
glogla 5y ago
The Russians are keeping Putin in power. If sanctions motivate them to do something about him, good. If they just serve as punishment for supporting that monster, good enough.
Ajef 5y ago
> So if all these sanctions are there to frustrate people to create a coup and a revolution - its currently working in the opposite direction. I do not believe that is the purpose. I think the idea is to make it costly for Putin to go forward. Sadly this is at the cost of the well-being of the russian population.
- kirso 5y ago
  Yep it will be, but he also doesn't care about the people - thats indeed the worst part :(
koonsolo 5y ago
If that is the case, the west took the right decision. We don't need to fund a country that uses those funds to attack us.
KptMarchewa 5y ago
So, appeasing Putin and giving him everything he wants will make his ratings drop. Sure.
- kirso 5y ago
  This hasn't been implied anywhere, please read again.

by kirso 5y ago

scandox 5y ago

Going by history sanctions do tend to entrench authoritarian rulers. I still think there isn't any choice. He used the "Nuclear" word and now I think Europe's policy will be containment for a very long time. Edit: added "be"

nnx 5y ago
> I still think there isn't any choice I don't think we tried to push for Ukraine as neutral state, like Finland, did we? Does EU/NATO really NEED Ukraine to join them? Seems like it would be a simple peaceful discussion worth having rather than risking more suffering. Discussion might not work... but the fact it's not even on the table is absolutely insane.
- fundatus 5y ago
  The thing is "neutral state" for Putin means a russian vassal state. So not an option.
- tomerv 5y ago
  The "Ukraine as a neutral state" angle sounded plausible maybe 5 years ago. But the fact is that Putin started a war despite no significant recent change in Ukraine's relationship with NATO or EU.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > The "Ukraine as a neutral state" angle sounded plausible maybe 5 years ago. But the fact is that Putin started a war despite no significant recent change in Ukraine's relationship with NATO or EU. Escalated an existing war that has lasted more than 5 years, and which certain NATO members have been very clear is why Ukraine wasn't being allowed to advance in its quest for membership.
    - neuronic 5y ago
      If you're implying that Ukraine has recently escalated "a war lasting 5 years" then that's fundamentally ridiculous and you should be extremely embarrassed. But maybe I read that wrong? In that case I apologize. Aggression is very very clearly ONLY coming from the Putin inner circle thugs who sacrifice Russian lives to kill Ukrainians and unlawfully attack a sovereign state, recognized as such by the entirety of the UN. All under the guise of idiotic lies that stink to the Moon. It's incredible how any Russian still listens to Putin, Lawrow and the rest of these thugs. They must fear a lot of repercussions. Russia could be rich, connected and prosperous instead.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > If you're implying that Ukraine has recently escalated The subject of the sentence that I posted the correction to was “Putin”, not “Ukraine”, and the correction was to the verb phrase, from “started a war”, to “escalated a war...”, not to the subject. So, no, I’m directly stating that Putin escalated war he’s been waging since 2014, not “implying” that Ukraine escalated anything.
- glogla 5y ago
  It is not on the table because appeasement of dictators don't work.
- Maakuth 5y ago
  Hear it from the former Finnish PM, Finland is not neutral, even though we were forced to be during the cold war: https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1497619756760895489 https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1497619756760895... During this period, our politics underwent 'Finlandization', basically giving USSR veto powers over our internal policies. It probably was a necessity to avoid an invasion, but certainly nothing you'd recommend to anyone.
- sampo 5y ago
  > I don't think we tried to push for Ukraine as neutral state, like Finland, did we? Does EU/NATO really NEED Ukraine to join them? Yours is an imperialistic attitude. The question is not, how could EU or US or NATO or Russia push Ukraine about. The question is, what do the Ukrainians themselves want or need.
- kirso 5y ago
  I think its too late for that. Think Ukraine will push for Putin to have consequences, but I don't think they have enough leverage for that just yet. The situation is incredibly complicated, but I see a few scenarios: - Russia succeeds in their siege and installs puppet government, however with a lot of casualties. The west and NATO probably convey their disappointment, continue with sanctions and the diplomatic divide. Ukraine will be split. At least with LDR / DNR with Russian interpretation. - Ukraine succeeds in holding off the pressure, NATO involves themselves more directly (already partially happening). Russia will unleash their anger - this is the worst case which comes with a lot of unpredictability in terms of destruction and casualties. - Ukraine / Russia come to an agreement of neutrality. This is becoming highly unlikely as Ukraine will seek revenge for what has been happening till now, Russia will have to remove some of the officials and install theirs - this will never happen under current rule. So the above two scenarios are more likely :( EDIT: indentation
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

rosndo 5y ago

You misunderstand. A coup by the people on the streets is tremendously unlikely, but the odds of a palace coup grows every day. The people most hurt by these sanctions are those closest to Putin, the people who have made themselves fabulously wealthy by maintaining close ties to the government. Their quality of life has been most severely impacted by this move.

kirso 5y ago
I don't, but your assumption is right. The issue is that Putin holds power over them. The question is under which conditions... EDIT: typo

glogla 5y ago

The Russians are keeping Putin in power. If sanctions motivate them to do something about him, good. If they just serve as punishment for supporting that monster, good enough.

Ajef 5y ago

> So if all these sanctions are there to frustrate people to create a coup and a revolution - its currently working in the opposite direction. I do not believe that is the purpose. I think the idea is to make it costly for Putin to go forward. Sadly this is at the cost of the well-being of the russian population.

kirso 5y ago
Yep it will be, but he also doesn't care about the people - thats indeed the worst part :(

koonsolo 5y ago

If that is the case, the west took the right decision. We don't need to fund a country that uses those funds to attack us.

KptMarchewa 5y ago

So, appeasing Putin and giving him everything he wants will make his ratings drop. Sure.

kirso 5y ago
This hasn't been implied anywhere, please read again.