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I would add that the unspecifity of the threat was what kept Putin going. Consider what would have happened if "The West" handed Putin a detailed list of the s
by ysamjo 5y ago
I would add that the unspecifity of the threat was what kept Putin going.
Consider what would have happened if "The West" handed Putin a detailed list of the sanctions that are in effect now A WEEK AGO.
Lower costs and lower risks. That's why far-sighted politics are so important.
- intended 5y agoPutin had already been setting up the Russian economy in a way so as to minimize the impact of sanctions.
- watwut 5y ago> Consider what would have happened if "The West" handed Putin a detailed list of the sanctions that are in effect now A WEEK AGO. Putin would say that is why he attacked Ukraine. His cheerleads would then blame Biden, claiming Putin had no choice.
- ysamjo 5y agoDoesn't make sense to me. It's a simple If-This-Then-That logic. The sanctions only take place once he invades. If there's no invasion of course there are no sanctions.
- helge9210 5y agoConsider that he has own logic of: if they present us with possible sanctions, it's considered aggression, so we attack, else they are weak, so we attack.
- roca 5y agoHe wouldn't have believed the list. Just like a lot of Europeans didn't believe he would invade Ukraine.
- jacquesm 5y agoThis is a good point but: (1) what happened was considered unthinkable by many, (2) the wold has changed which allowed those sanctions and (3) the idea was not to 'rock the boat' and saying if you do this we will do that could have allowed for the Russian side to plan better playing into their hands and might have encouraged them to start a war. So this is easy to say now, but I don't think there would have been any takers for this three weeks ago when for instance Germany was still firmly in the mistaken mindset that all of this is so unlikely that they don't need to prepare for it at all.