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Saying "Ukraine will remain neutral and will not join NATO" would have stopped this war. It's an unpopular fact but it's still true.

by pydry 5y ago

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
KptMarchewa 5y ago
You must be insane to believe that. Would saying Gdańsk will be neutral and Germany can transport troops between East Prussia and rest of country stop Hitler? No, those are just pretexts. He'd just go further and further and attack while you'd be way way worse position.
- pydry 5y ago
  Hitler didnt sit publicly on a border with troops threatening to invade for 3 months with one single demand. Putin isnt Hitler. He's a monster hes just not that specific monster.
  - KptMarchewa 5y ago
    Oh, but he did. And when he got it, then he moved to other country with other demand. Do you really believe this would end at Ukraine?
  - rad_gruchalski 5y ago
    > Putin isnt Hitler. I agree. He wants to be like Stalin. He wants to be greater than Stalin.
  - bzcat 5y ago
    that choice between giving in to "small" russian demands vs. fighting has played of in history multiple times and even specifically with Russia. For example after signing MRP with Germany to divide up europe between them, Russia amassed huge army on the borders of baltic states and Finland and demanded allowing Russian military bases in these countries and establishment of russian friendly governments. Finland went to war over it, took huge losses but managed to fight back well enough to stay independent even though some territory was lost. Countries that gave in to these demands without much resistance to avoid huge bloodshed were occupied shortly and lost their independence for 50 years. Multiple rounds of deportation to siberia and executions of anyone who had military, police or government background were done over the next years so in the end it's not clear if the loss of life was any smaller for these countries if it would have been if they fought back. So in hindsight it seems better choice was to fight back and have a chance of freedom. PS. it's not single demand at all, you should read more of Putins speeches and writings, especially those meant for Russian audiences. For example the one televised on 21.02.2022 where he goes on and on about some mystical "west" that has tried to destroy the russian for over a century and how ukraine has no right to exist anyway etc. That NATO talk is mostly for western audiences, internally the message seems to be more about re-establishing the russian empire (which he seems to think is god given right) and talk about superiority of the russian civilization (ruskiy mir). So everything indeed sounds eerily similar to sittuation and delusions that led to WW2.
Cthulhu_ 5y ago
And then what? Everybody would be happy ever after? No, Russia wants a pro-Russia government in Ukraine, and they didn't like that Ukraine instead moved away from Russia and Russian influence via things like promoting the Ukranian language instead of Russian. It's a bullying tactic and infringes on a country's sovereignty.
- pydry 5y ago
  Is peace not the highest priority? I dont want Ukraine to be pro Russian but I dont want Kyiv to be shelled more. I dont want a nuclear war more. It absolutely is a bullying tactic, but it's also the desperate act of a country that is trying to protect the integrity of its most exposed border from an explicitly hostile power (NATO).
  - danachow 5y ago
    > Is peace not the highest priority? No it’s not. Not if being at peace means being subjugated by a despot. You’re a fool.
    - pydry 5y ago
      Neutrality doesnt mean subjugation. I have friends and family who are suffering because of this. I dont use my words lightly. Hearing westerners cheerlead for this war is painful, most especially when it could have been prevented just by saying NATO ends at the western Ukrainian border.
      - fer 5y ago
        > Neutrality doesnt mean subjugation. It does though. Latest Putin demands involve complete demilitarization of Ukraine. For what purpose? Invading it better afterwards?
        pydry 5y ago
        Breaking it such that it becomes useless to NATO.
kikimora 5y ago
Pardon my French but this is bullshit. Putin’s perverted logic goes like this - Ukrainian joins NATO, it establish missiles, Moscow in danger. The problem is Ukraine does not have to join NATO to have US missiles on its territory. Basic military agreement would allow that. Such an agreement technically was possible as early as 1992. The fact of life - there is no such agreement, hence whole idea of NATO or US threat to Russia is a propaganda construct. PS: I’m Russian and I want this war to stop immediately.
- thinkindie 5y ago
  also - in 2022 you don't really need to have basis with nuclear missiles at the doorstep to be a threat (so much that Putin also escalated on this topic too). You have submarines that can launch an attack with nuclear missiles, you have intercontinental vectors to deliver nukes. Putin is just trying to restore the idea of Russian Empire and/or Soviet Union. Same as Hitler trying to restore the German Empire.
  - roca 5y ago
    Also, Russia already has NATO states on its borders, and there aren't nukes stationed there.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Tiny point of order: you don't actually know that.
      - roca 5y ago
        Maybe only America truly knows, but CND (via Wikipedia) agrees with me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing https://cnduk.org/resources/united-states-nuclear-weapons-europe/ https://cnduk.org/resources/united-states-nuclear-weapons-eu...
        jacquesm 5y ago
simonh 5y ago
Either you believe in democracy, or you do not. If the Ukrainian people want to join the EU or NATO, and our people want them to join us as well, they have the right to make that choice as free sovereign people, and we should back them up. Any other response is itself subjugation, and capitulation to terror.
- pydry 5y ago
  I do believe in democracy. It doesnt change anything about what I just said.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - simonh 5y ago
    Rolling over and giving in to threats sometimes means those threats aren't carried out. Sometimes. Other times it simply emboldens and encourages the ones making the threats to threaten even more. The fact that Putin is using Ukraine's possibly joining NATO as an excuse to invade does not mean he would not have invaded anyway. It's entirely likely he would have seen that as a further sign of weakness and simply found another excuse. So no, I don't agree that what you said is true and I don't understand how you can be so sure of it.
    - pydry 5y ago
      It's possible but I dont think it's at all likely given the immense cost of invasion and the sheer impossibility of occupying. Putin is not unaware that Russia will come out of this bloody and bruised and nearly broken (potentially completely) and he's not irrational either.
      - simonh 5y ago
        He may be aware of that now, but I don't think he was at all aware of it a week ago. I think he was expecting an easy takeover just like Crimea.
nl 5y ago
Ukraine hadn't even applied to join NATO. There's a big difference between Ukraine saying it won't join (that's up to them) and NATO acknowledging Russia "sphere of influence" arguments by preventivly saying they won't be allowed to.
rosndo 5y ago
Laughable to think that NATO expansion alone would’ve been sufficient for the cost-benefit calculation here. Putin wants his name in history books.
dash2 5y ago
It is not true. There was zero chance that Ukraine was going to join NATO. It wasn’t on the table. Putin has explicitly told us why he went to war, and it is to do with reversing Russia’s territorial losses since 1991 or even 1917.
gtf21 5y ago
No-one seriously believed Ukraine was going to join NATO, it wasn't even on the cards. This is just a false excuse trumped up by Putin's apologists. Listen to what he says: he claims Ukraine is a fake state and that it is really part of Russia. In 2005 he claimed that the collapse of the USSR was a geopolitical tragedy and a further tragedy because it meant that many "fellow citizens" were now outside of Russia's borders. I.e. Putin wants to re-establish Muscovite control over vast swathes of territory he believes are Russia's right to control.
throwaway2037 5y ago
It pains me to admit that I agree with you. This is naturally "realpolitik", but makes many people uncomfortable.
- watwut 5y ago
  To large extend, because this is international forum. While some Americans don't mind to sacrifice others, other nato members in fact mind being sacrificed. For them "realpolitik" is not "sacrifice me", no matter how much it makes you uncomfortable.
systemBuilder 5y ago
If you think that promises never to join NATO would satisfy Putin, then you are brainwashed by Putin! Ukraine has already offered that peace offering of NATO neutrality. Putin has as also demanded that all Soviet / Warsaw pact countries become undefended so they will be naked tó Russian aggression! Putin wants to expand his dominance in northern Asia. 140m citizens is not enough; he wants to add 45m Ukrainians to have 185m! He is a colonial dictator in his homeland and does as he pleases!
ogogmad 5y ago
Ukraine was not going to join NATO, given that it's having an ongoing territorial dispute with Russia. But also, Russia's belief that it's entitled to decide for another sovereign country which clubs it can and cannot join reveals what Russia's actual intentions were. [EDIT: The relevant club for Ukraine is actually the European Union.] The so-called "anti-Imperialists" on the far left like George Galloway who have always seen NATO as the enemy, and have always supported anti-NATO countries like Russia, Iran, Venezuela and China with 95% of their throats, have a really odd understanding of what imperialism is. Is this war the most blatant, non-galaxy-brained instance of "imperialism" that we've seen in many of our lifetimes?
- ssijak 5y ago
  Are you naive enough in the thinking that US is not doing the same or even worse than Russia (because US reach is much bigger)? Influencing, blackmailing and toppling governments they deem not cooperative enough.
  - me_me_me 5y ago
    Who the fuck cares what US did/does, its completely separate matter. Just because US is warmongering doesn't mean russia can too.
    - ssijak 5y ago
      "Who the fuck cares what US did/does" that is the exact mentality that get us in this kind of situations. I did not say Russia can, nobody should be able to do that. I'm just saying that the next time US warmongers and plans to destroy another country, that we in the "west" should sound the same outcry we are doing now.
      - me_me_me 5y ago
        The next time around people like you will be complaining about 'how come russia invaded ukraine and it was ok' so how come conflict x is suddenly not ok. This kind of argument only derails conversations and doesn't achieve anything.
JGM_io 5y ago
Also nato not expanding towards russian borders even after promising it wouldn't by james baker, 1990[1] [1] https://ibb.co/xgqRWG3 https://ibb.co/xgqRWG3
- HstryrsrBttn 5y ago
- dncornholio 5y ago
  32 years ago some guy thought he could make this decision for half of Europe. I'm so shocked! NATO seems a real threat! Look at how the NATO oppresses their people, bring no economic growth and just made the countries so much worse to live in!
trhway 5y ago
>Saying "Ukraine will remain neutral and will not join NATO" would have stopped this war. >It's an unpopular fact but it's still true. absolutely not. The events of the last few days show exactly why Ukraine was right to want to join NATO. Ukraine knows Russia probably better than anybody else in the world. If anything Ukraine's refusal to promise neutrality is just a convenient - in Russian view - excuse for the invasion. Blaming Ukraine like you do is just a victim blaming.
anonAndOn 5y ago
If your partner wants to break up with you and date other people because you're an ass and offer nothing they want, who are you to stop them? If Ukraine wants to break up with Russia and join other alliances because it's an ass and offers nothing Ukraine wants, who is Russia to stop it?
dncornholio 5y ago
That's basically the same as saying if Puting wasn't president, the war wouldn't happened. True but meaningless. A country should decide what it does and should not rely on another country's approval.
mvc 5y ago
Maybe, maybe not, but who do you think has the right or power to declare that Ukraine will remain neutral?
jacquesm 5y ago
It's impopular because it isn't true. And yet you keep repeating it in thread after thread.
indymike 5y ago
> It's an unpopular fact but it's still true. This is not a fact. It is at best an educated and optimistic opinion.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > It is at best an educated and optimistic opinion. Not even that. It is at best an uneducated and wildly optimistic opinion.
me_me_me 5y ago
Unpopular opinion. Russia agreed to respect Ukrainian territory if they give up their nuclear arsenal. Maybe before russia starts demanding something they should first keep their promises first

Saying "Ukraine will remain neutral and will not join NATO" would have stopped this war. It's an unpopular fact but it's still true.

by pydry 5y ago

Saying "Ukraine will remain neutral and will not join NATO" would have stopped this war. It's an unpopular fact but it's still true.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

KptMarchewa 5y ago

You must be insane to believe that. Would saying Gdańsk will be neutral and Germany can transport troops between East Prussia and rest of country stop Hitler? No, those are just pretexts. He'd just go further and further and attack while you'd be way way worse position.

pydry 5y ago
Hitler didnt sit publicly on a border with troops threatening to invade for 3 months with one single demand. Putin isnt Hitler. He's a monster hes just not that specific monster.
- KptMarchewa 5y ago
  Oh, but he did. And when he got it, then he moved to other country with other demand. Do you really believe this would end at Ukraine?
- rad_gruchalski 5y ago
  > Putin isnt Hitler. I agree. He wants to be like Stalin. He wants to be greater than Stalin.
- bzcat 5y ago
  that choice between giving in to "small" russian demands vs. fighting has played of in history multiple times and even specifically with Russia. For example after signing MRP with Germany to divide up europe between them, Russia amassed huge army on the borders of baltic states and Finland and demanded allowing Russian military bases in these countries and establishment of russian friendly governments. Finland went to war over it, took huge losses but managed to fight back well enough to stay independent even though some territory was lost. Countries that gave in to these demands without much resistance to avoid huge bloodshed were occupied shortly and lost their independence for 50 years. Multiple rounds of deportation to siberia and executions of anyone who had military, police or government background were done over the next years so in the end it's not clear if the loss of life was any smaller for these countries if it would have been if they fought back. So in hindsight it seems better choice was to fight back and have a chance of freedom. PS. it's not single demand at all, you should read more of Putins speeches and writings, especially those meant for Russian audiences. For example the one televised on 21.02.2022 where he goes on and on about some mystical "west" that has tried to destroy the russian for over a century and how ukraine has no right to exist anyway etc. That NATO talk is mostly for western audiences, internally the message seems to be more about re-establishing the russian empire (which he seems to think is god given right) and talk about superiority of the russian civilization (ruskiy mir). So everything indeed sounds eerily similar to sittuation and delusions that led to WW2.

Cthulhu_ 5y ago

And then what? Everybody would be happy ever after? No, Russia wants a pro-Russia government in Ukraine, and they didn't like that Ukraine instead moved away from Russia and Russian influence via things like promoting the Ukranian language instead of Russian. It's a bullying tactic and infringes on a country's sovereignty.

pydry 5y ago
Is peace not the highest priority? I dont want Ukraine to be pro Russian but I dont want Kyiv to be shelled more. I dont want a nuclear war more. It absolutely is a bullying tactic, but it's also the desperate act of a country that is trying to protect the integrity of its most exposed border from an explicitly hostile power (NATO).
- danachow 5y ago
  > Is peace not the highest priority? No it’s not. Not if being at peace means being subjugated by a despot. You’re a fool.
  - pydry 5y ago
    Neutrality doesnt mean subjugation. I have friends and family who are suffering because of this. I dont use my words lightly. Hearing westerners cheerlead for this war is painful, most especially when it could have been prevented just by saying NATO ends at the western Ukrainian border.
    - fer 5y ago
      > Neutrality doesnt mean subjugation. It does though. Latest Putin demands involve complete demilitarization of Ukraine. For what purpose? Invading it better afterwards?
      - pydry 5y ago
        Breaking it such that it becomes useless to NATO.

kikimora 5y ago

Pardon my French but this is bullshit. Putin’s perverted logic goes like this - Ukrainian joins NATO, it establish missiles, Moscow in danger. The problem is Ukraine does not have to join NATO to have US missiles on its territory. Basic military agreement would allow that. Such an agreement technically was possible as early as 1992. The fact of life - there is no such agreement, hence whole idea of NATO or US threat to Russia is a propaganda construct. PS: I’m Russian and I want this war to stop immediately.

thinkindie 5y ago
also - in 2022 you don't really need to have basis with nuclear missiles at the doorstep to be a threat (so much that Putin also escalated on this topic too). You have submarines that can launch an attack with nuclear missiles, you have intercontinental vectors to deliver nukes. Putin is just trying to restore the idea of Russian Empire and/or Soviet Union. Same as Hitler trying to restore the German Empire.
- roca 5y ago
  Also, Russia already has NATO states on its borders, and there aren't nukes stationed there.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Tiny point of order: you don't actually know that.
    - roca 5y ago
      Maybe only America truly knows, but CND (via Wikipedia) agrees with me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing https://cnduk.org/resources/united-states-nuclear-weapons-europe/ https://cnduk.org/resources/united-states-nuclear-weapons-eu...
      - jacquesm 5y ago

simonh 5y ago

Either you believe in democracy, or you do not. If the Ukrainian people want to join the EU or NATO, and our people want them to join us as well, they have the right to make that choice as free sovereign people, and we should back them up. Any other response is itself subjugation, and capitulation to terror.

pydry 5y ago
I do believe in democracy. It doesnt change anything about what I just said.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- simonh 5y ago
  Rolling over and giving in to threats sometimes means those threats aren't carried out. Sometimes. Other times it simply emboldens and encourages the ones making the threats to threaten even more. The fact that Putin is using Ukraine's possibly joining NATO as an excuse to invade does not mean he would not have invaded anyway. It's entirely likely he would have seen that as a further sign of weakness and simply found another excuse. So no, I don't agree that what you said is true and I don't understand how you can be so sure of it.
  - pydry 5y ago
    It's possible but I dont think it's at all likely given the immense cost of invasion and the sheer impossibility of occupying. Putin is not unaware that Russia will come out of this bloody and bruised and nearly broken (potentially completely) and he's not irrational either.
    - simonh 5y ago
      He may be aware of that now, but I don't think he was at all aware of it a week ago. I think he was expecting an easy takeover just like Crimea.

nl 5y ago

Ukraine hadn't even applied to join NATO. There's a big difference between Ukraine saying it won't join (that's up to them) and NATO acknowledging Russia "sphere of influence" arguments by preventivly saying they won't be allowed to.

rosndo 5y ago

Laughable to think that NATO expansion alone would’ve been sufficient for the cost-benefit calculation here. Putin wants his name in history books.

dash2 5y ago

It is not true. There was zero chance that Ukraine was going to join NATO. It wasn’t on the table. Putin has explicitly told us why he went to war, and it is to do with reversing Russia’s territorial losses since 1991 or even 1917.

gtf21 5y ago

No-one seriously believed Ukraine was going to join NATO, it wasn't even on the cards. This is just a false excuse trumped up by Putin's apologists. Listen to what he says: he claims Ukraine is a fake state and that it is really part of Russia. In 2005 he claimed that the collapse of the USSR was a geopolitical tragedy and a further tragedy because it meant that many "fellow citizens" were now outside of Russia's borders. I.e. Putin wants to re-establish Muscovite control over vast swathes of territory he believes are Russia's right to control.

throwaway2037 5y ago

It pains me to admit that I agree with you. This is naturally "realpolitik", but makes many people uncomfortable.

watwut 5y ago
To large extend, because this is international forum. While some Americans don't mind to sacrifice others, other nato members in fact mind being sacrificed. For them "realpolitik" is not "sacrifice me", no matter how much it makes you uncomfortable.

systemBuilder 5y ago

If you think that promises never to join NATO would satisfy Putin, then you are brainwashed by Putin! Ukraine has already offered that peace offering of NATO neutrality. Putin has as also demanded that all Soviet / Warsaw pact countries become undefended so they will be naked tó Russian aggression! Putin wants to expand his dominance in northern Asia. 140m citizens is not enough; he wants to add 45m Ukrainians to have 185m! He is a colonial dictator in his homeland and does as he pleases!

ogogmad 5y ago

Ukraine was not going to join NATO, given that it's having an ongoing territorial dispute with Russia. But also, Russia's belief that it's entitled to decide for another sovereign country which clubs it can and cannot join reveals what Russia's actual intentions were. [EDIT: The relevant club for Ukraine is actually the European Union.] The so-called "anti-Imperialists" on the far left like George Galloway who have always seen NATO as the enemy, and have always supported anti-NATO countries like Russia, Iran, Venezuela and China with 95% of their throats, have a really odd understanding of what imperialism is. Is this war the most blatant, non-galaxy-brained instance of "imperialism" that we've seen in many of our lifetimes?

ssijak 5y ago
Are you naive enough in the thinking that US is not doing the same or even worse than Russia (because US reach is much bigger)? Influencing, blackmailing and toppling governments they deem not cooperative enough.
- me_me_me 5y ago
  Who the fuck cares what US did/does, its completely separate matter. Just because US is warmongering doesn't mean russia can too.
  - ssijak 5y ago
    "Who the fuck cares what US did/does" that is the exact mentality that get us in this kind of situations. I did not say Russia can, nobody should be able to do that. I'm just saying that the next time US warmongers and plans to destroy another country, that we in the "west" should sound the same outcry we are doing now.
    - me_me_me 5y ago
      The next time around people like you will be complaining about 'how come russia invaded ukraine and it was ok' so how come conflict x is suddenly not ok. This kind of argument only derails conversations and doesn't achieve anything.

JGM_io 5y ago

Also nato not expanding towards russian borders even after promising it wouldn't by james baker, 1990[1] [1] https://ibb.co/xgqRWG3 https://ibb.co/xgqRWG3

HstryrsrBttn 5y ago
dncornholio 5y ago
32 years ago some guy thought he could make this decision for half of Europe. I'm so shocked! NATO seems a real threat! Look at how the NATO oppresses their people, bring no economic growth and just made the countries so much worse to live in!

trhway 5y ago

>Saying "Ukraine will remain neutral and will not join NATO" would have stopped this war. >It's an unpopular fact but it's still true. absolutely not. The events of the last few days show exactly why Ukraine was right to want to join NATO. Ukraine knows Russia probably better than anybody else in the world. If anything Ukraine's refusal to promise neutrality is just a convenient - in Russian view - excuse for the invasion. Blaming Ukraine like you do is just a victim blaming.

anonAndOn 5y ago

If your partner wants to break up with you and date other people because you're an ass and offer nothing they want, who are you to stop them? If Ukraine wants to break up with Russia and join other alliances because it's an ass and offers nothing Ukraine wants, who is Russia to stop it?

dncornholio 5y ago

That's basically the same as saying if Puting wasn't president, the war wouldn't happened. True but meaningless. A country should decide what it does and should not rely on another country's approval.

mvc 5y ago

Maybe, maybe not, but who do you think has the right or power to declare that Ukraine will remain neutral?

jacquesm 5y ago

It's impopular because it isn't true. And yet you keep repeating it in thread after thread.

indymike 5y ago

> It's an unpopular fact but it's still true. This is not a fact. It is at best an educated and optimistic opinion.

CRConrad 5y ago
> It is at best an educated and optimistic opinion. Not even that. It is at best an uneducated and wildly optimistic opinion.

me_me_me 5y ago

Unpopular opinion. Russia agreed to respect Ukrainian territory if they give up their nuclear arsenal. Maybe before russia starts demanding something they should first keep their promises first