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> Does Putin strike you as an overly emotional guy who gets frustrated easily? He's a hardliner, I would not say that he could be frustrated easily but this ab

> Does Putin strike you as an overly emotional guy who gets frustrated easily? He's a hardliner, I would not say that he could be frustrated easily but this absolutely is not an easy situation. His currency has collapsed and his country is on the brink of defaulting on foreign debt. He has no support anywhere but from his puppet dictator Lukashenko. I think Putin did not expect such coordination and global effort in sanctioning Russia over Ukraine invasion. I believe that he wanted to take over Ukraine in just a few days and was surprised by Ukraine's defence and multiple desertions in his own army. He has decisions to make and choices are poor.

pengaru 5y ago
> I believe that he wanted to take over Ukraine in just a few days and was surprised by Ukraine's defence and multiple desertions in his own army. Everything I have read that isn't heavily biased anti-Russia propaganda says Russia has exercised enormous restraint so far in this invasion. There's no reason I see to believe Putin's been surprised by Ukraine's defenses, it's not as if all of Russia's forces at the border have been deployed and overwhelmed. Last I read not even half had mobilized. It's more like Putin pushed forward what he hoped was enough to compel a low-casualty outcome in his favor. What happens next seems likely to be substantially more painful for the Ukrainians, but I hope I'm wrong.
- Ajef 5y ago
  While I mostly agree with your assessment you lack to point out that using less troops saves costs, bombing less cities/civilians will make installing a controllable regime to rule there easier. These are all strategic decisions. Implying Putin held back for the sake of the ukranian people is misleading.
  - tomp 5y ago
    He definitely held back for the sake of civilians. Otherwise we wouldn’t have videos of civilians stopping tanks.
    - Ourgon 5y ago
      That is more due to those tanks being driven by human beings than any restraint from the leadership. You can tell your tankers to ignore any civilians lying prostrate before their tracks but that does not mean they'll just follow orders - and thank ${deity} for this.
- KptMarchewa 5y ago
  Iskander missles and Smerch rockets hitting residential buildings and killing hundreds of civilians is restraint? I hope you'll never have to deal with Russia's restraint.
  - CapricornNoble 5y ago
    >>>Iskander missles and Smerch rockets hitting residential buildings and killing hundreds of civilians is restraint? By Russian standards? Yes. Absolutely. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grozny_ballistic_missile_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grozny_ballistic_missile_attac... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis https://airwars.org/conflict/russian-military-in-syria/ https://airwars.org/conflict/russian-military-in-syria/
- celticninja 5y ago
  Well its up to 2/3 of the forces he had at the border are now committed within Ukraine. And he has had to ask for help from Belarus. One thing that has been noted is the poor equipment, with vehicles being abandoned. However yesterday I saw a video of Russian MREs that had been captured, they had a use by date of 2015. And today I saw video of some Russian POWs in WWII helmets. This leads to 2 options: 1) He has sent in his shit soldiers and equipment first, to sacrifice it and wear down Ukrainian forces. 2) All of his equipment and soldiers are of equal shitness. If it is 1, then he could not have expected a quick win in Ukraine if he was sending in sacrificial troops first. If he did expect a quick win then 2 is the most likely option. However this raises the question about his air force, they have not been involved and would surely have made a huge difference to their objectives. So again there are a few main reasons: 1) They are not as good as they should be (some reports of pilots having around 100 hours annual flight time, vs RAF and US Air Force where they pilots complain that less than 200 flight hours per year is not enough to remain combat ready). 2) He needs the for stage 2 of the plan which would mean fighting NATO when he tries to invade Poland or other neigbouring Baltic state (There is no way he can get his forces from Ukraine to Finland without Finland having lots of notice and preparing... posssibly by joining NATO anyway) 3) It might be “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” If his air force flew and we saw they were in as much dissaray as his land troops there goes any concern over Russian air superiority.

pengaru 5y ago

> I believe that he wanted to take over Ukraine in just a few days and was surprised by Ukraine's defence and multiple desertions in his own army. Everything I have read that isn't heavily biased anti-Russia propaganda says Russia has exercised enormous restraint so far in this invasion. There's no reason I see to believe Putin's been surprised by Ukraine's defenses, it's not as if all of Russia's forces at the border have been deployed and overwhelmed. Last I read not even half had mobilized. It's more like Putin pushed forward what he hoped was enough to compel a low-casualty outcome in his favor. What happens next seems likely to be substantially more painful for the Ukrainians, but I hope I'm wrong.

Ajef 5y ago
While I mostly agree with your assessment you lack to point out that using less troops saves costs, bombing less cities/civilians will make installing a controllable regime to rule there easier. These are all strategic decisions. Implying Putin held back for the sake of the ukranian people is misleading.
- tomp 5y ago
  He definitely held back for the sake of civilians. Otherwise we wouldn’t have videos of civilians stopping tanks.
  - Ourgon 5y ago
    That is more due to those tanks being driven by human beings than any restraint from the leadership. You can tell your tankers to ignore any civilians lying prostrate before their tracks but that does not mean they'll just follow orders - and thank ${deity} for this.
KptMarchewa 5y ago
Iskander missles and Smerch rockets hitting residential buildings and killing hundreds of civilians is restraint? I hope you'll never have to deal with Russia's restraint.
- CapricornNoble 5y ago
  >>>Iskander missles and Smerch rockets hitting residential buildings and killing hundreds of civilians is restraint? By Russian standards? Yes. Absolutely. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grozny_ballistic_missile_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grozny_ballistic_missile_attac... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis https://airwars.org/conflict/russian-military-in-syria/ https://airwars.org/conflict/russian-military-in-syria/
celticninja 5y ago
Well its up to 2/3 of the forces he had at the border are now committed within Ukraine. And he has had to ask for help from Belarus. One thing that has been noted is the poor equipment, with vehicles being abandoned. However yesterday I saw a video of Russian MREs that had been captured, they had a use by date of 2015. And today I saw video of some Russian POWs in WWII helmets. This leads to 2 options: 1) He has sent in his shit soldiers and equipment first, to sacrifice it and wear down Ukrainian forces. 2) All of his equipment and soldiers are of equal shitness. If it is 1, then he could not have expected a quick win in Ukraine if he was sending in sacrificial troops first. If he did expect a quick win then 2 is the most likely option. However this raises the question about his air force, they have not been involved and would surely have made a huge difference to their objectives. So again there are a few main reasons: 1) They are not as good as they should be (some reports of pilots having around 100 hours annual flight time, vs RAF and US Air Force where they pilots complain that less than 200 flight hours per year is not enough to remain combat ready). 2) He needs the for stage 2 of the plan which would mean fighting NATO when he tries to invade Poland or other neigbouring Baltic state (There is no way he can get his forces from Ukraine to Finland without Finland having lots of notice and preparing... posssibly by joining NATO anyway) 3) It might be “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” If his air force flew and we saw they were in as much dissaray as his land troops there goes any concern over Russian air superiority.