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I'm not convinced we'll ever see an end to the chip shortage while proof-of-waste crypto exists. The interesting part of all this is that one company (ASML) wo

by jmyeet 5y ago

I'm not convinced we'll ever see an end to the chip shortage while proof-of-waste crypto exists. The interesting part of all this is that one company (ASML) won out in the race to build the machines for EUV lithography so for the cutting edge processes like TSMC's 5nm (and I assume 3nm?) the chipmakers rely on a monopoly where demand currently exceeds supply. Now for GPUs and a lot of CPUs I see the obvious advantages of a smaller process: smaller chips, less power usage, less heat dissipation (although this is all complicated). What I don't understand is how older processes can't be used for things where this of primary concern. Cars have a lot of control units in them but I don't believe they all needs the billions of transistors a Ryzen does. Couldn't older processes like 14nm and 22nm be used to make these just fine? This isn't my field but I'm also led to believe that a new process basically means an entirely new fab (vs retrofitting an old fab). Whatever the changes required are it's almost from the ground up except perhaps the shell of the building. If true a lot of these old processes must still exist right?

samus 5y ago
The old processes still exist and are cheap^H^H^H^H^H quite affordable, but only because the cost was amortized long ago and now the equipment is just milked for profit until quality control becomes too difficult. Building them anew is possible, but takes significant investment and time. Which about sums up the issue: many important items in semiconductor engineering have inelastic supply. Fabs depend on reliable deals with industry customers years ahead, and during Covid they got badly burned on that front by car makers, and now the money flood is unleashed again on the market, but the market can't provide (yet).
whazor 5y ago
ASML is still selling (and ofc maintaining) older generation machines. They also refurbishing the generations before that and still giving them customized upgrades for example for making radio frequency chips, LEDs. So yes, these processes still exist and are also out of capacity. At first this was strange to me: why all fabs out of capacity from low to mid to high... But I guess it is similar to a housing market, where for example rich people want to live in bigger houses but overall price is roughly per square meter impacting the entire market. There must also be some chips who are okay with every resolution as long as they can book a slot somewhere. I can also imagine some chips even though they don't require the latest fabs do have much more value than AMD CPU/GPU.
hef19898 5y ago
Depends on what you understand under "shortage". Before Covid, GPUs were expensive, sure. They also had longer lead times, you did get them so, even as a consumer. And if you were somewhat flexible with the actual GPU, you didn't face a lot of issues. Industrial supply, say for automotive, was never at risk. Now, industrial supply is lacking. That is a shortage. Crypto is only increasing overall demand and driving prices up for consumers. That shortage, it seems according to industry experts, will be over.

by jmyeet 5y ago

samus 5y ago

The old processes still exist and are cheap^H^H^H^H^H quite affordable, but only because the cost was amortized long ago and now the equipment is just milked for profit until quality control becomes too difficult. Building them anew is possible, but takes significant investment and time. Which about sums up the issue: many important items in semiconductor engineering have inelastic supply. Fabs depend on reliable deals with industry customers years ahead, and during Covid they got badly burned on that front by car makers, and now the money flood is unleashed again on the market, but the market can't provide (yet).

whazor 5y ago

ASML is still selling (and ofc maintaining) older generation machines. They also refurbishing the generations before that and still giving them customized upgrades for example for making radio frequency chips, LEDs. So yes, these processes still exist and are also out of capacity. At first this was strange to me: why all fabs out of capacity from low to mid to high... But I guess it is similar to a housing market, where for example rich people want to live in bigger houses but overall price is roughly per square meter impacting the entire market. There must also be some chips who are okay with every resolution as long as they can book a slot somewhere. I can also imagine some chips even though they don't require the latest fabs do have much more value than AMD CPU/GPU.

hef19898 5y ago

Depends on what you understand under "shortage". Before Covid, GPUs were expensive, sure. They also had longer lead times, you did get them so, even as a consumer. And if you were somewhat flexible with the actual GPU, you didn't face a lot of issues. Industrial supply, say for automotive, was never at risk. Now, industrial supply is lacking. That is a shortage. Crypto is only increasing overall demand and driving prices up for consumers. That shortage, it seems according to industry experts, will be over.