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The "Soviet surprise attack" model was always a joke. I can't believe people don't see that. If nukes are used in this war, almost certainly the first ones drop

The "Soviet surprise attack" model was always a joke. I can't believe people don't see that. If nukes are used in this war, almost certainly the first ones dropped will be warning shots, detonated underwater or in an uninhabited desert. Just to let the world know that you're serious. There would be plenty of time to try to get away from the major cities and military bases. Of course, those of us who aren't millionaires won't be able to get a plane ticket. But hey, that's capitalism.

jillesvangurp 5y ago
I live about 1300km away from Kiev in Berlin. Any fallout cloud might head my way if the winds are from that direction. Putin is right now leveling cities with heavy artillery and massacring civilians at a scale not seen since WW II in Europe. So, the chances are he'd actually use a small nuclear weapon to make the point that the Americans are not the only ones who get to level cities with nukes (Nagasaki, Hiroshima). The main point of those attacks was to bomb the Japanese into submission. It worked. All of the obvious targets for a Russian nuclear attack are cities in the Ukraine. It doesn't have any deserts. It's not a NATO member and his issues are with the Ukrainians and getting the rest of the of the world off his back. Such an attack wouldn't trigger any immediate retaliation from any NATO country. A first strike on the US or NATO member on the other hand would be suicidal as it pretty much would guarantee at least a response in kind and probably more. However, taking out Kiev or a smaller city elsewhere in the Ukraine, would be a desperate move of course but he might get away with it and it would probably lead to capitulation by the Ukrainians. If he goes there, most of Europe is going to be worrying about fallout. Chernobyl fallout is still a thing in some places. A full nuclear blast, even a small one, might produce a lot more of it. Scary thing that such a thing is even conceivable right now.
allturtles 5y ago
Where are you imagining that all the people in the cities would go, and how would they get there? You should look at what the partial evacuation of Houston from Hurricane Rita was like [0]. It took people over a day to get to Dallas. And that was just one city partially emptying, mostly going to other cities. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita#Mass_evacuation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita#Mass_evacuation

jillesvangurp 5y ago

I live about 1300km away from Kiev in Berlin. Any fallout cloud might head my way if the winds are from that direction. Putin is right now leveling cities with heavy artillery and massacring civilians at a scale not seen since WW II in Europe. So, the chances are he'd actually use a small nuclear weapon to make the point that the Americans are not the only ones who get to level cities with nukes (Nagasaki, Hiroshima). The main point of those attacks was to bomb the Japanese into submission. It worked. All of the obvious targets for a Russian nuclear attack are cities in the Ukraine. It doesn't have any deserts. It's not a NATO member and his issues are with the Ukrainians and getting the rest of the of the world off his back. Such an attack wouldn't trigger any immediate retaliation from any NATO country. A first strike on the US or NATO member on the other hand would be suicidal as it pretty much would guarantee at least a response in kind and probably more. However, taking out Kiev or a smaller city elsewhere in the Ukraine, would be a desperate move of course but he might get away with it and it would probably lead to capitulation by the Ukrainians. If he goes there, most of Europe is going to be worrying about fallout. Chernobyl fallout is still a thing in some places. A full nuclear blast, even a small one, might produce a lot more of it. Scary thing that such a thing is even conceivable right now.

allturtles 5y ago

Where are you imagining that all the people in the cities would go, and how would they get there? You should look at what the partial evacuation of Houston from Hurricane Rita was like [0]. It took people over a day to get to Dallas. And that was just one city partially emptying, mostly going to other cities. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita#Mass_evacuation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rita#Mass_evacuation