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He is talking about the sanctions. Less than <1% of revenue of SP500 is derived from Russia so US isn't directly affected by any of the sanctions in any way. Th
by jpgvm 5y ago
He is talking about the sanctions. Less than <1% of revenue of SP500 is derived from Russia so US isn't directly affected by any of the sanctions in any way. They are indirectly affected by the impact on the price of commodities (which also affects China more than the US) so overall this whole sanctions situation is mostly fine for the USA.
With the caveat that China will export all that extra inflation to them which will exacerbate the domestic problems Biden faces.
If however China was to invade Taiwan and US/EU were forced to impose sanctions on them then you can basically expect a financial nuclear winter, everyone will be in pain, US most of all. China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets (which it could adapt to especially if Russia remains an ally) while the US is heavily import dependent from China (hence the whole trade imbalance/surplus that Trump was bitching about).
TLDR: No one currently cares about Russia sanctions except Europe. The world can't afford Chinese sanctions.
- philliphaydon 5y ago> China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets China depends a lot on importing food, especially meat. The two most essential things they need. Food and Energy. And they currently struggle with both.
- jpgvm 5y agoThis is true but their biggest food trading partner is actually Brazil (second biggest is US though...) which would decline to impose sanctions on China. This is because Brazils economy is highly reliant not just on food exports to China but also iron ore. They have already declined to impose sanctions on Russia because of their reliance on Russia for raw materials and fertilizer.
- philliphaydon 5y agoAny shipments may end up being blocked by Japan because they would need to go between Japan and Taiwan to get to China. During the conflict it will be delayed and risky. Lets just hope none of this ever happens. I live in Taiwan at the moment. I just want to enjoy life with my family.
- astrange 5y agoSuch immediate sanctions are still pretty risky even with Russia’s small economy; you don’t know how leveraged someone’s investments there can be. It could also lead to them becoming a client state of China, though I don’t think that’s their style.