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> I'm still excited about the LIDAR possibilities but vision alone has done a remarkable job. Not for Tesla. So many interventions. So many situations where th

> I'm still excited about the LIDAR possibilities but vision alone has done a remarkable job. Not for Tesla. So many interventions. So many situations where the car actively tries to kill the driver and pedestrians.

onethought 5y ago
But it's not finished. Have you asked Cruise testers how many interventions they have had to do in equivalent drives as Tesla FSD Beta? It's strange to me that Tesla who are building this in the open are criticised for being dishonest. Meanwhile ALL the competitors are closed door private development and some how we should trust them more? In an industry that is known for deceitful behaviour.
- waffle_maniac 5y ago
  > Last year, Waymo logged 29,945 autonomous miles between reported disengagements. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169984987942913 https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169984987942913 > Cruise drove 41,719 miles in autonomous mode per disengagement. > Waymo drove 2.36 million miles autonomously with one accident that was the vehicle's fault. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1495801454111727616 https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1495801454111727616
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    And how many of those can be turned on on literally any street in the US?
    - waffle_maniac 5y ago
      A high rate of interventions is virtually GEO-fenced to only highways and not cities.
  - onethought 5y ago
    Q4 Tesla Safety Report[0]: > In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in > which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety > features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and > active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. That's 1 quarter and the numbers dwarf the combined total of all the competition. It's also a safety report they put out every quarter rather than an adhoc tweet. How many crashes have occurred on FSD Beta? 0. [1] [0] https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/VehicleSafetyReport [1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1482817514476347392 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1482817514476347392
- AlotOfReading 5y ago
  I'm not sure what you consider open about Tesla's approach. The fact that you can run updates without a license or any clue about what's changed or how it will perform in your area is exactly the issue! Tesla goes out of their way to avoid publishing actual metrics for safety, even useless ones like the annual DMV reports. Waymo, cruise etc aren't much better in public, but maybe it's a small comfort to know there are advocates internally (myself included) at all of these to publish that data? Qualitatively, there's no comparison between them. Waymo and cruise are today more than capable of autonomy without a driver in certain circumstances. Tesla still has trouble staying in the lane and doesn't define an ODD or even claim L4 for fair comparison. For background, I've been in waymo and cruise' vehicles, and ridden with AP. I've only seen FSD in video form.
  - onethought 5y ago
    Sorry you are misrepresenting things a lot. Tesla publish autopilot data every year. Crashes per mile with AP, without AP, and with Safety assistance features, and show consistent improvement of AP. What do the competitors publish? You are comparing AP (a traffic aware lane keeping cruise control system) to Waymo (a driverless taxi)? How about FSD Beta vs Waymo how has your experience been there? By "in public" I mean I can go on YouTube and look up "FSD beta version 8", and "FSD version 10" and see hundreds of videos comparing both unplanned and repeated routes and see improvements and regressions. If I'm in the US I can even get the software myself and try it out (after hurdles)... how much more public could they do it?
    - adrr 5y ago
      All the self driving car data is public in California. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/disengagement-reports/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto... I would love to see disengagement reports for autopilot and FSD. I can't go more than 50 miles without having to takeover for autopilot. Like hitting the gas when it phantom brakes. You can't even use autopilot at night any more due phantom braking issues. I don't even use Navigate on autopilot because it literally tried to kill me on multiple occasions by trying to change lanes into a concrete barrier. Want to see funny. Use smart summon. I wish i could use smart summon and my phones video at the same time.

onethought 5y ago

But it's not finished. Have you asked Cruise testers how many interventions they have had to do in equivalent drives as Tesla FSD Beta? It's strange to me that Tesla who are building this in the open are criticised for being dishonest. Meanwhile ALL the competitors are closed door private development and some how we should trust them more? In an industry that is known for deceitful behaviour.

waffle_maniac 5y ago
> Last year, Waymo logged 29,945 autonomous miles between reported disengagements. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169984987942913 https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169984987942913 > Cruise drove 41,719 miles in autonomous mode per disengagement. > Waymo drove 2.36 million miles autonomously with one accident that was the vehicle's fault. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1495801454111727616 https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1495801454111727616
- panick21_ 5y ago
  And how many of those can be turned on on literally any street in the US?
  - waffle_maniac 5y ago
    A high rate of interventions is virtually GEO-fenced to only highways and not cities.
- onethought 5y ago
  Q4 Tesla Safety Report[0]: > In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in > which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety > features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and > active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. That's 1 quarter and the numbers dwarf the combined total of all the competition. It's also a safety report they put out every quarter rather than an adhoc tweet. How many crashes have occurred on FSD Beta? 0. [1] [0] https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/VehicleSafetyReport [1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1482817514476347392 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1482817514476347392
AlotOfReading 5y ago
I'm not sure what you consider open about Tesla's approach. The fact that you can run updates without a license or any clue about what's changed or how it will perform in your area is exactly the issue! Tesla goes out of their way to avoid publishing actual metrics for safety, even useless ones like the annual DMV reports. Waymo, cruise etc aren't much better in public, but maybe it's a small comfort to know there are advocates internally (myself included) at all of these to publish that data? Qualitatively, there's no comparison between them. Waymo and cruise are today more than capable of autonomy without a driver in certain circumstances. Tesla still has trouble staying in the lane and doesn't define an ODD or even claim L4 for fair comparison. For background, I've been in waymo and cruise' vehicles, and ridden with AP. I've only seen FSD in video form.
- onethought 5y ago
  Sorry you are misrepresenting things a lot. Tesla publish autopilot data every year. Crashes per mile with AP, without AP, and with Safety assistance features, and show consistent improvement of AP. What do the competitors publish? You are comparing AP (a traffic aware lane keeping cruise control system) to Waymo (a driverless taxi)? How about FSD Beta vs Waymo how has your experience been there? By "in public" I mean I can go on YouTube and look up "FSD beta version 8", and "FSD version 10" and see hundreds of videos comparing both unplanned and repeated routes and see improvements and regressions. If I'm in the US I can even get the software myself and try it out (after hurdles)... how much more public could they do it?
  - adrr 5y ago
    All the self driving car data is public in California. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/disengagement-reports/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto... I would love to see disengagement reports for autopilot and FSD. I can't go more than 50 miles without having to takeover for autopilot. Like hitting the gas when it phantom brakes. You can't even use autopilot at night any more due phantom braking issues. I don't even use Navigate on autopilot because it literally tried to kill me on multiple occasions by trying to change lanes into a concrete barrier. Want to see funny. Use smart summon. I wish i could use smart summon and my phones video at the same time.