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All of this past week's events show that John Mearsheimer was wrong - way wrong. In 2015 John Mearsheimer claimed that Putin did not want to invade the Ukraine

All of this past week's events show that John Mearsheimer was wrong - way wrong. In 2015 John Mearsheimer claimed that Putin did not want to invade the Ukraine nor did Putin want to re-establish the old Soviet empire. His reasoning was Putin was too smart for that - Putin had seen how the invasion of Afghanistan didn't go well for the Soviets, or for the Americans for that matter. Granted, I say John Mearsheimer was wrong in 2015 with the hindsight of 20/20 vision. I haven't seen where he has made any public statements since the invasion started. Now we know that Putin fully intended to invade the Ukraine and institute regime change, not just "free" Donbas and Luhansk. Putin has also indicated he wants to re-establish the old Soviet Union as much as possible. I'm not attacking John Mearsheimer. I too thought Putin was way smarter than this. Frankly I'm shocked by what's happening, but most of all I'm shocked and surprised by Putin's short-sightedness and stupidity. I'm sure John Mearsheimer did his analysis believing he was dealing with a rational actor. Now we know otherwise.

eezurr 5y ago
John Mearsheimer was working with the facts he had available at the time, clearly. You even hint at that yourself. Seven years is a long time for change in a dynamic environment. One thing I am aware of: - Ukraine sealed the canal that delivered 85% of Crimea's fresh water supply, so it's been more costly to keep Crimea with each passing year. >I haven't seen where he has made any public statements since the invasion started. It's been five days, hardly enough time to gather information on the environment and put together a research paper on it. Also, a wrong conclusion does not mean the underlying research or thesis is wrong.
Beltalowda 5y ago
> In 2015 John Mearsheimer claimed that Putin did not want to invade the Ukraine nor did Putin want to re-establish the old Soviet empire. Note that could have been true in 2015; what Putin wants can change over time. At any rate, I watched that video some months ago, but from I recall Mearsheimer's point was that this kind of response is rational when reasoned from Putin's interests and worldview. I don't recall he said there would never be a war, and IIRC actually warned against a possible war (which we now have, albeit in a different shape than Mearsheimer thought in 2015).

eezurr 5y ago

John Mearsheimer was working with the facts he had available at the time, clearly. You even hint at that yourself. Seven years is a long time for change in a dynamic environment. One thing I am aware of: - Ukraine sealed the canal that delivered 85% of Crimea's fresh water supply, so it's been more costly to keep Crimea with each passing year. >I haven't seen where he has made any public statements since the invasion started. It's been five days, hardly enough time to gather information on the environment and put together a research paper on it. Also, a wrong conclusion does not mean the underlying research or thesis is wrong.

Beltalowda 5y ago

> In 2015 John Mearsheimer claimed that Putin did not want to invade the Ukraine nor did Putin want to re-establish the old Soviet empire. Note that could have been true in 2015; what Putin wants can change over time. At any rate, I watched that video some months ago, but from I recall Mearsheimer's point was that this kind of response is rational when reasoned from Putin's interests and worldview. I don't recall he said there would never be a war, and IIRC actually warned against a possible war (which we now have, albeit in a different shape than Mearsheimer thought in 2015).