Yes. He has no basis for that belief. The three points you've raised in clarification on his behalf are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive over the entir

Yes. He has no basis for that belief. The three points you've raised in clarification on his behalf are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive over the entirety of the probability space. He is pulling "very close to" out of thin air, in complete disregard for rigorous evidence borne of the scientific method.