6 ms·

The speed, severity, and coordination of the west's response to this has been truly remarkable. Putin must be completely shocked at how this has played out. I

The speed, severity, and coordination of the west's response to this has been truly remarkable. Putin must be completely shocked at how this has played out. I expect China to be taking notes and wouldn't be surprised to see them reign in their 'wolf warriors' and claw back their aggressive posturing once the dust settles. The "Taiwan issue" just became a lot more complicated for them.

bmmayer1 5y ago
I'd go one step further: I wouldn't be surprised if China goaded Putin into this specifically to test the West's response without direct exposure.
- hutrdvnj 5y ago
  I agree. Putin could be China's crash test dummy, to see what would happen in case they would invade Taiwan. I think the crash test didn't pass.
seanp2k2 5y ago
Yep; was just reading https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isolation-grows-china-hints-at-limits-of-friendship https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isola... this AM.
- nosianu 5y ago
  > [Cheng-Yun Tsang, an expert in financial regulation at National Chengchi University in Taiwan] said Beijing’s moves to distance itself from Moscow appeared mostly symbolic, inflicting little actual pain on the Russian economy. After reading that link, that seems to be a pretty accurate summary, when adding that > China also relies heavily on the SWIFT system. These facts might well lead China to a somewhat prudent move when it comes to providing financing with Russia, as jeopardising its own ability to transact in US dollars would never be a good idea. So that they are cautious to > comply with the letter of the law, but in my opinion, not the spirit of the law [Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong] > Gary Ng, an Asia economist at Natixis, said the current sanctions regime gives China considerable room to continue legitimate trade with Russia. It's tough because the sanctions are meant to be bad enough but not so bad that alternative systems start to benefit too much, reducing Western - and US-$ - influence in the long run.
amriksohata 5y ago
Playing devils advocate here, what severity exactly? Putin is still going well into Ukraine, will probably annex many sections of it. I am not saying Russia will be unscathed but Gas and all that means....
- system16 5y ago
  Give it a few days. When their economy is in shambles and there is chaos at home, their focus is going to have to shift from Ukraine.
- enkid 5y ago
  Russia is about to default on their debt. The Ruble is worthless. ATM's are running out of cash. They aren't allow to buy microchips anymore. They've had 1000's of casualties and lost hundreds of pieces of military equipment. Russia has arrested thousands of protestors in a country that had mostly given up on large-scale protests. This is not good for Putin, even if Ukraine gives up tomorrow.
  - newaccount2021 5y ago
- duxup 5y ago
  > Putin is still going well into Ukrain They’re advancing but I think the general impression is everyone expected the Russians to make way more progress vs a far “weaker” foe. Abandoned vehicles, no air superiority…. I’m short they look weak even while advancing.
  - amriksohata 5y ago
    I have always been skeptical about the info war machine on both sides regarding this. It took about ten days for the Taliban to retake over most cities without real resistance. Ukraine is far better equipped though small compared to the Russian army. Our guage of Russian progress will be very different to theirs. They might not even be expecting a full take over for weeks
duxup 5y ago
Lots of talk about weakening NATO and division washed away pretty fast. I wonder if Putin and Co believed their own BS? China, I wonder if they were caught off guard by it, the war, the response, or even just Russian performance in the war. China’s statements have been evolving quickly.
- ModernMech 5y ago
  > I wonder if Putin and Co believed their own BS? Of course they did, that's how narcissistic psychopaths like Putin operate. And just to be clear it doesn't matter what "and Co" think, it only matters what Putin thinks. At this point he's surrounded himself with enough lickspittles and sycophants that he never hears the truth. Think about this from Putin's perspective. Putin invaded Georgia and the world did nothing. Putin invaded Crimea and the world did nothing. Putin interfered in the American election in 2016 and not only did the world do nothing, the US party he helped actually shifted their foreign policy to be more pro Russia at the expense of Ukraine [1]. Trump stood next to Putin and in front of the world told us that he believed Putin's account of 2016, that it was Ukraine, not Russia, who interfered in the election. Republicans defended Trump and by extension Putin at all levels for this. The official party line morphed from the idea that Ukraine interfered to the idea that the interference and hacking was all a hoax that we imagined[2], again helping Putin. Why wouldn't Putin think that 50% of American politicians would support his invasion of Ukraine? Trump's first impeachment was over Trump attempting to extort a bribe from President Zelinksy by withholding diplomatic relations, which at the time the new Zelinsky administration was hoping to use to bolster their legitimacy; and Javelin missiles, which thankfully the Ukrainians now have because they are using them to great effect against Russian armored vehicles. So yeah, Putin probably felt pretty safe going into Ukraine. He probably felt like 50% of the United States political establishment would back him up and cause a complete gridlock for the US trying to muster a response, because they have been on his side since 2016. And he's not wrong, up until last week they were calling him "savvy" and "smart" for gaslighting the world about a Nazi genocide being conducted by Zelinsky! That was before the war crimes so a lot of them have changed their tune, but the song they were singing before was exactly what Putin wanted to hear. He's definitely high on his own supply. [1] https://www.npr.org/2017/12/04/568310790/2016-rnc-delegate-trump-directed-change-to-party-platform-on-ukraine-support https://www.npr.org/2017/12/04/568310790/2016-rnc-delegate-t... [2] And if at long last you still believe it was a hoax, just remember that the loudest voices calling it a hoax for 6 years were just last week calling Putin savvy and that he would never invade Ukraine. They were were dumbstruck when Putin invaded (Tabbi, Greenwald, looking at you). Completely floored. So maybe some people need to take a step back and reassess who are credible voices when it comes to Putin and Russia. To see what Putin was doing over the last month and to conclude that he didn't intend to invade reveals a stark ignorance about Putin and Russia, so really why should we listen to them ever again on this topic? Also read the Muller report and Senate Intel report on these issues, because they're indisputable at this point.
BillSaysThis 5y ago
I hope you're correct but one big difference is that cutting off trade with China would also cripple our economy, just look at what happened last year with the pandemic-induced supply chain problems.
- zucked 5y ago
  Even that advantage is eroding over time. It obviously will take time, but there is a lot of onshoring happening. The west realizes what a mistake it was to outsource so much of the manufacturing and technology capacity to a singular entity.
  - ngcc_hk 5y ago
    Look at German and Russian oil and some will wake up on china
  - BillSaysThis 5y ago
    I hope you're right but that kind of change only means that the supply chain deterrent has an expiration date, incentivizing China to act before then.

bmmayer1 5y ago

I'd go one step further: I wouldn't be surprised if China goaded Putin into this specifically to test the West's response without direct exposure.

hutrdvnj 5y ago
I agree. Putin could be China's crash test dummy, to see what would happen in case they would invade Taiwan. I think the crash test didn't pass.

seanp2k2 5y ago

Yep; was just reading https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isolation-grows-china-hints-at-limits-of-friendship https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isola... this AM.

nosianu 5y ago
> [Cheng-Yun Tsang, an expert in financial regulation at National Chengchi University in Taiwan] said Beijing’s moves to distance itself from Moscow appeared mostly symbolic, inflicting little actual pain on the Russian economy. After reading that link, that seems to be a pretty accurate summary, when adding that > China also relies heavily on the SWIFT system. These facts might well lead China to a somewhat prudent move when it comes to providing financing with Russia, as jeopardising its own ability to transact in US dollars would never be a good idea. So that they are cautious to > comply with the letter of the law, but in my opinion, not the spirit of the law [Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong] > Gary Ng, an Asia economist at Natixis, said the current sanctions regime gives China considerable room to continue legitimate trade with Russia. It's tough because the sanctions are meant to be bad enough but not so bad that alternative systems start to benefit too much, reducing Western - and US-$ - influence in the long run.

amriksohata 5y ago

Playing devils advocate here, what severity exactly? Putin is still going well into Ukraine, will probably annex many sections of it. I am not saying Russia will be unscathed but Gas and all that means....

system16 5y ago
Give it a few days. When their economy is in shambles and there is chaos at home, their focus is going to have to shift from Ukraine.
enkid 5y ago
Russia is about to default on their debt. The Ruble is worthless. ATM's are running out of cash. They aren't allow to buy microchips anymore. They've had 1000's of casualties and lost hundreds of pieces of military equipment. Russia has arrested thousands of protestors in a country that had mostly given up on large-scale protests. This is not good for Putin, even if Ukraine gives up tomorrow.
- newaccount2021 5y ago
duxup 5y ago
> Putin is still going well into Ukrain They’re advancing but I think the general impression is everyone expected the Russians to make way more progress vs a far “weaker” foe. Abandoned vehicles, no air superiority…. I’m short they look weak even while advancing.
- amriksohata 5y ago
  I have always been skeptical about the info war machine on both sides regarding this. It took about ten days for the Taliban to retake over most cities without real resistance. Ukraine is far better equipped though small compared to the Russian army. Our guage of Russian progress will be very different to theirs. They might not even be expecting a full take over for weeks

duxup 5y ago

Lots of talk about weakening NATO and division washed away pretty fast. I wonder if Putin and Co believed their own BS? China, I wonder if they were caught off guard by it, the war, the response, or even just Russian performance in the war. China’s statements have been evolving quickly.

ModernMech 5y ago
> I wonder if Putin and Co believed their own BS? Of course they did, that's how narcissistic psychopaths like Putin operate. And just to be clear it doesn't matter what "and Co" think, it only matters what Putin thinks. At this point he's surrounded himself with enough lickspittles and sycophants that he never hears the truth. Think about this from Putin's perspective. Putin invaded Georgia and the world did nothing. Putin invaded Crimea and the world did nothing. Putin interfered in the American election in 2016 and not only did the world do nothing, the US party he helped actually shifted their foreign policy to be more pro Russia at the expense of Ukraine [1]. Trump stood next to Putin and in front of the world told us that he believed Putin's account of 2016, that it was Ukraine, not Russia, who interfered in the election. Republicans defended Trump and by extension Putin at all levels for this. The official party line morphed from the idea that Ukraine interfered to the idea that the interference and hacking was all a hoax that we imagined[2], again helping Putin. Why wouldn't Putin think that 50% of American politicians would support his invasion of Ukraine? Trump's first impeachment was over Trump attempting to extort a bribe from President Zelinksy by withholding diplomatic relations, which at the time the new Zelinsky administration was hoping to use to bolster their legitimacy; and Javelin missiles, which thankfully the Ukrainians now have because they are using them to great effect against Russian armored vehicles. So yeah, Putin probably felt pretty safe going into Ukraine. He probably felt like 50% of the United States political establishment would back him up and cause a complete gridlock for the US trying to muster a response, because they have been on his side since 2016. And he's not wrong, up until last week they were calling him "savvy" and "smart" for gaslighting the world about a Nazi genocide being conducted by Zelinsky! That was before the war crimes so a lot of them have changed their tune, but the song they were singing before was exactly what Putin wanted to hear. He's definitely high on his own supply. [1] https://www.npr.org/2017/12/04/568310790/2016-rnc-delegate-trump-directed-change-to-party-platform-on-ukraine-support https://www.npr.org/2017/12/04/568310790/2016-rnc-delegate-t... [2] And if at long last you still believe it was a hoax, just remember that the loudest voices calling it a hoax for 6 years were just last week calling Putin savvy and that he would never invade Ukraine. They were were dumbstruck when Putin invaded (Tabbi, Greenwald, looking at you). Completely floored. So maybe some people need to take a step back and reassess who are credible voices when it comes to Putin and Russia. To see what Putin was doing over the last month and to conclude that he didn't intend to invade reveals a stark ignorance about Putin and Russia, so really why should we listen to them ever again on this topic? Also read the Muller report and Senate Intel report on these issues, because they're indisputable at this point.

BillSaysThis 5y ago

I hope you're correct but one big difference is that cutting off trade with China would also cripple our economy, just look at what happened last year with the pandemic-induced supply chain problems.

zucked 5y ago
Even that advantage is eroding over time. It obviously will take time, but there is a lot of onshoring happening. The west realizes what a mistake it was to outsource so much of the manufacturing and technology capacity to a singular entity.
- ngcc_hk 5y ago
  Look at German and Russian oil and some will wake up on china
- BillSaysThis 5y ago
  I hope you're right but that kind of change only means that the supply chain deterrent has an expiration date, incentivizing China to act before then.