4 ms·

A lot of people have the unfortunate experience of being pressed for estimates and guesses only to be held to them as though they were 100% certain, and possibl

by mkr-hn 5y ago

A lot of people have the unfortunate experience of being pressed for estimates and guesses only to be held to them as though they were 100% certain, and possibly punished for being wrong.

kragen 5y ago
I think a "ballpark estimate" here means "between one hour and one month", not "between two and four days". That's more like second base than the ballpark. Ballpark estimates for software tasks are useful in situations like https://xkcd.com/1425/ https://xkcd.com/1425/: before ImageNet, determining whether a photo contained a bird really would have been a multi-year research project with uncertain success, while determining if EXIF places a photo within a national park was a relatively simple GIS query. But this is not obvious to muggle stakeholders. Of course, for things like bug fixes, scientific discoveries, and market research, often even estimation of that level of precision is unavailable. It's true that that can be infuriating, but that's just the way it is. Will this new model sell to a thousand customers or a billion? You can't tell in advance. Will this bug take five minutes or five months of effort to fix? You can't tell until you find the cause. When will we discover the next new class of antibiotics? It may already have happened or it may take a century.
- spaetzleesser 5y ago
  “Will this new model sell to a thousand customers or a billion? You can't tell in advance.” Very often you can know if it has a chance to be in the thousands or billions just by looking at the market size. Or you can estimate a possible size of installed base by looking at how many companies may be using your stuff.
  - kragen 5y ago
    Yeah, you can always put an upper bound on it. But that upper bound may be a billion, or a hundred billion, if you're launching a new cigarette.
whatshisface 5y ago
I have tried asking questions that are very clearly not ammunition for later gotchas ("Can you tell me about how many digits you think the number has?") but people associate numbers with precision and remain deeply hesitant even when I explain that their wild educated guess is probably better than my wild uneducated guess.

by mkr-hn 5y ago

A lot of people have the unfortunate experience of being pressed for estimates and guesses only to be held to them as though they were 100% certain, and possibly punished for being wrong.

kragen 5y ago

I think a "ballpark estimate" here means "between one hour and one month", not "between two and four days". That's more like second base than the ballpark. Ballpark estimates for software tasks are useful in situations like https://xkcd.com/1425/ https://xkcd.com/1425/: before ImageNet, determining whether a photo contained a bird really would have been a multi-year research project with uncertain success, while determining if EXIF places a photo within a national park was a relatively simple GIS query. But this is not obvious to muggle stakeholders. Of course, for things like bug fixes, scientific discoveries, and market research, often even estimation of that level of precision is unavailable. It's true that that can be infuriating, but that's just the way it is. Will this new model sell to a thousand customers or a billion? You can't tell in advance. Will this bug take five minutes or five months of effort to fix? You can't tell until you find the cause. When will we discover the next new class of antibiotics? It may already have happened or it may take a century.

spaetzleesser 5y ago
“Will this new model sell to a thousand customers or a billion? You can't tell in advance.” Very often you can know if it has a chance to be in the thousands or billions just by looking at the market size. Or you can estimate a possible size of installed base by looking at how many companies may be using your stuff.
- kragen 5y ago
  Yeah, you can always put an upper bound on it. But that upper bound may be a billion, or a hundred billion, if you're launching a new cigarette.

whatshisface 5y ago

I have tried asking questions that are very clearly not ammunition for later gotchas ("Can you tell me about how many digits you think the number has?") but people associate numbers with precision and remain deeply hesitant even when I explain that their wild educated guess is probably better than my wild uneducated guess.