3 ms·
Those are all good risk models/mechanisms you mention. But clearly the gamut of risks is unbounded. Human responses to those risks is not quite the same thing,
by nonrandomstring 5y ago
Those are all good risk models/mechanisms you mention. But clearly the
gamut of risks is unbounded. Human responses to those risks is not
quite the same thing, so your "because?" questions need more context.
> lose control over/ability to understand
What someone from the Union of Concerned Scientists once called
something like the "problem of the pulled-up ladder". I gave a talk on
this, and relating to Thomas Thwaites "Toaster Project" [1], on the
fact that we no longer have an education strategy that recognises that
one generation cannot hold the knowledge to reconstruct technological
society (100 years ago we could).
> Because limits to growth will force austerity?
Not necessarily, no. We've escaped Malthusian traps before, but
staying ahead of the curve gets more precarious as our failure
tolerances get tighter. For example fusion will be a positive step
change, but we might arrive at a point where near-unlimited energy is
still not sufficient to fix things (like a soil chemistry debt).
> complexity leads to incomprehensible stochastic risks?
Somewhat. We've always had that though. DDT, PFAS and Microplastics
kinda caught us with our pants down. We have to be careful getting
into Black Swan speculation. But in the cybersecurity realm _yes_, I
deeply believe that we are constructing systems that _will_ fail
catastrophically with almost total certainty. The focus then needs to
be on mitigation, resilience and maintaining contingent technologies.
I have said plenty on where I think the "cashless society" is leading.
At present it's the psychological/sociological issues that most
intrigue me - there's no doubt we're well into an era where we
recognise solutionism is making many things worse, and are
addicted/dependent, but don't have the psychological apparatus to
societally extricate from what are widely understood as harmful
courses of action.
How we'll solve that is one of the most interesting questions of the
century, I think.
[1] http://thetoasterproject.org/ http://thetoasterproject.org/