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As a Canadian who's currently driving a 9 year old Mazda 3, I'm waiting for the day it decides to call quits so I can move to an EV (9 isn't that old, so I'm ho
by luxurytent 5y ago
As a Canadian who's currently driving a 9 year old Mazda 3, I'm waiting for the day it decides to call quits so I can move to an EV (9 isn't that old, so I'm hopeful at least another 2-3 years)
That said, I wish there was a site that simply told me now's the right time to buy an EV. With supply chain issues, long waits for a new car, government rebates, and the influx of new inventory/models, it's hard to keep up when's the right time to transition!
- dwighttk 5y agoI bet it is good for another 10-11 years. Also it is always a good time to buy a new car* *according to ads
- stinos 5y agoI bet it is good for another 10-11 years. Indeed, and in reality it's probably better (as far as the planet goes) to keep on using the same car as long as possible because that means no new one has to be produced. Kinda hard to offset that with an EV even. At least I seem to recall that was the consensus but I cannot find where I got that. HN, I'd guess :)
- blisterpeanuts 5y agoI'm guessing in about a year. Supply chain problems, primarily chips but also some other parts, continue to plague auto manufacturing. In my industry (RFID), we're expecting the pipelines to unclog in about Q1 of '23 though we might see some relief before then. In late '22 there will likely be a wave of car buying, from pent-up demand, dumping lots of used cars on the market. Might be a good time to shop used. You might be able to find some good deals on used EV's (Leaf, Bolt, older Teslas).
- mrfusion 5y agoA coming car glut is almost as scary as the current shortage.
- londons_explore 5y agoThe car glut will be in non-EV's. There are a lot of buyers who don't care what type of car they have, and will buy an EV the moment they get cheaper than a gas car - therefore sucking up any glut.
- rootusrootus 5y agoThey're already cheaper, so I think it's primarily range anxiety that holds up most people from making the switch. Once you get comfortable with how the EV works and trust that it isn't lying about range, it's an easy choice. Especially so for anyone who keeps their cars a good long time.
- luxurytent 5y agoGood advice, noted. Thank you!
- bushbaba 5y agoIt seems non Tesla EVs deprecate quickly. If you just need a commuter car, or car for local shopping. They can be a great deal. For example a 2013 Nissan Leaf that gets ~70 miles of range can be bad for 6k.
- rootusrootus 5y agoI think it's too early to know how it will play out. In the past, non-Tesla EVs have all been compliance cars. The more recent batch of competitive EVs that go toe-to-toe with Tesla on features and performance probably won't depreciate anywhere near as fast as a Leaf.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago>For example a 2013 Nissan Leaf that gets ~70 miles of range can be bad for 6k. You need to be careful with old Leafs. 70 miles would very good, 30 is common.
- felipemnoa 5y agoI guess it depends a lot on the mileage but I know people with 20 year old Toyota Corollas with more than 200 thousand miles that are still going strong. No crazy maintenance costs either.
- mrfusion 5y agoOlder cars can work great but I just lose confidence in taking longer trips. If it’s statistically going to die soon I feel like there’s a large risk of getting stranded somewhere.
- Lascaille 5y ago>If it’s statistically going to die soon I feel like there’s a large risk of getting stranded somewhere. If you're in North America are you really going to be 'stranded' or just footing the cost of a one-way rental and waiting for the check from the junkyard which will almost certainly cover it?
- toomuchtodo 5y agoYou could be waiting for hours or overnight on the side of the US interstate (possibly in below freezin/0F temps) for a tow truck that may or may not show up. The salvage check may or may not cover the tow and replacement temporary transportation. A majority of Americans can't come up with $1000 for an emergency, which is somewhat close to the cost of a one way rental at the moment.
- oblio 5y agoTrue, but statistically the average HN user with a beat up car won't be a McDonald's employee buying the only car they can afford, but more likely someone working in tech that's aiming for FIRE or whatever they're calling it and saving a ton of money. Highly unlikely the average HNer can't come up with $1000 for an emergency (nota bene: for sure some can't, that why I didn't say "every HNer").
- belval 5y agoUsed to own a Mazda 3, with gas price going up you must be getting pretty close to a breakeven point to switch, depending on your commute.
- luxurytent 5y agoWe drive about 25km a day. So it's not terrible, but with gas prices, it's now noticeable!
- mrfusion 5y agoI’ve thought my next vehicle would be an EV since 1998. But next time for sure.
- dhosek 5y agoWith our last purchase, we went half-way and got the plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan (which replaced a Prius which replaced a Mazda 6 so it's been a continuous evolution). It's likely that the next car will be a full-on EV. Assuming you have an acceptable parking/charging solution available, a plug-in hybrid is a good option. The Chrysler uses gas more often in the winter to run the heater but even before the pandemic, we'd go a year on five tanks of gasoline (four of which were in the winter months).
- fuzzer37 5y agoI'm curious if you've run into any issues (Or worried about) cycling gas that long. I know that gas can "go bad" over the span of 6 months - 1 year. Do you ever intentionally run the gas, just so you can burn some and put new in?
- kingofboom 5y agoAfter a certain amount of time (and/or some other conditions) the Pacifica hybrid will go into "fuel and oil refresh mode" while you are driving and start using the fuel to run the engine.
- throwaway0a5e 5y agoIn a modern sealed automotive fuel tank gas isn't going bad in 6mo. Most fuel injected cars will run on years old gas well enough. Your lawn equipment with its poorly sealed fuel tank and carburetor is a different story.
- gwbas1c 5y agoIt has a pressurized gas tank. The way I found out about the Pacifica plug-in was when I rented a conventional one, and noticed that it also has a pressurized gas tank. I usually do a 180 mile round trip once a month in mine, so I don't need to worry about bad gas.
- hwillis 5y agoJust for the record- it only takes about 21k miles of driving (a year or two for most people) to release as much CO2 as the production of the battery for a long range Tesla Model 3. The standard range Model 3 comes in just under 16k miles. It seems to me like most people expect more. Also, I don't think EV prices have really changed that much. Chip shortages haven't really affected it. High gas prices and inflation are probably the only numbers you really need to worry about. https://www.oliver-krischer.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/English_Studie.pdf https://www.oliver-krischer.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/En... https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php The math: standard/long-range Model 3 batteries are 62 and 82 kWh. First link puts GHG byproducts of production at 75 kg/kWh- 4650 and 6150 kg. Mazda 3 gets 30 mpg combined and the second link gives 8.78 kg CO2 per gallon.
- gameswithgo 5y agoFor the co2 equivalency analysis you really need to compare the total GHG byproduct of the production of each entire car and their fuels. The EV has a battery which is energy intensive to produce, but some of that would also be required to build and engine/transmission etc. and extracting oil and turning it into gasoline and delivering it has GHG byproducts, as well as producing and delivering electricity.
- jakswa 5y agoUnion of Concerned Scientists still did the most in-depth analysis I've seen, and they agree with the ~6mo-18mo time period to offset the more-intensive manufacturing. And it's so old now that I think you can assume the transition to cleaner grids has progressed further in some cases. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/cleaner-cars-cradle-grave https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/cleaner-cars-cradle-grave
- exhilaration 5y agoThank you for that link. They've summarized their analysis into a YouTube video as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9m9WDxmSN8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9m9WDxmSN8
- gameswithgo 5y agoThe future always has the potential to be better but now is already very good, unless you have specific needs, like towing a big trailer long distances etc. Most people who own EVs have been loving them and working out well.
- mdorazio 5y agoFwiw, I work in the sector and track the TCO comparisons for business modeling. Unless there’s a major shift (ex. Resurgence of tax rebates), you’re looking at 2025-2026 being the sweet spot where EVs will have plentiful options and actually make sense financially for most people instead of keeping a used ICE car.
- rtkwe 5y agoRight now probably isn't because the car market is insane with dealers getting away with markups above sticker price because the market is so hot. Otherwise the tech seems to mostly be there the biggest issue is charging networks on longer trips. I've watched a few different videos that highlighted that other companies that rely on charging networks instead of going DIY like Tesla has have some issues with finding chargers in areas. It's a fixable problem but the people would often drive to a charger only to find it's a slow or broken charger and there was no way to know before they got there. (Or at least it wasn't easily visible in the navigation information like you can see with Teslas).
- hnburnsy 5y agoFYI, last month, 82% of new-car buyers paid more than sticker price. https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-brand-of-sticker-shock-hits-the-car-market-11645851648 https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-brand-of-sticker-shock-hi...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago*does not apply to Tesla.
- rtkwe 5y agoWell there's not really a sticker price vs dealer price for Teslas because they're not sold through the traditional dealer system (though they did bump the price up across the board late 2021). Also it's a tiny number of cars Tesla is ~2% of the US new car market despite their insane stock price.
- pantulis 5y agoI'm in a slightly different situation --my 2003 Ford Focus Mk1 is still puttering along very nicely with no major issues. I am only doing about 10k miles per year but I need 400 miles autonomy! For me the best next move is to wait for the car to give up the ghost in the road --just hoping I do not become a ghost inside it!
- stetrain 5y agoYou need 400 miles of range on a charge, even if fast chargers are frequent and available and could give you a useful charge in ~10-15 minutes?
- pantulis 5y agoSorry, it's only 330 miles, did miles/km conversion wrong ;) Yes, having the possibility of doing a fast charge in 10-15 minutes could do the trick. Still don't think the charger network is really that big here in Spain (what happens in Summer when everybody tries to charge their car in the same charging stations?)
- darkwater 5y agoDepending on where you live in Spain the situation can be very good or not that good. I'd suggest playing a bit with A Better Route Planner (1) for your route(s) to see if it would be a problem or not. (1) https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ https://abetterrouteplanner.com/
- gwbas1c 5y agoThe right time to buy a new car is when your current car doesn't meet your needs. You got your money's worth. Don't feel bad about buying a new one; unless "your needs" are being as frugal as possible.
- vanviegen 5y agoWhy shouldn't you feel bad about buying a new car? Surely the environmental impact of creating such a large piece of machinery must be very significant? I don't care what people do with their money, but let's try to be frugal with our environment.
- david422 5y agoI replaced all my lights with LED's. The intention being that while my old lights continue to work, replacing them now will be better for the environment than waiting for them to die. Without an ability to do a full analysis of all the variables, I made my best guess. I hope it would be the same for a car.
- gwbas1c 5y agoReplacing a gas car with an electric car is always a win for the environment. Driving the car until it's a rust bucket just creates needless carbon emissions.
- vanviegen 5y agoIs that true even if you only drive a relative small amount is miles per year? And how do you know that? Building car takes a lot of energy and uses irreplaceable resources.
- gwbas1c 5y agoWell, I'll leave figuring out the "break even" point as an exercise for you! I suspect it's somewhere around 2-3000 miles a year.
- jpm_sd 5y agoWe recently bought a 2022 Nissan Leaf (SL 62kWh) as a 2nd car and it's solid. (Primary family car is a Honda Odyssey.) The 2022 Leaf has 3x as much range as the 2015 Leaf I leased awhile back. Simpler design and better UI vs. Tesla, and quite a bit cheaper. Numerous driver assist features but no false-advertising "Autopilot". Handles fine in the snow.
- CountHackulus 5y agoAlso a Canadian who was driving a 12 year old Mazda 6. Bought a Kia Niro EV in Sept 2020. Was maybe a bit premature but the charging network in Ontario at least is pretty decent. I've had a 30 amp charger installed at home, and I've managed to do Toronto->Ottawa->Toronto in a single day without much issue. The lack of government rebates is really annoying right now, but I don't think the demand is any less. There were only 3 Kia dealerships in Toronto dealing with EVs and they each brought in a single Niro EV per week. Made negotiating on price kind of hard (though not impossible). That said, I'm with the other people, when your current car is no longer worth it, that's when the right time to get a new car is, and if your car usage lines up well with EVs, it's a great time to transition.
- tomc1985 5y ago2-3 years at least. I drive a 2010 toyota and I expect at least another ten years out of it
- thangalin 5y agoI blogged about a bash script and R program that extrapolate the return-on-investment for switching from an ICE to an EV: https://dave.autonoma.ca/blog/2019/08/06/typesetting-markdown-part-7/ https://dave.autonoma.ca/blog/2019/08/06/typesetting-markdow... The variables are defined as interpolated values in a YAML file.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- xeromal 5y agoIf you live in a part of Canada that is pretty cold, I would do a lot of tests before committing to a specific car. I have a model S and while it's an incredible car, its range is about 40% less if I drive it up North. I live in SoCal though so I don't have issues.
- hinkley 5y agoI have a similarly aged car. If not for the pandemic and the lousy mpg of vehicles I might have bought one earlier. I had my eye on the Ioniq until I saw the EV6, but it’s about 15% more expensive than I thought it was going to be (probably got my wires crossed between the 2 vehicles) and you have to buy the high end one to get a sun roof, so now I’m not sure what I’m gonna do.