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The bet sizing isn't totally implausible if the rest of the data is accurate: The article implies he started out on double-zero machines with a 5.3% house edge
by hansvm 5y ago
The bet sizing isn't totally implausible if the rest of the data is accurate:
The article implies he started out on double-zero machines with a 5.3% house edge. Assume 1 roll per minute and a Kelly-sized bet:
- It'd take on average 87h to 50x your bankroll at a 2.7% edge (half the supposed house edge). You're on average approximately doubling your money with every win, so he _might_ have just gotten a few more wins in the night than expected, but that would be very lucky.
- It'd take 9.5h on average to 50x your bankroll at a 7% edge (1.5x the supposed house edge). That's very achievable in a long night, and you're approximately quadrupling your bankroll every win, so just being a little lucky with a single extra win would drastically cut down the total time.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]