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> Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? No and yes. He's taking it slowly because he knows the West won't interfere. It'

> Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? No and yes. He's taking it slowly because he knows the West won't interfere. It's not a blitz, it's a siege.

pjc50 5y ago
The initial paratroopers at the airports plus fast armor columns all indicated a blitz approach. Those have already been destroyed. It's no longer on the original plan, and the West is interfering. The longer it takes the more weapons we can ship them, and everyone's running around looking for new types of economic sanctions which can be applied against Russia.
- hunterb123 5y ago
  Russia is no stranger to sanctions, it doesn't mean much. Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in. The main point was he knew there would be no military response from the West so surrounding, cutting off the capitol, and slowly taking it through attrition is possible. Paratroopers/fast armor columns and sieges aren't mutually exclusive, they can be used to probe weaknesses in a siege.
  - pjc50 5y ago
    > Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in There's a traffic jam of refugees at the border, but the roads, railways and airports are still there and in Ukranian control? I don't see what obstacle there is.
bigodbiel 5y ago
It was always blitz. They expected capitulation by Sunday, with some ongoing attrition medium term. This is both from US Intel and now confirmation via a deleted, but luckily web archived, article/commentary on one of their major state-media sites, praising the (now impossible) “success” and their resurgence, while also flaunting the west.
- hunterb123 5y ago
  I disagree with the premise the article verifies that, that could have been planned for release at any time. I don't know what US intel you're referring to, so no comment. In the end, we shall see, but from their positioning imo it looks like a siege.
- dvdkon 5y ago
  Could you please post a link to the pulled article?
  - bigodbiel 5y ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493
koonsolo 5y ago
A siege of what? Land? Because the Ukrainians seem to prefer to die over living under Russian suppression.

> Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? No and yes. He's taking it slowly because he knows the West won't interfere. It's not a blitz, it's a siege.

pjc50 5y ago

The initial paratroopers at the airports plus fast armor columns all indicated a blitz approach. Those have already been destroyed. It's no longer on the original plan, and the West is interfering. The longer it takes the more weapons we can ship them, and everyone's running around looking for new types of economic sanctions which can be applied against Russia.

hunterb123 5y ago
Russia is no stranger to sanctions, it doesn't mean much. Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in. The main point was he knew there would be no military response from the West so surrounding, cutting off the capitol, and slowly taking it through attrition is possible. Paratroopers/fast armor columns and sieges aren't mutually exclusive, they can be used to probe weaknesses in a siege.
- pjc50 5y ago
  > Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in There's a traffic jam of refugees at the border, but the roads, railways and airports are still there and in Ukranian control? I don't see what obstacle there is.

bigodbiel 5y ago

It was always blitz. They expected capitulation by Sunday, with some ongoing attrition medium term. This is both from US Intel and now confirmation via a deleted, but luckily web archived, article/commentary on one of their major state-media sites, praising the (now impossible) “success” and their resurgence, while also flaunting the west.

hunterb123 5y ago
I disagree with the premise the article verifies that, that could have been planned for release at any time. I don't know what US intel you're referring to, so no comment. In the end, we shall see, but from their positioning imo it looks like a siege.
dvdkon 5y ago
Could you please post a link to the pulled article?
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493

koonsolo 5y ago

A siege of what? Land? Because the Ukrainians seem to prefer to die over living under Russian suppression.