4 ms·

For Russia? Yes. For Putin? No.

trompetenaccoun 5y ago
That depends entirely - what was the goal of this attack in the first place? Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? It's possible. His soldiers look unmotivated, even unprepared though. Maybe it's part of a larger strategy. We might see more crisis popping up soon.
- jnsaff2 5y ago
  In soviet times (and possibly any other tyrant dictator era) the dictator was told what he wanted to hear or be (literally or figuratively) dead. So perfectly valid assumption is that command chain inflated the capabilities and morale of the army wildly. Also, I think it would be naive to think that the army is the one place were kleptocracy is not stealing from. So who knows, maybe the tyrant is playing 5D chess and shit is going to go really bad or he could be playing 1D chess because ...
- hunterb123 5y ago
  > Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? No and yes. He's taking it slowly because he knows the West won't interfere. It's not a blitz, it's a siege.
  - pjc50 5y ago
    The initial paratroopers at the airports plus fast armor columns all indicated a blitz approach. Those have already been destroyed. It's no longer on the original plan, and the West is interfering. The longer it takes the more weapons we can ship them, and everyone's running around looking for new types of economic sanctions which can be applied against Russia.
    - hunterb123 5y ago
      Russia is no stranger to sanctions, it doesn't mean much. Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in. The main point was he knew there would be no military response from the West so surrounding, cutting off the capitol, and slowly taking it through attrition is possible. Paratroopers/fast armor columns and sieges aren't mutually exclusive, they can be used to probe weaknesses in a siege.
      - pjc50 5y ago
        > Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in There's a traffic jam of refugees at the border, but the roads, railways and airports are still there and in Ukranian control? I don't see what obstacle there is.
  - bigodbiel 5y ago
    It was always blitz. They expected capitulation by Sunday, with some ongoing attrition medium term. This is both from US Intel and now confirmation via a deleted, but luckily web archived, article/commentary on one of their major state-media sites, praising the (now impossible) “success” and their resurgence, while also flaunting the west.
    - hunterb123 5y ago
      I disagree with the premise the article verifies that, that could have been planned for release at any time. I don't know what US intel you're referring to, so no comment. In the end, we shall see, but from their positioning imo it looks like a siege.
    - dvdkon 5y ago
      Could you please post a link to the pulled article?
      - bigodbiel 5y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    A siege of what? Land? Because the Ukrainians seem to prefer to die over living under Russian suppression.
- BLKNSLVR 5y ago
  I can't help but think there's something else happening in the background, or that this is part of something larger. It feels like a distraction because the "goal" seems ... both unclear and not worth the reputation damage.
  - bigodbiel 5y ago
    A small elite of oligarchs can now completely buy the whole country cheaply using up the dollars they stacked under their mattresses, having all been forewarned of what was to happen.
    - BLKNSLVR 5y ago
      How much more cheaply, and will they be saving more than the sanctions cost them? I would have thought that if they could buy it now / soon, then they could probably have bought it at not much a percentage premium prior. I'm not across the realpolitik of this kind of thing though, but interested to learn.
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    An old colleague once told me, if it's either really stupid, or extremely genius, most of the time it's the former. In all those years after hearing this, it has always been the former :D.
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  Liberate the country (well half the country up til Dniepr river).
  - ascold 5y ago
    Liberate from who? We have a russian-speaking president of Jewish origin who is voted by 73% of the population, most of them from the russian-speaking South East. All of the ultra right wing nationalist parties could not even get into the Parliament. Putin calls nazis everyone who is against his plans to fulfill his dreams about rebuilding the empire. Today (Feb 28) he was bombing the russian-speaking cities, the population he said he wants to free from some imaginary "nazis".

That depends entirely - what was the goal of this attack in the first place? Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? It's possible. His soldiers look unmotivated, even unprepared though. Maybe it's part of a larger strategy. We might see more crisis popping up soon.

jnsaff2 5y ago
In soviet times (and possibly any other tyrant dictator era) the dictator was told what he wanted to hear or be (literally or figuratively) dead. So perfectly valid assumption is that command chain inflated the capabilities and morale of the army wildly. Also, I think it would be naive to think that the army is the one place were kleptocracy is not stealing from. So who knows, maybe the tyrant is playing 5D chess and shit is going to go really bad or he could be playing 1D chess because ...
hunterb123 5y ago
> Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? No and yes. He's taking it slowly because he knows the West won't interfere. It's not a blitz, it's a siege.
- pjc50 5y ago
  The initial paratroopers at the airports plus fast armor columns all indicated a blitz approach. Those have already been destroyed. It's no longer on the original plan, and the West is interfering. The longer it takes the more weapons we can ship them, and everyone's running around looking for new types of economic sanctions which can be applied against Russia.
  - hunterb123 5y ago
    Russia is no stranger to sanctions, it doesn't mean much. Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in. The main point was he knew there would be no military response from the West so surrounding, cutting off the capitol, and slowly taking it through attrition is possible. Paratroopers/fast armor columns and sieges aren't mutually exclusive, they can be used to probe weaknesses in a siege.
    - pjc50 5y ago
      > Ukraine can barely get people out much less weapons in There's a traffic jam of refugees at the border, but the roads, railways and airports are still there and in Ukranian control? I don't see what obstacle there is.
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  It was always blitz. They expected capitulation by Sunday, with some ongoing attrition medium term. This is both from US Intel and now confirmation via a deleted, but luckily web archived, article/commentary on one of their major state-media sites, praising the (now impossible) “success” and their resurgence, while also flaunting the west.
  - hunterb123 5y ago
    I disagree with the premise the article verifies that, that could have been planned for release at any time. I don't know what US intel you're referring to, so no comment. In the end, we shall see, but from their positioning imo it looks like a siege.
  - dvdkon 5y ago
    Could you please post a link to the pulled article?
    - bigodbiel 5y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30492493
- koonsolo 5y ago
  A siege of what? Land? Because the Ukrainians seem to prefer to die over living under Russian suppression.
BLKNSLVR 5y ago
I can't help but think there's something else happening in the background, or that this is part of something larger. It feels like a distraction because the "goal" seems ... both unclear and not worth the reputation damage.
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  A small elite of oligarchs can now completely buy the whole country cheaply using up the dollars they stacked under their mattresses, having all been forewarned of what was to happen.
  - BLKNSLVR 5y ago
    How much more cheaply, and will they be saving more than the sanctions cost them? I would have thought that if they could buy it now / soon, then they could probably have bought it at not much a percentage premium prior. I'm not across the realpolitik of this kind of thing though, but interested to learn.
- koonsolo 5y ago
  An old colleague once told me, if it's either really stupid, or extremely genius, most of the time it's the former. In all those years after hearing this, it has always been the former :D.
bigodbiel 5y ago
Liberate the country (well half the country up til Dniepr river).
- ascold 5y ago
  Liberate from who? We have a russian-speaking president of Jewish origin who is voted by 73% of the population, most of them from the russian-speaking South East. All of the ultra right wing nationalist parties could not even get into the Parliament. Putin calls nazis everyone who is against his plans to fulfill his dreams about rebuilding the empire. Today (Feb 28) he was bombing the russian-speaking cities, the population he said he wants to free from some imaginary "nazis".